HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack
| Press Release on May 31, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between 16 and 18 May 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and SAR Government continue to drop. CE's latest support rating now stands at 48.2 marks, with an approval rate of 27%. Both figures are at record low since he became CE in 2005. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 30 percentage points, while his rating approaches the critical point of 45. Every caution should be taken. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has slightly gone down 1 percentage point to 21%, which is also a record low since Donald Tsang became CE. The government's net popularity now stands at negative 22 percentage points. Indepth analyses show that those of age 30 to 49 are most critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, while those of age 50 or above are least critical. It should be noted that the survey was conducted before CE responded to the judicial review of the construction of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, and the disclosure of illegal structures in Michael Suen's residence. How these incidents affect the popularity of CE and the government is yet to be seen. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 64.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 623. [9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.2 marks, and 27% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 21% were satisfied, whereas 43% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, meaning close to "half-half" in general. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of approval rate of Chief Executive by respondents' age:
[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
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Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 22 April to 2 May, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 18 May, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and SAR Government continue to drop. CE's latest support rating now stands at 48.2 marks, with an approval rate of 27%. Both figures are at record low since he became CE in 2005. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 30 percentage points, while his rating approaches the critical point of 45. Every caution should be taken. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has slightly gone down 1 percentage point to 21%, which is also a record low since Donald Tsang became CE. The government's net popularity now stands at negative 22 percentage points. Indepth analyses show that those of age 30 to 49 are most critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, while those of age 50 or above are least critical. It should be noted that the survey was conducted before CE responded to the judicial review of the construction of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, and the disclosure of illegal structures in Michael Suen's residence. How these incidents affect the popularity of CE and the government is yet to be seen. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of the latest popularity figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
