HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in April to May, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest surveys show that compared to three months ago, the popularity of practically all 'top 10' best known Legislative Councillors has dropped. In terms of familiarity, Tam Yiu-chung who occupied the eighth position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by Albert Chan. In terms of absolute ratings, all Councillors who have remained on the list over last two consecutive surveys have registered drops, except Wong Yuk-man who recovers a bit from a very low position. Among them, the ratings of Lee Cheuk-yan, Alan Leong, Emily Lau, Albert Ho, Audrey Eu and Regina Ip have dropped significantly by 8.3, 6.0, 6.0, 5.2, 4.1 and 2.5 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu and Regina Ip both go up one place to rank first and second. Alan Leong drops two places to rank third, Jasper Tsang goes up three places to rank fourth, Lee Cheuk-yan registers his record low rating and drops two places to rank seventh, while the relative ranking of all others remaining on the list have changed no more than one place. Over the past three months, the Councillors' popularity might have been affected by incidents like the implementation of minimum wage, Legco's rejection of initial expenditure, and anti-budget demonstrations. It should be noted however that our list of 'top 10' only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.5 and +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 66.0% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,072 successful interviews, not 1,072 x 65.9% response rate.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures.
[4] When quoting the rating figures of this survey, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6]
11-18/4/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,003	66.0%	+/-3%
22/4-2/5/2011 (Second stage rating survey)	1,072	65.9%	+/-2.2

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Lee Cheuk-yan, Emily Lau and Audrey Eu were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late April, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	26-29/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	20-31/1/11	22/4-2/5/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,010	1,010	1,013	1,017	1,072	--
Overall response rate	69.5%	64.1%	65.4%	67.1%	65.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Audrey Eu	53.9 {2}	55.9{2}[9]	62.2 {1}[9]	60.5 {2}	56.4 {1} +/-1.7	-4.1[9]
Regina Ip	55.1 {1}	--	59.9 {2}	57.9 {3}[9]	55.4 {2} +/-1.5	-2.5[9]
Alan Leong	--	56.2{1}	59.3 {4}[9]	60.8 {1}	54.8 {3} +/-1.7	-6.0[9]
Jasper Tsang	50.3 {7}	53.1{7}[9]	55.3 {6}[9]	52.6 {7}[9]	51.6 {4} +/-1.7	-1.0
Albert Ho	51.2 {5}	55.2{3}[9]	56.7 {5}[9]	56.7 {4}	51.5 {5} +/-1.7	-5.2[9]
Emily Lau	50.8 {6}[9]	54.3{5}[9]	53.0 {8}	55.5 {6}[9]	49.5 {6} +/-1.9	-6.0[9]
Lee Cheuk-yan	52.4 {3}	54.7{4}[9]	--	55.7 {5}	47.4 {7} +/-2.0	-8.3[9]
Albert Chan	--	33.6{8}	39.9[8] [9]	40.1[8]	39.8 {8} +/-2.1	-0.3
Wong Yuk-man	--	28.0{9}	33.8 {9}[9]	33.6 {10}	34.4 {9} +/-2.2	+0.8
Leung Kwok-hung	--	26.5{10}	31.9 {10}[9]	33.8 {9}	32.9 {10} +/-2.2	-0.9
James To	--	--	--	--	51.7[8] +/-1.7	--
Tam Yiu-chung	48.7 {8}	--	54.4 {7}	51.9 {8}[9]	48.0[8] +/-1.8	-3.9[9]
Tanya Chan	--	--	57.2[8]	58.3[8]	--	--
Andrew Cheng	--	54.1{6}	59.5 {3}[9]	--	--	--
Cheung Man-kwong	53.4[8]	54.9[8]	--	--	--	--
Lee Wing-tat	51.6 {4}	53.0[8]	--	--	--	--
Paul Tse	47.5 {9}	--	--	--	--	--
Lau Wong-fat	42.1 {10}	--	--	--	--	--
Lau Kong-wah	46.0[8][9]	--	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 521 and 579, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that Audrey Eu was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 56.4 marks while Regina Ip ranked the second with 55.4 marks. Alan Leong, Jasper Tsang and Albert Ho ranked the 3rd to 5th with 54.8, 51.6 and 51.5 marks correspondingly. The 6th and 7th ranks went to Emily Lau and Lee Cheuk-yan who attained 49.5 and 47.4 marks respectively. Albert Chan, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung ranked the 8th to 10th, attaining 39.8, 34.4 and 32.9 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 53.9 marks, while that for the top 10 was 47.4 marks. For this latest survey, James To and Tam Yiu-chung obtained support ratings of 51.7 and 48.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	20-31/1/11	22/4-2/5/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[10]	Overall ranking[11]
Audrey Eu	55.9	62.2	60.5	56.4	4	58.7	1
Alan Leong	56.2	59.3	60.8	54.8	4	57.8	2
Albert Ho	55.2	56.7	56.7	51.5	4	55.0	3
Jasper Tsang	53.1	55.3	52.6	51.6	4	53.1	4
Emily Lau	54.3	53.0	55.5	49.5	4	53.1	5
Wong Yuk-man	28.0	33.8	33.6	34.4	4	32.5	6
Leung Kwok-hung	26.5	31.9	33.8	32.9	4	31.3	7
Regina Ip	-	59.9	57.9	55.4	3	57.7	8
Lee Cheuk-yan	54.7	-	55.7	47.4	3	52.6	9
Andrew Cheng	54.1	59.5	-	-	2	56.8	10
Tam Yiu-chung	-	54.4	51.9	-	2	53.2	11
Albert Chan	33.6	-	-	39.8	2	36.7	12

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that seven Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 58.7 marks, Alan Leong, Albert Ho, Jasper Tsang and Emily Lau who ranked the 2nd to 5th and attained 57.8, 55.0, 53.1 and 53.1 marks correspondingly. Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung ranked the 6th and 7th, with a respective of 32.5 and 31.3 marks. Regina Ip and Lee Cheuk-yan have been on the list for three times, attaining 57.7 and 52.6 marks on average, and ranked the 8th and 9th. Andrew Cheng, Tam Yiu-chung and Albert Chan have been on the list for two times and ranked the 10th to 12th, attaining 56.8, 53.2 and 36.7 marks correspondingly.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 20 to 31, 2011 while this survey was conducted from April 22 to May 2, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

30/4/11	The minimum wage policy implements.
21/4/11	Hong Kong inflation becomes severe.
11/4/11	Contract workers for Government get paid holidays.
9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
6/3/11	Police clash with protestors in Anti-Budget demonstration.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
1/3/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen injured by a protestor.
24/2/11	The annual budget receives more reproof than praise.
23/2/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang unveils the annual budget of 2011-2012.
11/2/11	Government adjusts Work Incentive Transport Subsidy Scheme.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity of practically all 'top 10' best known Legislative Councillors has dropped. In terms of familiarity, Tam Yiu-chung who occupied the eighth position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by Albert Chan. In terms of absolute ratings, all Councillors who have remained on the list over last two consecutive surveys have registered drops, except Wong Yuk-man who recovers a bit from a very low position. Among them, the ratings of Lee Cheuk-yan, Alan Leong, Emily Lau, Albert Ho, Audrey Eu and Regina Ip have dropped significantly by 8.3, 6.0, 6.0, 5.2, 4.1 and 2.5 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu and Regina Ip both go up one place to rank first and second. Alan Leong drops two places to rank third, Jasper Tsang goes up three places to rank fourth, Lee Cheuk-yan registers his record low rating and drops two places to rank seventh, while the relative ranking of all others remaining on the list have changed no more than one place. Over the past three months, the Councillors' popularity might have been affected by incidents like the implementation of minimum wage, Legco's rejection of initial expenditure, and anti-budget demonstrations. It should be noted however that our list of 'top 10' only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

• May 17, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials