HKU POP releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on April 12, 2011

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 14 and 23 March 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to three months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has surged by 10 percentage points, while their satisfaction has gone down signicantly by 6 percentage points to its new low since July 2003. Legco members' net popularity now stands at negative 38 percentage points, probably due to Legco's rejecting of the bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is negative 15 percentage points, as published before.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with both the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have not changed much, while people's dissatisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. The net popularity of the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison now stand at positive 63 and positive 50 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows that the older the respondent is, and also the higher social strata one belongs, the more dissatisfied one becomes with Legco members in general. It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 63%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 63.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all satisfaction and dissatisfaction rates is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF) and the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in year end 2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages ^[6]
14-23/3/2011	1,006	63.1%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-25/3/10	18-22/6/10	18-24/9/10	17-22/12/10	14-23/3/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,012	1,009	1,010	1,017	578-616	--
Overall response rate	69.3%	66.7%	66.2%	66.4%	63.1%	--
Finding /Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error ^[7]	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members^[8]	18%	19%	21%	19%	13+/-3%	-6%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members^[8]	49%	51%	37%^[9]	41%^[9]	51+/-4%	+10%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	-31%	-32%	-16%	-22%	-38%	-16%
Mean value^[8]	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=955)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=942)	2.7+/-0.1[9] (Base=947)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=934)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=597)	-0.3^[9]
Satisfaction rate of HKPF^[8]	71%^[9]	69%	74%^[9]	72%	71+/-4%	-1%
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF^[8]	10%	13%^[9]	6%^[9]	8%	8+/-2%	--
Net satisfaction rate	+61%	+56%	+68%	+64%	+63%	-1%
Mean value^[8]	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=990)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=998)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=576)	--
Satisfaction rate of PLA^[8]	56%^[9]	55%	53%	52%	52+/-4%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA^[8]	3%	3%	3%	2%	2+/-1%	--
Net satisfaction rate	+53%	+52%	+50%	+50%	+50%	--
Mean value^[8]	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=737)	4.0+/-0.1 (Base=677)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=726)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=675)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=413)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Results of survey conducted in the second half of March revealed that 13% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 51% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 71% were satisfied while 8% were dissatisfied. Besides, 52% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 2% were dissatisfied. The mean score of the Legco members is 2.4, meaning in between "half-half" and "quite dissatisfied", while the respective mean scores of the two disciplinary forces are 3.7 and 3.9, meaning close to "satisfied" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the overall performance of Legco members by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-23/3/11		18-29 years old	30-49 years old	50 years old or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction of the overall performance of Legco members^[11]	Satisfaction	18+/-7% (22)	10+/-4% (24)	15+/-5% (36)	13+/-3% (81)
	Half-half	45+/-9% (55)	33+/-6% (81)	27+/-6% (67)	33+/-4% (202)
	Dissatisfaction	35+/-9% (43)	54+/-6% (131)	56+/-6% (138)	51+/-4% (311)
	Don't know/ hard to say	2+/-3% (3)	3+/-2% (8)	3+/-2% (7)	3+/-1% (18)
	Total	100% (122)	100% (244)	100% (247)	100% (613)
	Mean value	2.7+/-0.2 (119)	2.3+/-0.1 (235)	2.4+/-0.1 (240)	2.4+/-0.1 (595)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

The following table shows the mapping between respondents' choice and their final grouping:

Self-reported social stratum	Social stratum group
Upper stratum	Relatively upper stratum (about one-third)
Upper-middle stratum
Middle-middle stratum
Lower-middle stratum	Relatively middle stratum (about one-third)
Lower stratum or grassroots	Relatively lower stratum (about one-third)
Don't know/hard to say/refuse to answer	Unclassified

Herewith further analysis of the overall performance of Legco members by respondents' social strata:

Date of survey: 14-23/3/11		Upper	Middle	Lower	Overall sample
Satisfaction of the overall performance of Legco members	Satisfaction	14+/-5% (29)	13+/-5% (25)	14+/-5% (25)	13+/-3% (79)
	Half-half	28+/-6% (60)	37+/-7% (74)	35+/-7% (62)	33+/-4% (196)
	Dissatisfaction	55+/-7% (117)	49+/-7% (97)	48+/-7% (86)	51+/-4% (300)
	Don't know/hard to say	3+/-2% (6)	2+/-2% (3)	3+/-3% (6)	3+/-1% (16)
	Total	100% (213)	100% (199)	100% (179)	100% (591)
	Mean value	2.4+/-0.1 (206)	2.5+/-0.1 (196)	2.5+/-0.1 (173)	2.4+/-0.1 (575)

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 17 to 22, 2010 while this survey was conducted from March 14 to 23, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
6/3/11	Police clash with protestors in Anti-Budget demonstration.
1/3/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen injured by a protestor.
11/2/11	Government adjusts Work Incentive Transport Subsidy Scheme.
5/2/11	A Hong Kong tour guide and three mainland tourists are detained for a fight over shopping.
14/1/11	The grown-up mainland children of Hong Kong people are allowed the right of abode in Hong Kong.
29/12/10	Hong Kong people concerns Zhao Lianhai's case.
23/12/10	Bokhary jails for six weeks

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that compared to three months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has surged by 10 percentage points, while their satisfaction has gone down signicantly by 6 percentage points to its new low since July 2003. Legco members' net popularity now stands at negative 38 percentage points, probably due to Legco's rejecting of the bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is negative 15 percentage points, as published before.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with both the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have not changed much, while people's dissatisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. The net popularity of the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison now stand at positive 63 and positive 50 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows that the older the respondent is, and also the higher social strata one belongs, the more dissatisfied one becomes with Legco members in general. It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

April 19, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and Principal Officials