"POP-NOW Public Sentiment Index Survey" released for the fourth timeBack

Press Release on June 13, 2011

Background

Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In January 2011, POP came into agreement with the"now News Channel" for a project called"Public Sentiment Index". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of public sentiment, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular opinion surveys and other public opinion studies. The survey results will first be released in the"now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption."now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that"now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. This is the fourth release of the survey series, the last one was released on May 9. Please cite the source of the figures when using them.

Latest Figures

The latest survey findings released by POP through now News Channel today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[1]
30/5-3/6/2011	1,007	67.2%	+/-3%

[1] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest findings are as follows:

I. Overall ratings of society's conditions and level of anger

Date of survey		24-28/2/11	21-30/3/11	26/4-2/5/11	30/5-3/6/11	Latest change^[3]
Sample base		1,013	1,018	1,032	1,007	--
Overall response rate		69.4%	62.8%	68.3%	67.2%	--
Latest result		Finding and error ^[2]	Finding and error ^[2]	Finding and error ^[2]	Finding and error^[2]	--
Satisfaction rating of overall society's conditions (0-100)		52.9[4]+/-1.2	53.5+/-1.1	52.1+/-1.1	50.8+/-1.2	-1.3^[4]
Will you use the word"angry" to describe your feeling towards current Hong Kong society?	Yes	26[4]+/-3%	17[4]+/-2%	24+/-3%	27+/-3%	+3%
	No	72[4]+/-3%	81[4]+/-2%	75+/-3%	71+/-3%	-4%^[4]
Rating of"anger" level (0-100)		50.1[4]+/-1.7	45.0[4]+/-1.5	47.3+/-1.4	49.7+/-1.5	+2.4^[4]

[2] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[3] The frequency of survey for this series of question are the same, direct comparison can be made.
[4] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results show that the overall satisfaction rating of society's current conditions now stands at 50.8 marks. This is the lowest since this series of survey started. Besides, 27% of the respondents would describe themselves as"angry", the highest since the beginning of this survey series. And, 71% would not describe themselves as"angry". The mean score of"anger" now stands at 49.7 marks. Please see the following chart for more details:

Chart: The trend of"percentage of anger" and"rating of anger"

II. Specific incidents that made people angry

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in Hong Kong society made you feel angry? (ask those who self-reported"angry", open-ended question, multiple answers allowed)^[6]

Date of survey	26/4-2/5/11	30/5-3/6/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,032	1,007	--
Overall response rate	68.3%	67.2%	--
Latest result	Finding^[5]	Finding and error^[5]	--
The problems of illegal structures in residence (collapsed figures)	--	9+/-2%	--
– Illegal structures in Michael Suen's residence	--	4+/-1%	--
– Illegal structures in Donald Tsang's residence[8]	--	1+/-1%	--
– Other government officials, legislative councillors, the indigenous in New Territories, etc.	--	8+/-2%	--
High property price/housing problems	4+/-1%	9+/-2%	+5%^[7]
Performance of government officials	5+/-1%	4+/-1%	-1%
The Budget Talk (including the arrangement of giving $6000)	10+/-2%	4+/-1%	-6%^[7]
High inflation	3+/-1%	3+/-1%	--
Arguments about minimum wage	5+/-1%	2+/-1%	-3%^[7]
Pregnant women from Mainland China giving birth to children in Hong Kong	2+/-1%	2+/-1%	--
Educational policies (including the arguments of textbooks debundling)	1+/-1%	2+/-1%	+1%
Problems of constitutional and democratic development (legislation of Article 23, freedom of speech, etc.)	<1+/-1%	2+/-1%	+2%^[7]
Demonstration/ violent acts	2+/-1%	2+/-1%	--
Argument of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge judicial review	--	1+/-1%	--
Others (the replacement mechanism of legislative councillors, increase fares of public transports, etc.)	5+/-1%	5+/-1%	--
Don't know	2+/-1%	2+/-1%	--

[5] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[6] The question asked only those who said they were"angry", but all percentages shown are based on overall sample.
[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[8] The incident of illegal structures in Donald Tsang's residence was reported by media starting from June 1.

Others questions:

Recently, the news about illegal structures in residence brought some argument, do you feel"angry" about the performance of xxxx who are involved in this incident?		Yes	No
	Government Officials	55+/-3%	41+/-3%
	Legislative Councillors	53+/-3%	41+/-3%
	New Territories indigenous people	44+/-3%	49+/-3%

Illegal structures were also discovered in Michael Suen's residence previously, do you feel angry about his performance as one of the government officials under the accountibility system?	Yes	No
	58+/-3%	38+/-3%

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in the Hong Kong society made people angry? Results show that 9% of the overall samples mentioned"the problems of illegal structures in residence" and"high property price/housing problems" respectively. In addition, 4% each mentioned"the performance of government officials" and"the Budget Talk". Other answers include"high inflation" (3%),"arguments about minimum wage" (2%),"Pregnant women from Mainland China giving birth to children in Hong Kong" (2%),"educational policies" (2%), and so on. In addition, in the overall sample, 55% would use"angry" to describe their feeling towards the performance of government officials in incidents of illegal structures in residence. As for the performance of the legislative councillors and New Territories indigenous people, a respective of 53% and 44% would use"angry" to describe their feelings towards them. When asking the performance of Michael Suen as a government official under the accountability system in this incident, 58% of the respondents expressed that they feel"angry" towards his performance.

Indepth analyses

Herewith the indepth analysis of people who are"angry" or not and their"rating of anger":

	Date of survey	Will you use the word"angry" to describe your feeling towards current Hong Kong society?			Overall sample
	Date of survey	Yes	No	Don't knoow	Overall sample
Rating of"anger"	30/5-3/6/11	70.9+/-2.2 (267)	41.5+/-1.5 (702)	54.9+/-9.2 (15)	49.7+/-1.5 (984)
	26/4-2/5/11	68.4+/-2.2 (242)	40.5+/-1.5 (750)	50.9+/-10.1 (16)	47.3+/-1.4 (1,008)
	21-30/3/11	68.0+/-2.9 (171)	39.9+/-1.5 (806)	54.5+/-11.4 (13)	45.0+/-1.5 (990)
	24-28/2/11	74.5+/-2.3 (267)	41.0+/-1.7 (715)	51.7+/-10.4 (14)	50.1+/-1.6 (995)
	25-31/1/11	71.1+/-2.9 (199)	41.7+/-1.4 (801)	59.2+/-9.1 (16)	47.7+/-1.4 (1,016)

Commentary

Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on June 13, 2011 in the"now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.

Q: How is the level of public grievances in Hong Kong affected by incidents of"illegal residential structures"?

A: Our latest survey shows that, over half of the respondents are angry with those government officials and legislative councillors with illegal structures in their residences. Their level of anger towards New Territories indigenous people is relatively lower, at 45%. However, 58% are angry at the performance of Michael Suen in this incident as a government official under the accountability system. At the same time, other tracking survey results showed that the overall level of public grievances has gone back to the time when the Budget was just released.

Q: How to interpret the current situation of 'boiling grievance'?

A: The issues of"inflation","Budget proposals","Mainland women giving birth to children in Hong Kong","minimum wage","educational policy" and recently"illegal residential structures" all reflect the very weak position of the SAR Government. When the government's popularity is so low, while lacking legitimacy and consistency, any livelihood issue may blow up simply due to the accumulation of public grievances.

Q: What is the forecast in terms of public grievances?

A: Every year, public grievances become focused in between June 4 and July 1. The demonstration on July 1 will blend many political and livelihood issues together, making the situation very volatile. Exactly how public sentiments will change, and whether new issues will emerge is yet to be seen.