HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncilorsBack

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of all "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors have gone down from their peaks. Among them, those with significant drops include Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah, Leung Chun-ying and Ronald Arculli. In terms of absolute ratings, only Ronald Arculli gets more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying remain on the first and second positions, while Lau Kong-wah goes up one position to become the third, and Cheng Yiu-tong drops one position to become fourth. Lau Wong-fat remains fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.1 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 60%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 68.5% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 59.7% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.1 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings[6]
4-12/4/2011 （First stage naming survey）	1,005	68.5%	+/-3%
15-29/4/2011 （Second stage rating survey）	1,013	59.7%	+/-2.1

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councillors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	7-12/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	5-7/1/11	4-12/4/11	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,009	1,010	1,013	575	1,005[7]	--
Overall response rate	65.3%	64.1%	65.4%	66.4%	68.5%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	--
Leung Chun-ying	18%{1}	24%{1}	24%{1}	16%{1}	23+/-3%{1}	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	7%{2}	5%{4}	4%{5}	4%{5}	7+/-2%{2}	+3
Lau Wong-fat	5%{3}	2%{8}	19%{2}	5%{2}	6+/-2%{3}	-1
Ronald Arculli	3%{5}	10%{2}	6%{3}	4%{3}	5+/-2%{4}[8]	-1
Lau Kong-wah	2%{6}	3%{7}	6%{4}	4%{4}	5+/-2%{5}[8]	-1
Anthony Cheung	4%{4}	5%{3}	2%{6}	1%{7}	3+/-1%{6}	+1
Laura M Cha	1%{8}	1%{9}	1%{9}	2%{6}	2+/-1%{7}[9]	-1
Leong Che-hung	<1%{10}	3%{6}	2%{7}	1%{8}	2+/-1%{8}[9]	--
Anna Wu	<1%{12}	4%{5}	2%{8}	<1%{12}	2+/-1%{9}[9]	+3
Marvin Cheung	<1%{11}	0%{13}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	<1+/-1%{10}[10]	+3
Lawrence Lau	1%{9}	1%{10}	1%{10}	<1%{10}	<1+/-1%{11}[10]	-1
Charles Lee	1%{7}	<1%{11}	<1%{13}	<1%{9}	<1+/-1%{12}[10]	-3
Marjorie Yang	0%{14}	<1%{12}	<1%{14}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	-2
V Nee Yeh	<1%{13}	0%{13}	<1%{12}	0%{13}	0%{13}	--
Wrong answer	16%	25%	21%	19%	15+/-3%	--
Don't know/hard to say	66%	53%	55%	65%	64+/-4%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 591.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Ronald Arculli and Lau Kong-wah were 4.8% and 4.7%. Hence Arculli ranked the 4th, while Lau was placed at the 5th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura M Cha, Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu were 2.2%, 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. Hence Cha ranked the 7th, Leong ranked the 8th, while Wu was placed at the 9th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Marvin Cheung, Lawrence Lau and Charles Lee were 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.1%. Hence Cheung ranked the 10th, Lau ranked the 11th, while Lee was placed at the 12th rank.

The naming survey conducted in early April showed that Leung Chun-ying was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 23%, followed by Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Wong-fat, Ronald Arculli and Lau Kong-wah with recognition rate of 7%, 6%, 5% and 5%, and ranked the 2nd to 5th..However, 15% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 64% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in the mid and late April, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	15-25/4/10	19-21/7/10	26-30/10/10	11-19/1/11	15-29/4/11		Latest change
Sample base	1,020	1,007	1,009	520-549	558-626		--
Overall response rate	69.8%	66.2%	63.3%	66.1%	59.7%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [11]	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	55.1 {1}[13]	48.8 {1}[13]	49.5 {1}	53.6 {1}	51.3 {1} +/-1.7	80%	-2.3[13]
Leung Chun-ying	48.2 {2}	45.6 {3}[13]	47.5 {2}[13]	51.2 {2}	47.6 {2} +/-1.8	84%	-3.6[13]
Lau Kong-wah	44.8 {4}	--	43.5 {4}	48.6 {4}	44.2 {3} +/-2.1	75%	-4.4[13]
Cheng Yiu-tong	45.2 {3}	41.8 {5}[13]	43.9 {3}[13]	49.6 {3}	43.9 {4} +/-2.0	75%	-5.7[13]
Lau Wong-fat	42.4 {5}	--	33.1 {5}	37.6 {5}	37.3 {5} +/-1.8	88%	-0.3
Anthony Cheung	50.6[12][13]	46.7[12][13]	48.4[12][13]	--	48.5[12]+/-1.8	61%	+0.1
Laura M Cha	--	--	--	48.6[12]	--	--	--
Leong Che-hung	--	47.2 {2}	--		--	--	--
Anna Wu	--	42.1 {4}	--		--	--	--

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest rating survey conducted in second half of April showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 51.3 marks. The 2nd rank went to Leung Chun-ying with 47.6 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Lau Kong-wah, Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Wong-fat with 44.2, 43.9 and 37.3 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 44.9 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 48.5 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	19-21/7/10	26-30/10/10	11-19/1/11	15-29/4/11	No.of times on top 5	Average rating[14]	Overall ranking[15]
Ronald Arculli	48.8	49.5	53.6	51.3	4	50.8	1
Leung Chun-ying	45.6	47.5	51.2	47.6	4	47.9	2
Cheng Yiu-tong	41.8	43.9	49.6	43.9	4	44.8	3
Lau Kong-wah	-	43.5	48.6	44.2	3	45.4	4
Lau Wong-fat	-	33.1	37.6	37.3	3	36.0	5
Leong Che-hung	47.2	-	-	-	1	47.2	6
Anna Wu	42.1	-	-	-	1	42.1	7

[14] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[15] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying and Cheng Yiu-tong ranked 1st to 3rd place respectively and achieved an average rating of 50.8, 47.9 and 44.8 marks. Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list for three times with corresponding ratings of 45.4 and 36.0 marks and ranked 4th and 5th place. Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu have been on the list once with corresponding ratings of 47.2 and 42.1 marks and ranked 6th and 7th place.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 11 to 19, 2011 while this survey was conducted from April 15 to 29, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/4/11	HK Railway denies the violations of freedom of the press.
13/4/11	Hong Kong Government will sell 12 sites to boost land supply.
8/4/11	Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau resigns.
4/4/11	Many newspapers discuss the maternity problem caused by Mainland mothers in HK.
28/3/11	Commissioner for Labour Cheuk Wing-hing says pay for days off and meal times does not depends on the Minimum Wage Ordinance.
27/3/11	Proposal on extra minibond payouts by HK banks.
24/3/11	MTR fares to increase by 2.3 percent in June
9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
4/2/11	Lau Wong-fat asks for the divination about Hong Kong's future in the Year of Rabbit in Che Kung Temple.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of all 'top 5' non-official Executive Councillors have gone down from their peaks. Among them, those with significant drops include Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah, Leung Chun-ying and Ronald Arculli. In terms of absolute ratings, only Ronald Arculli gets more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying remain on the first and second positions, while Lau Kong-wah goes up one position to become the third, and Cheng Yiu-tong drops one position to become fourth. Lau Wong-fat remains fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of 'top five' only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the 'Opinion Daily' of our POP Site."

• May 5, 2011 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and the HKSAR Government