HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on April 19, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between April 4 to 12 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that before the passing of this year's Budget at the Legislative Council, both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have roughly remained at the level registered in early March. However, his disapproval rate as CE has climbed to record high with 57%, while his net popularity has dropped to negative 26 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating and approval rate have both dropped to record low since he became FS, as his disapproval rate reaches record high. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at negative 14 percentage points. Compared to the positive 34 percentage points registered before the Budget, it has plunged 48 percentage points in two months. As for the other Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of CS Henry Tang has dropped significantly by 9 percentage points, while the popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. The net approval rates of the two Secretaries stand at positive 7 and positive 61 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 5 among 12 Directors have gone up, 5 have gone down and 2 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 9 and 8 percentage points for Ambrose Lee and York Chow respectively, and up by 5 percentage points for both Eva Cheng and Rita Lau. Among the Directors of Bureaux, only Secretary for Education Michael Suen registers negative popularity with negative 22 percentage points. His approval rate has also dropped to record low since he became Secretary for Education, probably due to the recent arguments over textbook debundling. It should be noted that our survey on Rita Lau stopped immediately after she resigned from the post of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development on April 8. Our figures therefore only reflect her popularity right before her resignation. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung and Ambrose Lee now fall under the category of "successful". Carrie Lam, York Chow, Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam, John Tsang and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Rita Lau and Denise Yue can be labeled as "inconspicuous". Donald Tsang can be labeled as "depressing" while no official falls under the category of "disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 68.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
4-12/4/2011	1,005	68.5%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	7-11/2/11	21-25/2/11	1-9/3/11	14-23/3/11	4-12/4/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,027	1,020	1,003	1,006	1.005	--
Overall response rate	67.1%	71.4%	65.4%	63.1%	68.5%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.9^[9]	48.7^[9]	51.2^[9]	50.2	51.0+/-1.3	+0.8
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	34%^[9]	31%	31%	33%	31+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	50%^[9]	55%^[9]	54%	52%	57+/-3%	+5%^[9]
Net approval rate	-16%	-23%	-23%	-19%	-26%	-7%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	5-12/1/11	7-11/2/11	23/2/11	1-9/3/11	4-12/4/11	Latest change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	536-549	566-574	1,031	539-567	543-561	--
Overall response rate	64.9%	67.1%	72.8%	65.4%	68.5%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Henry Tang	55.4	48.7^[12]	--	51.2^[12]	50.3+/-1.7	-0.9
Vote of confidence in CS Henry Tang	46%	34%^[12]	--	39%^[12]	30+/-4%	-9%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in CS Henry Tang	18%	27%^[12]	--	23%	23+/-4%	--
Net approval rate	25%	7%	--	16%	7%	-9%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	55.2	55.4	52.4	46.6^[12]	46.0+/-1.8	-0.6
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	43%^[12]	51%^[12]	36%	31%^[12]	24+/-4%	-7%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	22%^[12]	17%^[12]	22%	37%^[12]	38+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	21%	34%	14%	-6%	-14%	-8%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	60.9	59.6	--	61.1	59.6+/-1.4	-1.5^[12]
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	59%	60%	--	61%	65+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	6%	7%	--	3%^[12]	4+/-2%	+1%
Net approval rate	53%	53%	--	58%	61%	+3%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	7-11/2/11		1-9/3/11		4-12/4/11		Latest change
Total sample size^[13]	1,027		1,003		1.005		--
Overall response rate	67.1%		65.4%		68.5%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	%& error^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	599	63%	548	67%	524	58+/-4%	-9%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	599	9%	548	9%	524	10+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	54%	--	58%	--	48%	-10%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	529	51%	553	45%^[15]	549	48+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	529	15%	553	15%	549	15+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	36%	--	30%	--	33%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	553	47%	568	51%	527	43+/-4%	-8%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	553	22%	568	23%	527	24+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	25%	--	28%	--	19%	-9%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	563	51%	537	42%^[15]	522	42+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	563	15%	537	16%	522	22+/-4%	+6%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	36%	--	26%	--	20%	-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	559	39%	528	36%	518	41+/-4%	+5%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	559	22%	528	23%	518	20+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	--	17%	--	13%	--	21%	+8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	564	36%	558	35%	543	36+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	564	12%	558	11%	543	13+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	24%	--	24%	--	23%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	548	36%	552	36%	519	34+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	548	23%	552	21%	519	22+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	13%	--	15%	--	12%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau^[16][17]	576	30%	558	25%^[15]	474	30+/-4%	+5%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	576	13%	558	14%	474	14+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	17%	--	11%	--	16%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing^[16]	619	28%	567	29%	575	30+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	619	39%	567	32%^[15]	575	29+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	--	-11%	--	-3%	--	1%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam^[16]	544	27%^[15]	561	31%	529	30+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	544	34%	561	26%^[15]	529	27+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	-7%	--	5%	--	3%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	600	28%	568	28%	521	28+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	600	16%^[15]	568	14%	521	16+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	12%	--	14%	--	12%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	620	30%	548	24%^[15]	557	22+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	620	38%	548	49%^[15]	557	44+/-4%	-5%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	-8%	--	-25%	--	-22%	+3%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In two decimal places, the approval rate of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau is 29.99%, while that of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing is 29.95%, and that of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam is 29.55%.
[17] Rita Lau resigned from the post of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development on April 8. Our survey on her popularity also stopped on that day.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.0 marks, and 31% supported him as the Chief Executive, thus his net approval rate is negative 26%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 50.3, 46.0 and 59.6 marks, and 30%, 24% and 65% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 7%, negative 14% and positive 61% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 58%. His net approval rate is positive 48%. The 2nd to 5th places belonged to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, with approval rate 48%, 43%, 42% and 41% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 33%, 19%, 20% and 21% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 6th to 12th, as they gained 36%, 34%, 30%, 30%, 30%, 28% and 22% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 23%, positive 12%, positive 16%, positive 1%, positive 3%, positive 12% and negative 22%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 1 to 9, 2011 while this survey was conducted from April 4 to 12, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

11/4/11	Contract workers for Government get paid holidays.
8/4/11	Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau resigns.
4/4/11	Many newspapers discuss the maternity problem caused by Mainland mothers in HK.
28/3/11	Commissioner for Labour Cheuk Wing-hing says pay for days off and meal times does not depends on the Minimum Wage Ordinance.
24/3/11	MTR fares to increase by 2.3 percent in June
23/3/11	HKSAR government bans a variety of food imports contaminated with radiation from five Japanese prefectures.
17/3/11	Affected by the nuclear crisis in Japan, many HK citizens irrationally buy salt.
12/3/11	Earthquake causes nuclear fears in Japan.
9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
1/3/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen injured by a protestor.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted before the passing of this year's Budget at the Legislative Council shows that both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have roughly remained at the level registered in early March. However, his disapproval rate as CE has climbed to record high with 57%, while his net popularity has dropped to negative 26 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating and approval rate have both dropped to record low since he became FS, as his disapproval rate reaches record high. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at negative 14 percentage points. Compared to the positive 34 percentage points registered before the Budget, it has plunged 48 percentage points in two months.

As for the other Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of CS Henry Tang has dropped significantly by 9 percentage points, while the popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. The net approval rates of the two Secretaries stand at positive 7 and positive 61 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 5 among 12 Directors have gone up, 5 have gone down and 2 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 9 and 8 percentage points for Ambrose Lee and York Chow respectively, and up by 5 percentage points for both Eva Cheng and Rita Lau. Among the Directors of Bureaux, only Secretary for Education Michael Suen registers negative popularity with negative 22 percentage points. His approval rate has also dropped to record low since he became Secretary for Education, probably due to the recent arguments over textbook debundling. It should be noted that our survey on Rita Lau stopped immediately after she resigned from the post of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development on April 8. Our figures therefore only reflect her popularity right before her resignation.

According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung and Ambrose Lee now fall under the category of "successful". Carrie Lam, York Chow, Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam, John Tsang and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Rita Lau and Denise Yue can be labeled as "inconspicuous". Donald Tsang can be labeled as "depressing" while no official falls under the category of "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

SJ Wong Yan-lung (65%); Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (58%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (48%); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (43%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (42%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (41%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (34%); CS Henry Tang Ying-yen (30%^[18]); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (30%^[18]); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung (30%^[18]); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (24%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (22%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (36%, 48%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan (30%, 44%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (28%, 44%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (57%)

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates

None

[18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen is 30.3%, while that of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing is 30.0% and that of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam is 29.6%.

Future Release (Tentative)

April 26, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Media performance