HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in May by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that, compared to three months ago, the ratings of all political groups except DAB have gone down. Among them, those with drops beyond sampling error include HKCTU, HKASPDMC, DP, LSD, CP and FTU, down by 7.0, 5.8, 5.6, 4.6, 4.1 and 2.1 marks respectively. The rows over this year's Budget and also minimum wage have apparently eroded the popularity gains of almost all political groups over the past nine months. Only HKASPDMC, NWS and FTU have more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, HKASPDMC occupies the top position again, but its rating has dropped significantly, due to the fading away of the Szeto Wah effect. NWS and FTU go up by 3 positions each to rank 2nd and 3rd, while HKCTU drops 2 places to rank 4th. CP and DP drop one and four positions respectively to become 5th and 7th, while ADPL advances one position to rank 6th. DAB and LP swap positions to rank the 8th and 9th, while LSD continues to take the 10th position with all-time record low rating this time. It should be noted, however, that our 'Top 10 Political Groups' only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.8 and +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings[5]
3-10/5/11 (First stage naming survey)	1,038	65.3%	+/-3%
23-31/5/11 (Second stage rating survey)	1,033	66.1%	+/-2.9

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from May 3 to 10. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), League of Social Democrats (LSD), Liberal Party (LP), and Civic Party (CP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from May 23 to 31, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	17-20/8/10	17-27/11/10	15-19/2/2011	23-31/5/2011		Latest change
Sample base	1,006	1,001	501-586	552-628		--
Overall response rate	64.4%	69.7%	65.9%	66.1%		--
Finding /Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[6]	Recognition rate	--
HKASPDMC	49.2{4}[8]	49.6 {5}	57.5{1}[8]	51.7+/-2.2 {1}	83%	-5.8[8]
NWS	50.5[7]	52.0[7][8]	52.8{5}	51.0+/-2.0 {2}	64%	-1.8
FTU	50.5{2}[8]	52.8 {1}[8]	52.5{6}	50.4+/-1.8 {3}	88%	-2.1[8]
HKCTU	51.1{1}	52.1 {2}	56.2{2}[8]	49.2+/-1.9 {4}[9]	79%	-7.0[8]
CP	48.9{5}[8]	50.0 {3}	53.3{4}[8][9]	49.2+/-2.0 {5}[9]	81%	-4.1[8]
ADPL	48.3{6}	49.1 {6}	48.5{7}	48.3+/-1.9 {6}	70%	-0.2
DP	49.7{3}[8]	49.9 {4}	53.3{3}[8][9]	47.7+/-1.9 {7}	88%	-5.6[8]
DAB	47.8{7}[8]	48.3 {7}	44.2{9}[8]	46.7+/-2.2 {8}	87%	+2.5[8]
LP	43.7{9}[8]	43.9 {9}	44.6{8}	43.2+/-1.8 {9}	85%	-1.4
LSD	33.6{10}[8]	36.2 {10}[8]	37.3{10}	32.7+/-2.2 {10}	85%	-4.6[8]
New People's Party	--	--	45.8[7]	43.1+/-2.5	49%	-2.7[8]
People Power	--	--	--	36.3+/-2.9	49%	--
Frontier	44.7{8}	47.5 {8}[8]	46.9[7]	--	--	--
Civil Force	42.7[7]	--	--	--	--	--

Findings obtained in second half of February showed that, the best-known political group was the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) which attained 51.7 marks. Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS) and Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) scored 51.0 and 50.4 marks and ranked 2nd and 3rd. The 4th to 8th places were Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU), Civic Party (CP), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), Democratic Party (DP) and Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) attaining 49.2, 49.2, 48.3, 47.7 and 46.7 marks respectively. The 9th and 10th places fell to Liberal Party (LP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD), with a respective score of 43.2 and 32.7. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 50.3 marks. For this latest survey, New People's Party and People Power obtained a support rating of 43.1 and 36.3 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-20/8/10	17-27/11/10	15-19/2/11	23-31/5/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[10]	Overall ranking[11]
HKCTU	51.1	52.1	56.2	49.2	4	52.2	{1}
HKASPDMC	49.2	49.6	57.5	51.7	4	52.0	{2}
FTU	50.5	52.8	52.5	50.4	4	51.6	{3}
CP	48.9	50.0	53.3	49.2	4	50.3	{4}
DP	49.7	49.9	53.3	47.7	4	50.2	{5}
ADPL	48.3	49.1	48.5	48.3	4	48.6	{6}
DAB	47.8	48.3	44.2	46.7	4	46.7	{7}
LP	43.7	43.9	44.6	43.2	4	43.9	{8}
LSD	33.6	36.2	37.3	32.7	4	34.9	{9}
NWS	-	-	52.8	51.0	2	51.9	{10}
Frontier	44.7	47.5	-	--	2	46.1	{11}

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top nine political groups were listed for four times. HKCTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 52.2 marks. HKASPDMC, FTU, CP and DP ranked 2nd to 5th, attaining 52.0, 51.6, 50.3 and 50.2 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 6th to 9th ranks fell to ADPL, DAB, LP and LSD, with respective average ratings of 48.6, 46.7, 43.9 and 34.9 marks. NWS and Frontier were listed twice, now ranked the 10th and 11th with 51.9 and 46.1 marks.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from February 15 to 19 while this survey was conducted from May 23 to 31. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

28/5/11	Food and drinks from Taiwan contain a cancer-causing plastic additive.
27/5/11	Jeremy Godfrey tells political pressure from the highest official levels for a HK$220 million deal.
30/4/11	The minimum wage policy will implement tomorrow.
11/4/11	Contract workers for Government get paid holidays.
28/3/11	Commissioner for Labour Cheuk Wing-hing says pay for days off and meal times does not depends on the Minimum Wage Ordinance.
14/3/11	Premier Wen Jiabao advises HK to plan developments and resolve social conflicts.
9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
6/3/11	Police clash with protestors in Anti-Budget demonstration.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
1/3/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen injured by a protestor.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey of 'Top 10 Political Groups' conducted at the end of May shows that, compared to three months ago, the ratings of all political groups except DAB have gone down. Among them, those with drops beyond sampling error include HKCTU, HKASPDMC, DP, LSD, CP and FTU, down by 7.0, 5.8, 5.6, 4.6, 4.1 and 2.1 marks respectively. The rows over this year's Budget and also minimum wage have apparently eroded the popularity gains of almost all political groups over the past nine months. Only HKASPDMC, NWS and FTU have more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, HKASPDMC occupies the top position again, but its rating has dropped significantly, due to the fading away of the Szeto Wah effect. NWS and FTU go up by 3 positions each to rank 2nd and 3rd, while HKCTU drops 2 places to rank 4th. CP and DP drop one and four positions respectively to become 5th and 7th, while ADPL advances one position to rank 6th. DAB and LP swap positions to rank the 8th and 9th, while LSD continues to take the 10th position with all-time record low rating this time. It should be noted, however, that our 'Top 10 Political Groups' only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• June 9, 2011 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's feeling towards different governments and peoples
• June 14, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials