HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
| Press Release on June 14, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between June 1 and 8 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and his governing team continue to drop, as many officials registered their historical low popularity figures. Danger is near by, the situation is worrying. Recent events which have eroded the government's popularity include that of illegal housing structures, Jeremy Godfrey, foul start of CE election campaigns, disputes over"real estate hegemony", minimum wage, Budget follow-ups, and so on. The list seems too long to be described. Figures show that CE Donald Tsang's latest support rating stands at 46.5 marks, one step closer to the danger line of 45. Tsang's approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate at 66%, net popularity at negative 43 percentage points. All figures are at their worst since he became CE in 2005, and pushing him to the brink of"disastrous" performance. Indepth analysis shows that the"post 80s" are most critical of his appointment as CE. As for CS Henry Tang, his support rating drops to 45 marks, with an approval rate of 29%. Both figures are at record low since he became CS. His net approval rate has narrowed to positive 2 percentage points. As for the other Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the overall popularity figures of FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. Their net popularity now stands at negative 14 and positive 57 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department, while the approval rate of John Tsang has dropped to another record low since he became FS. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among 11 incumbent Directors have gone down, 2 have gone up while 1 remains unchanged. Among them, the approval rate of Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has gone up by 5 percentage points, while six other Directors have registered significant drops in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, down by 9, 9, 8, 8, 8 and 7 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam register negative popularity, at negative 39, 11 and 9 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that, the approval rate of Matthew Cheung and Michael Suen have dropped to their respective record low, while the disapproval rate of Michael Suen has gone up to record high and passed the 50% benchmark, thereby making his performance"depressing". According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of"ideal" performer any more. Wong Yan-lung and Ambrose Lee now fall under the category of"successful" performer. The performance of York Chow, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam and John Tsang can be labeled as"mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan and Denise Yue can be labeled as"inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang and Michael Suen"depressing". No official falls under the category of"disastrous", but is very close. With July 1 fast approaching and public anger constantly surging, the government should better be prepared. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 69.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [16] Rita Lau resigned from the post of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development on April 8. Our survey on her popularity also stopped on that day. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 46.5 marks, and 23% supported him as the Chief Executive, thus his net approval rate is negative 43%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 45.1, 45.6 and 59.1 marks, and 29%, 23% and 62% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 2%, negative 14% and positive 57% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 58%. His net approval rate is positive 48%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, with approval rate 47%, 42% and 39% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 23%, 22% and 20% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 5th to 11th, as they gained 36%, 34%, 32%, 31%, 26%, 25% and 15% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 24%, positive 11%, positive 10%, positive 18%, negative 11%, negative 9% and negative 39%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into post 80s and non-post 80s. Herewith further analysis of Donald Tsang's rating and support rate by respondents' age:
[17] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
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Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from May 3 to 10, 2011 while this survey was conducted from June 1 to 8, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and his governing team continue to drop, as many officials registered their historical low popularity figures. Danger is near by, the situation is worrying. Recent events which have eroded the government's popularity include that of illegal housing structures, Jeremy Godfrey, foul start of CE election campaigns, disputes over"real estate hegemony", minimum wage, Budget follow-ups, and so on. The list seems too long to be described. Figures show that CE Donald Tsang's latest support rating stands at 46.5 marks, one step closer to the danger line of 45. Tsang's approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate at 66%, net popularity at negative 43 percentage points. All figures are at their worst since he became CE in 2005, and pushing him to the brink of"disastrous" performance. Indepth analysis shows that the"post 80s" are most critical of his appointment as CE. As for CS Henry Tang, his support rating drops to 45 marks, with an approval rate of 29%. Both figures are at record low since he became CS. His net approval rate has narrowed to positive 2 percentage points. As for the other Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the overall popularity figures of FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. Their net popularity now stands at negative 14 and positive 57 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department, while the approval rate of John Tsang has dropped to another record low since he became FS. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among 11 incumbent Directors have gone down, 2 have gone up while 1 remains unchanged. Among them, the approval rate of Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has gone up by 5 percentage points, while six other Directors have registered significant drops in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, down by 9, 9, 8, 8, 8 and 7 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam register negative popularity, at negative 39, 11 and 9 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that, the approval rate of Matthew Cheung and Michael Suen have dropped to their respective record low, while the disapproval rate of Michael Suen has gone up to record high and passed the 50% benchmark, thereby making his performance"depressing". According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of"ideal" performer any more. Wong Yan-lung and Ambrose Lee now fall under the category of"successful" performer. The performance of York Chow, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam and John Tsang can be labeled as"mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan and Denise Yue can be labeled as"inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang and Michael Suen"depressing". No official falls under the category of"disastrous", but is very close. With July 1 fast approaching and public anger constantly surging, the government should better be prepared. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
[18] In one decimal place, the disapproval rate of Donald Tsang was 65.7%.
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
