HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on May 5, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,072 Hong Kong people between 22 April and 2 May 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows the popularity of CE Donald Tsang drops again. CE's latest support rating now stands at 50.4 marks, which is similar to that registered in the second half of March. His disapproval rate, however, has climbed to record high since he became CE, while his approval rate and net popularity drop to record low. His net popularity now stands at negative 30 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's dissatisfaction rate has gone up significantly, and its net popularity dropped from negative 15 to negative 23 percentage points. All figures are at the poorest since Donald Tsang became CE. Indepth analyses show that those of age 30 to 49 give significantly lower ratings to CE, and they are also more critical of the government's overall performance. Looking back, recent events which could have affected the popularity of CE and the government include inflation problems, discussions about minimum wage, and so on. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,072 successful interviews, not 1,072 x 65.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
22/4-2/5/2011	1,072	65.9%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	21-25/2/11	1-9/3/11	14-23/3/11	4-12/4/11	22/4-2/5/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,020	1,003	1,006	1,005	1,072	--
Overall response rate	71.4%	65.4%	63.1%	68.5%	65.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	48.7^[9]	51.2^[9]	50.2	51.0	50.4+/-1.3	-0.6
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	31%	31%	33%	31%	29+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	55%^[9]	54%	52%	57%[9]	59+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-23%	-23%	-19%	-26%	-30%	-4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	26%^[9]	--	25%	--	22+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	40%^[9]	--	40%	--	45+/-4%	+5%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	-14%	--	-15%	--	-23%	-8%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.7+/-0.1^[9] (Base=1,012)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=584)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=766)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 768.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 50.4 marks, and 29% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 22% were satisfied, whereas 45% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of rating and approval rate of Chief Executive by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 22/4-2/5/11	18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Rating of CE Donald Tsang^[10]	51.6+/-2.5 (Base=208)	47.8+/-2.0 (Base=417)	52.6+/-2.2 (Base=424)	50.5+/-1.3 (Base=1,048)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 22/4-2/5/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support/ Oppose CE Donald Tsang	Support	28+/-6% (59)	26+/-4% (111)	31+/-4% (136)	29+/-3% (305)
	Oppose	59+/-7% (123)	63+/-5% (264)	56+/-5% (243)	59+/-3% (630)
	Don't know/ Hard to say	13+/-5% (26)	11+/-3% (46)	13+/-3% (57)	12+/-2% (129)
	Total	100% (208)	100% (420)	100% (436)	100% (1,064)

Herewith further analysis of satisfaction of HKSARG by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 22/4-2/5/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
The Overall performance of HKSARG^[11]	Satisfied	20+/-6% (33)	18+/-5% (52)	28+/-5% (86)	22+/-3% (171)
	Half-half	40+/-8% (65)	32+/-5% (92)	29+/-5% (90)	32+/-3% (248)
	Dissatisfied	39+/-8% (64)	51+/-6% (147)	43+/-6% (133)	45+/-4% (343)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	0+/-0% (0)	0+/-0% (1)	0+/-0% (1)
	Total	100% (162)	100% (290)	100% (311)	100% (763)
	Mean value	2.7+/-0.2 (162)	2.5+/-0.1 (290)	2.7+/-0.1 (309)	2.6+/-0.1 (762)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 14 to 23, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 22 April to 2 May, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/4/11	Hong Kong inflation becomes severe.
13/4/11	Hong Kong Government will sell 12 sites to boost land supply.
11/4/11	Contract workers for Government get paid holidays.
8/4/11	Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau resigns.
4/4/11	Many newspapers discuss the maternity problem caused by Mainland mothers in HK.
28/3/11	Commissioner for Labour Cheuk Wing-hing says pay for days off and meal times does not depends on the Minimum Wage Ordinance.
27/3/11	Proposal on extra minibond payouts by HK banks.
24/3/11	MTR fares to increase by 2.3 percent in June.
23/3/11	HKSAR government bans a variety of food imports contaminated with radiation from five Japanese prefectures.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang drops again. CE's latest support rating now stands at 50.4 marks, which is similar to that registered in the second half of March. His disapproval rate, however, has climbed to record high since he became CE, while his approval rate and net popularity drop to record low. His net popularity now stands at negative 30 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's dissatisfaction rate has gone up significantly, and its net popularity dropped from negative 15 to negative 23 percentage points. All figures are at the poorest since Donald Tsang became CE. Indepth analyses show that those of age 30 to 49 give significantly lower ratings to CE, and they are also more critical of the government's overall performance. Looking back, recent events which could have affected the popularity of CE and the government include inflation problems, discussions about minimum wage, and so on. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

May 11, 2011 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top ten Legislative Councillors