HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators, and survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on June 21, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,034 Hong Kong people between 13 and 16 June, 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central governments have both plummeted, to slightly over 30%, which are 7-year and 11-year low respectively. People's net trust in our local government now stands at positive 6 percentage points, while that of the Central government now stands at zero. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 16 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has not changed much, at over 60%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has slightly dropped, while their confidence in China's future has significantly dropped. Both have remained high, with net confidence standing at positive 28 and positive 60 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in "one country, two systems" has remained stable, with a net confidence at positive 25 percentage points, whereas those who consider 'one country, two systems' applicable to Taiwan remains at around 40%. Besides, people's confidence in reunification across the strait has remained stable over the past three months, with a net confidence of positive 6 percentage points. Further analysis shows that our "post 80s" distrust the Central government much more than the "non post 80s". The incidents of Liu Xiaobo, Zhao Lianhai, Ai Weiwei, as well as the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident, may be the reasons. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rates of the surveys are 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,034 successful interviews, not 1,034 x 66.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems", as well as various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
13-16/6/2011	1,034	66.5%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, people's confidence in the future and the views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey^[7]	6/2010	9/2010	12/2010	3/2011	6/2011	Latest Change
Total sample size^[8]	1,004	1,011	1,013	1,003/1,000	1,034	--
Overall response rate	68.2%	65.3%	67.4%	65.4%/64.2%	66.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[9]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[10]	41%^[11]	53%^[11]	44%^[11]	42%	34+/-4%	-8%^[11]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[10]	31%^[11]	16%^[11]	22%^[11]	28%^[11]	28+/-4%	--
Mean value^[10]	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=989)	3.4+/-0.1^[11] (Base=994)	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base=996)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=553)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=503)	-0.1
Trust in Beijing Government^[10]	42%^[11]	42%	37%^[11]	44%^[11]	31+/-4%	-13%^[11]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[10]	32%	22%^[11]	32%^[11]	24%^[11]	31+/-4%	+7%^[11]
Mean value^[10]	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=975)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=965)	3.0+/-0.1^[11] (Base=974)	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base=515)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=488)	-0.2^[11]
Trust in Taiwan Government^[10]	18%	13%^[11]	14%	19%^[11]	16+/-3%	-3%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[10]	43%^[11]	35%^[11]	42%^[11]	43%	32+/-4%	-11%^[11]
Mean value^[10]	2.6+/-0.1^[11] (Base=813)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=763)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=831)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=434)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=419)	+0.1
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	73%	71%	75%^[11]	63%^[11]	65+/-4%	+2%
Taiwan independence: Support rate	17%^[11]	15%	15%	20%^[11]	19+/-3%	-1%
Confidence in HK's future	60%^[11]	69%^[11]	62%^[11]	63%	59+/-4%	-4%
No-confidence in HK's future	35%^[11]	23%^[11]	30%^[11]	32%	31+/-4%	-1%
Confidence in China's future	83%^[11]	81%	77%^[11]	83%^[11]	75+/-4%	-8%^[11]
No-confidence in China's future	13%^[11]	13%	15%	10%^[11]	15+/-3%	+5%^[11]
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	57%^[11]	62%^[11]	61%	62%	59+/-4%	-3%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	39%^[11]	29%^[11]	32%	32%	34+/-4%	+2%
Believed 'one country, two systems' was applicable to Taiwan	46%^[11]	47%	50%	40%^[11]	44+/-4%	+4%
Believed 'one country, two systems' was not applicable to Taiwan	41%^[11]	38%	38%	42%	40+/-4%	-2%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	53%^[11]	49%^[11]	49%	45%	46+/-4%	+1%
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	37%	38%	42%^[11]	44%	40+/-4%	-4%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	41%	37%^[11]	42%^[11]	--	39+/-4%	-3%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	43%	43%	43%	--	37+/-4%	-6%^[11]

[7] Surveys on trust and distrust of the HKSAR Government, Beijing Government and Taiwan Government and confidence in HK's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" were conducted in 9-13/6/2010, 7-11/9/2010, 13-16/12/2010 and 1-9/3/2011 respectively. And, surveys on Taiwan independence, applicability of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan and confidence in cross-strait reunification were conducted in 9-13/6/2010, 7-11/9/2010, 6-10/12/2010 and 8-14/3/2011 respectively.
[8] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 503 to 544, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 34% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 31% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 16% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.0, 3.0 and 2.7 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 59% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 75% had confidence in China's future, while 59% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems". In addition, latest survey revealed that 65% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 19% showed support. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 44% gave a positive view while 40% gave a negative answer. 46% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 40% expressed no confidence. 39% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 37% opposed.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in Beijing Government by age:

Date of survey: 1-9/3/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/ distrust in Beijing Government^[12]	Trust	21+/-8% (21)	28+/-7% (51)	38+/-7% (82)	31+/-4% (155)
	Half-half	32+/-9% (32)	38+/-7% (70)	31+/-6% (68)	34+/-4% (170)
	Distrust	45+/-10% (46)	31+/-7% (59)	24+/-6% (51)	31+/-4% (156)
	Don't know/ hard to say	2+/-2% (2)	3+/-3% (6)	7+/-3% (16)	5+/-2% (24)
	Total	100% (101)	100% (186)	100% (217)	100% (505)
	Mean value^[12]	2.6+/-0.2 (Base=99)	2.9+/-0.2 (Base=180)	3.2+/-0.2 (Base=202)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=481)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey was conducted from March 8 to 14, 2011 while this survey was conducted from June 13 to 16, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/6/11	Government proposes methods for the $6,000 handouts for HK residents.
13/6/11	Wang Guangya, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council visits Hong Kong.
8/6/11	The Court of Final Appeal in Hong Kong for the first time seeks an interpretation from the National People's Congress Standing Committee.
4/6/11	1) 150,000 people gather at the Victoria Park in remembrance of the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident.
31/5/11	Donald Tsang's flat is reported to have illegal structures in the balcony.
28/5/11	Food and drinks from Taiwan contain a cancer-causing plastic additive.
6/5/11	"The 2011 Blue Book of City Competitiveness in China" shows HK is losing its competitiveness.
21/4/11	Hong Kong inflation becomes severe.
6/4/11	Ai Weiwei is arrested for suspected economic crimes.
14/3/11	Premier Wen Jiabao advises HK to plan developments and resolve social conflicts.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central governments have both plummeted, to slightly over 30%, which are 7-year and 11-year low respectively. People's net trust in our local government now stands at positive 6 percentage points, while that of the Central government now stands at zero. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 16 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has not changed much, at over 60%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has slightly dropped, while their confidence in China's future has significantly dropped. Both have remained high, with net confidence standing at positive 28 and positive 60 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in 'one country, two systems' has remained stable, with a net confidence at positive 25 percentage points, whereas those who consider 'one country, two systems' applicable to Taiwan remains at around 40%. Besides, people's confidence in reunification across the strait has remained stable over the past three months, with a net confidence of positive 6 percentage points. Further analysis shows that our 'post 80s' distrust the Central government much more than the 'non post 80s'. The incidents of Liu Xiaobo, Zhao Lianhai, Ai Weiwei, as well as the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident, may be the reasons. However, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

June 28, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's ethnic identity