"POP-NOW Public Sentiment Index Survey" released for the third timeBack

Press Release on May 9, 2011

Background

Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In January 2011, POP came into agreement with the"now News Channel" for a project called"Public Sentiment Index". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of public sentiment, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular opinion surveys and other public opinion studies. The survey results will first be released in the"now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption."now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that"now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. This is the third release of the survey series, the last one was released on April 4. Please cite the source of the figures when using them.

Latest Figures

The latest survey findings released by POP through now News Channel today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[1]
26/4-2/5/2011	1,032	68.3%	+/-3%

[1] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest findings are as follows:

I. Overall ratings of society's conditions and level of anger

Date of survey		25-31/1/11	24-28/2/11	21-30/3/11	26/4-2/5/11	Latest change ^[4]
Sample base		1,035	1,013	1,018	1,032	--
Overall response rate		65.9%	69.4%	62.8%	68.3%	--
Latest result		Finding and error ^[2]	Finding and error ^[2]	Finding and error ^[2]	Finding and error ^[2]	--
Satisfaction rating of overall society's conditions (0-100)		55.2+/-1.0	52.9^[4]+/-1.2	53.5+/-1.1	52.1+/-1.1	-1.4^[4]
Will you use the word"angry" to describe your feeling towards current Hong Kong society?	Yes	19+/-2%	26^[4]+/-3%	17^[4]+/-2%	24+/-3%	+7%^[4]
	No	79+/-3%	72^[4]+/-3%	81^[4]+/-2%	75+/-3%	-6%^[4]
Rating of"anger" level (0-100)		47.7+/-1.4	50.1^[4]+/-1.7	45.0^[4]+/-1.5	47.3+/-1.4	+2.3^[4]
Anger tolerance before taking to the street (0-100) ^[3]		--	--	74.8+/-1.4	73.5+/-1.4	-1.3

[2] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[3] The frequency of survey for this series of question are different, comparison should be made within the same period of survey.
[4] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results show that the overall satisfaction rating of society's current conditions now stands at 52.1 marks. Besides, 24% of the respondents would describe themselves as"angry", while 75% would not. The mean score of"anger" now stands at 47.3 marks. Moreover, the threshold for people taking to the street now stands at 73.5 points of anger.

II. Specific incidents that made people angry

Date of survey			21-30/3/11	26/4-2/5/11	Latest change
Sample base			1,018	1,032	--
Overall response rate			62.8%	68.3%	--
Latest result			Finding^[5]	Finding and error^[5]	--
Over the past 3 months, what incidents in Hong Kong society made you feel angry? (ask those who self-reported"angry", open-ended question, multiple answers allowed) ^[6]	The Budget Talk (including the arrangement of giving $6000)		10+/-2%	10+/-2%	--
	Performance of government officials		--	5+/-1%	+5%^[7]
	Arguments about minimum wage		--	5+/-1%	+5%^[7]
	High property price/housing problems		4+/-1%	4+/-1%	--
	High inflation		2+/-1%	3+/-1%	+1%
	Pregnant women from Mainland China giving birth to children in Hong Kong		1+/-1%	2+/-1%	+1%
	Demonstrations / violent acts		2+/-1%	2+/-1%	--
	The performance of legislative councillors		1+/-1%	1+/-1%	--
	Fare increase of public transports (e.g. MTR, Kowloon bus, ferry, etc.)		--	1+/-1%	+1%
	Disparity between the rich and the poor		1+/-1%	<1+/-1%	--
	Others (the problems of education reform, medical services, etc.)		5+/-1%	5+/-1%	--
	Don't know		1+/-1%	2+/-1%	+1%
Will you use"angry" to describe your feeling towards the performance of government officials in recent arguments over minimum wage?		Yes	--	47+/-3%	--
		No	--	45+/-3%	--
Will you use"angry" to describe your feeling towards the performance of the representatives of employers in recent arguments over minimum wage?		Yes	--	36+/-3%	--
		No	--	56+/-3%	--
Will you use"angry" to describe your feeling towards the performance of the representatives of employees in recent arguments over minimum wage?		Yes	--	27+/-3%	--
		No	--	65+/-3%	--

[5] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[6] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[7] The question asked only those who said they were “angry”, but all percentages shown are based on overall sample.

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in the Hong Kong society made people angry? Results show that 10% of the overall samples mentioned"the Budget talk", while 5% each mentioned"the performance of government officials" and"arguments about minimum wage". Other answers include "high property price in Hong Kong/housing problems" (4%),"high inflation" (3%),"Pregnant women from Mainland China giving birth to children in Hong Kong" (2%),"demonstration/violent acts" (2%), and so on. In addition, in the overall sample, 47% would use"angry" to describe their feeling towards the performance of government officials in recent arguments over minimum wage. As for the performance of the representatives of employers and employees, 36% and 27% would use"angry" to describe their feelings towards them.

Indepth analyses

The following table shows the mapping between whether the respondents are angry or not, their"anger rating" and"the critical point for demonstration":

	Date of survey	Feeling"angry" towards current Hong Kong society?			Overall sample
	Date of survey	Yes	No	Don't knoow	Overall sample
The rating of "anger level"	21-30/3/11	68.0+/-2.9 (171)	39.9+/-1.5 (806)	54.5+/-11.4 (13)	45.0+/-1.5 (990)
The rating of "anger level"	26/4-2/5/11	68.4+/-2.2 (242)	40.5+/-1.5 (750)	50.9+/-10.1 (16)	47.3+/-1.4 (1,008)
The"critical point for demonstration"	21-30/3/11	78.1+/-3.2 (144)	74.2+/-1.5 (699)	64.6+/-22.7 (9)	74.8+/-1.4 (823)
The"critical point for demonstration"	26/4-2/5/11	77.9+/-2.8 (207)	72.0+/-1.7 (593)	74.3+/-6.2 (12)	73.5+/-1.4 (813)

Mapping respondents' individual ratings of"anger level" and their"critical point for demonstration", we can deduce the percentage of likely demonstrators as follows:

	Date of survey	At or above critical point	Below critical point	Not sure	Overall sample
Comparing"anger level" and "critical point for demonstration"	21-30/3/11	11+/-2% (117)	68+/-3% (696)	20+/-3% (206)	100% (1018)
	26/4-2/5/11	12+/-2% (125)	66+/-3% (683)	22+/-3% (224)	100% (1032)

Indepth analyses show that among those respondents who described themselves as"angry", the mean score of"anger rating" is 68.4 marks, or about 10 marks short of the 77.9 for the"critical point for demonstration". Another analysis shows that 12% of the respondents have rated their anger level above their own"critical point for demonstration", meaning that they are ready to protest by means of gatherings, marches, demonstrations and so on at anytime.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on May 9, 2011 in the"now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.

Q: How is the latest level of public grievances in Hong Kong?

A: Our tracking survey shows that grievances among the general public have increased compared to a month ago. People's overall satisfaction of society's current conditions decreases from 53.5 to 52.1 marks, 24% feel"angry" about the situation, representing a significant increase of 7 percentage points, and the overall rating of"anger" increases by 2.3 marks to reach 47.3 marks. All figures have basically gone back to the level shortly after the Budget Talk in late February.

Q: How is the progress of the"public grievance critical point" study?

A: Our latest survey shows that the"critical point for public demonstration" still stands at around 74 points of"anger rating". Among those who said they were angry, their"critical point" remains at around 78 points. In-depth analysis shows that 12% of the respondents have rated their"anger level" higher than their"critical point for demonstration", which is slightly higher than last time.

Q: What is the forecast for future grievances?

A: Since its first release in late February, our"POP-NOW Public Sentiment Index Survey" has been focusing on local livelihood issues, including the Budget Talk, the performance of government officials, minimum wage, Mainland women giving birth in Hong Kong, and so on. In coming month or two, we foresee that people may turn their attention to political issues like June 4th and July 1st demonstrations. How local government officials deal these political incidents will have an impact on the development of the public sentiment.