HKU POP releases survey on Hong Kong people's ethnic identityBack

Press Release June 28, 2011

Abstract

The latest surveys conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong show that if we use a dichotomy of 'Hong Kong citizens' versus 'Chinese citizens', the proportion of Hong Kong people identifying themselves as 'Hong Kong citizens' outnumber that of 'Chinese citizens' both in their narrow and broad senses, by about 20 to 30 percentage points. If we use 'identity indices' ranging between 0 and 100 to measure their strengths (the higher the index, the stronger the identity), Hong Kong people's feeling is strongest as 'Hong Kong citizens', followed by 'Asians', then 'members of the Chinese race', 'Chinese citizens', 'global citizens', and finally 'citizens of the PRC'. Combining both measurements, Hong Kong people feel strongest as 'Hong Kong citizens', then followed by a number of cultural identities. The feeling of being 'citizens of the PRC' is comparatively much weaker than other identities. The sampling error of ratings is not more than +/-2.4 while the maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the surveys is between 66% and 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the identity index survey is 1,028 successful interviews, not 1,028 x 68.4% response rate, while the sample size of the sense of ethnic identity survey is 520 successful interviews, not 520 x 65.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest survey on people's ethnic identity. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year end. Herewith the latest contact information:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]	Sampling error of ethnicity indices^[6]
17-22/6/2011 (Identity index survey)	1,028	68.4%	+/-3%	+/-2.4
21-22/6/2011 (Sense of ethnic identity survey)	520	65.7%	+/-4%	--

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent figures on Hong Kong people's sense of ethnic identity are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	8-11/12/09	9-13/6/10	13-16/12/10	21-22/6/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,004	1,013	520	--
Overall response rate	69.2%	68.2%	67.4%	65.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Identified themselves as "Hong Kong citizens"	38%^[9]	25%^[9]	36%^[9]	44+/-4%	+8%^[9]
Identified themselves as "Chinese citizens"	24%^[9]	28%^[9]	21%^[9]	23+/-4%	+2%
Identified themselves with a mixed identity of "Hong Kong citizens" plus "Chinese citizens"^[3]	37%^[9]	46%^[9]	41%^[9]	32+/-4%	-9%^[9]
Identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in broad sense	61%^[9]	57%^[9]	63%^[9]	65+/-4%	+2%
Identified themselves as "Chinese People" in broad sense	37%^[9]	43%^[9]	35%^[9]	34+/-4%	-1%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] This means the percentage of "Chinese Hong Kong citizens" plus "Hong Kong Chinese citizens".
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

When asked to make a choice among 4 given identities, namely, "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "Hong Kong Chinese citizens", 44% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong citizens", 23% as "Chinese citizens", 21% as "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", while 10% identified themselves as "Hong Kong Chinese citizens". In other words, 65% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Hong Kong citizens" or "Chinese Hong Kong citizens"), whereas 34% identified themselves as "Chinese People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Chinese citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese citizens"), 32% chose a mixed identity of "Hong Kong citizens plus Chinese citizens" (i.e. either as "Chinese Hong Kong citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese citizens").

Because the concepts of "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "Hong Kong Chinese citizens" may overlap with each other, and making a one-in-four choice may not reflect the actual strengths of one's ethnic identities, POP has right from the beginning conducted parallel tests on the strengths of people's separate identities as "Hong Kong citizens" and "Chinese citizens" using a scale of 0-10. In June 2007, POP expanded its study to include four new identities for strength rating, namely, "citizens of PRC", "members of the Chinese race", "Asians" and "global citizens". In December 2008, the study was further expanded by including separate importance ratings for different identities, and the compilation of a separate index for each identity using geometric means. Herewith the latest results:

Date of survey		8-11/12/09		9-13/6/10		13-16/12/10		17-22/6/11		Latest change
Sample base^[11]		525-563		531-558		528-550		503-596		--
Finding		Finding		Finding		Finding		Finding and error^[10]		--
Strength rating of being "Hong Kong citizens"	Identity index of being "Hong Kong citizens" ^[13]	8.14^[12]	76.7	7.90^[12]	74.8 ^[12]	8.12^[12]	77.7^[12]	7.63 +/-0.19	74.7 +/-1.7	-0.49^[12]	-3.0^[12]
Importance rating of being "Hong Kong citizens" ^[13]		7.44		7.38		7.62^[12]		7.50 +/-0.19		-0.12
Strength rating of being "Asians"	Identity index of being "Asians" ^[13]	7.80	72.9	7.96	73.4	7.45^[12]	69.3^[12]	7.63 +/-0.18	71.2 +/-1.8	+0.18	+1.9^[12]
Importance rating of being "Asians" ^[13]		7.03		7.07		6.67^[12]		6.88 +/-0.21		+0.21
Strength rating of being "Members of the Chinese race"	Identity index of being "Members of the Chinese race" ^[13]	7.78	75.2	7.87	76.1	7.42^[12]	72.1^[12]	7.29 +/-0.21	70.8 +/-2.1	-0.13	-1.3
Importance rating of being "Members of the Chinese race" ^[13]		7.40		7.49		7.12^[12]		7.06 +/-0.22		-0.06
Strength rating of being "Chinese citizens"	Identity index of being "Chinese citizens" ^[13]	7.79	76.1	7.63	74.5	7.10^[12]	69.7^[12]	7.24 +/-0.21	70.7 +/-2.0	+0.14	+1.0
Importance rating of being "Chinese citizens" ^[13]		7.59		7.42		7.01^[12]		7.08 +/-0.22		+0.07
Strength rating of being "global citizens"	Identity index of being "global citizens" ^[13]	6.73	64.5	6.87	65.6	6.66	64.6	6.88 +/-0.22	67.0 +/-1.9	+0.22	+2.4^[12]
Importance rating of being "global citizens" ^[13]		6.39		6.51		6.47		6.65 +/-0.23		+0.18
Strength rating of being "citizens of PRC"	Identity index of being "citizens of PRC" ^[13]	6.92	66.9	6.38^[12]	61.6^[12]	6.27	60.8	6.41 +/-0.25	62.3 +/-2.4	+0.14	+1.5
Importance rating of being "citizens of PRC" ^[13]		6.71		6.20^[12]		6.07		6.31 +/-0.25		+0.24

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.25 and sampling error of identity indices not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Since December 2008, the sub-sample size of these questions is controlled at slightly over 500 cases.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] New items since December 2008. "Identity index" is calculated for each identity of a respondent by taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings of a certain identity, multiply by 10. If either the strength or importance rating of a respondent is missing, it is substituted by the sample mean of that identity.

Latest findings showed that the identity ratings for "Hong Kong citizens", "Asians", "members of the Chinese race" and "Chinese citizens" were 7.63, 7.63, 7.29 and 7.24 marks respectively. Using the same rating method, the strength of people's identity as "global citizens" and "citizens of PRC" were 6.88 and 6.41 marks respectively. As for the importance ratings, "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "members of the Chinese race" scored 7.50, 7.08 and 7.06 marks respectively, while those for "Asians", "global citizens" and "citizens of PRC" were 6.88, 6.65 and 6.31 marks respectively.

Taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings of each respondent and then multiply it by 10, we have an 'identity index' for the respondent for a certain identity between 0 and 100, with 0 meaning no feeling, 100 meaning extremely strong feeling, and 50 meaning half and half. Using these identity indices, the rank order of Hong Kong people's six identities were "Hong Kong citizens", "Asians", "members of the Chinese race", "Chinese citizens", "global citizens" and "citizens of PRC". Their scores were 74.7, 71.2, 70.8, 70.7, 67.0 and 62.3 marks respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 6 to 16, 2010 while this survey was conducted from June 17 to 22, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/6/11	Government proposes methods for the $6,000 handouts for HK residents.
13/6/11	Wang Guangya, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council visits Hong Kong.
8/6/11	The Court of Final Appeal in Hong Kong for the first time seeks an interpretation from the National People's Congress Standing Committee.
4/6/11	150,000 people gather at the Victoria Park in remembrance of the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident.
4/6/11	Li Na becomes the first Chinese to claim her first tennis Grand Slam title.
6/5/11	"The 2011 Blue Book of City Competitiveness in China" shows HK is losing its competitiveness.
6/4/11	Ai Weiwei is arrested for suspected economic crimes.
14/3/11	Premier Wen Jiabao advises HK to plan developments and resolve social conflicts.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
19/1/11	President Hu Jintao arrives in US for state visit.
14/1/11	The grown-up mainland children of Hong Kong people are allowed the right of abode in Hong Kong.
29/12/10	Hong Kong people concerns Zhao Lianhai's case.

Commentary

Robert Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that if we use a dichotomy of 'Hong Kong citizens' versus 'Chinese citizens', the proportion of Hong Kong people identifying themselves as 'Hong Kong citizens' outnumber that of 'Chinese citizens' both in their narrow and broad senses, by about 20 to 30 percentage points. If we use 'identity indices' ranging between 0 and 100 to measure their strengths (the higher the index, the stronger the identity), Hong Kong people's feeling is strongest as 'Hong Kong citizens', followed by 'Asians', then 'members of the Chinese race', 'Chinese citizens', 'global citizens', and finally 'citizens of the PRC'. Combining both measurements, Hong Kong people feel strongest as 'Hong Kong citizens', then followed by a number of cultural identities. The feeling of being 'citizens of the PRC' is comparatively much weaker than other identities. As for the reasons behind the ups and downs of these figures, we will leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 30, 2011 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 5, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SARG