HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on April 6, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 14 and 23 March 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government has fluctuated recently within a narrow range. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 19 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 15 percentage points, more or less like those a month ago. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have decreased. Among them, that of its relation with the Central Government, developing democracy and improving people's livelihood have dropped to record lows since January 2005. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 28 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 11 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 3 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 16 percentage points and improving people's livelihood at negative 35 percentage points coupled with more than 50% dissatisfaction rate. The government obviously should waste no time to step up its work to improve people's livelihood. Indepth analyses show that those of age 50 or above give significantly higher ratings to CE. For those aged 18 to 29, not only are they more critical of the government's performance in improving people's livelihood, they are also least satisfied with the government's relation with the Central Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 63.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
14-23/3/2011	1,006	63.1%	+/-4%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-26/1/11	7-11/2/11	21-25/2/11	1-9/3/11	14-23/3/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,018	1,027	1,020	1,003	1,006	--
Overall response rate	65.8%	67.1%	71.4%	65.4%	63.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	53.5	51.9^[9]	48.7^[9]	51.2^[9]	50.2+/-1.3	-1.0
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	38%	34%^[9]	31%	31%	33+/-3%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	46%	50%^[9]	55%^[9]	54%	52+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	-8%	-16%	-23%	-23%	-19%	+4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	30%	--	26%^[9]	--	25+/-4%	-1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	32%	--	40%^[9]	--	40+/-4%	--
Net satisfaction rate	-2%	--	-14%	--	-15%	-1%
Mean value^[8]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,004)	--	2.7+/-0.1^[9] (Base=1,012)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=584)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 585.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 50.2 marks, and 33% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 40% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.7, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	23-25/3/10	18-22/6/10	18-24/9/10	17-22/12/10	14-23/3/11	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	1,012	1,009	1,010	1,017	549-617	--
Overall response rate	69.3%	66.7%	66.2%	66.4%	63.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	50%^[12]	49%	57%^[12]	52%^[12]	47+/-4%	-5%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	22%^[12]	28%^[12]	13%^[12]	19%^[12]	19+/-3%	--
Net satisfaction rate	+28%	+21%	+44%	+33%	+28%	-5%
Mean value^[11]	3.3+/-0.1^[12] (Base=954)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=930)	3.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=957)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=935)	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=563)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	42%	38%^[12]	49%^[12]	43%^[12]	40+/-4%	-3%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	34%^[12]	41%^[12]	24%^[12]	27%	29+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	+8%	-3%	+25%	+16%	+11%	-5%
Mean value^[11]	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base=987)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=971)	3.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=992)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=982)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=586)	--
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	35%	40%^[12]	37%	36%	32+/-4%	-4%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	34%	37%	29%^[12]	33%^[12]	35+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	+1%	+3%	+8%	+3%	-3%	-6%
Mean value^[11]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=1,000)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=996)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=995)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=528)	--
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	29%	32%	34%	30%^[12]	27+/-4%	-3%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	43%	45%	33%^[12]	40%^[12]	43+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	-14%	-13%	+1%	-10%	-16%	-6%
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=963)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=951)	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=979)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=954)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=575)	-0.1
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	23%	26%	23%	21%	18+/-3%	-3%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	49%	53%^[12]	44%^[12]	54%^[12]	53+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	-26%	-27%	-21%	-33%	-35%	-2%
Mean value^[11]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,004)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=992)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=996)	2.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=1,002)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=585)	--

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 47%. The government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 40%. Finally, a respective of 32%, 27% and 18% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.3, 3.1, 2.9, 2.7 and 2.5 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of rating of Chief Executive by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-23/3/11	18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Rating of CE Donald Tsang^[14]	49.3+/-2.4 (Base=190)	47.6+/-2.2 (Base=389)	53.3+/-2.1 (Base=404)	50.2+/-1.3 (Base=984)

[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Herewith further analysis of satisfaction of HKSARG in improving people's livelihood and relation with Central Government by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-23/3/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Percentage of satisfaction in improving people's livelihood^[15]	Satisfied	8+/-5% (10)	16+/-5% (38)	25+/-6% (60)	18+/-3% (107)
	Half-half	33+/-9% (40)	28+/-6% (69)	24+/-6% (58)	28+/-4% (167)
	Dissatisfied	59+/-9% (72)	55+/-6% (133)	48+/-6% (115)	53+/-4%* (320)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	1+/-1% (2)	2+/-2% (6)	1+/-1% (7)
	Total	100% (122)	100% (242)	100% (238)	100% (602)
	Mean value	2.3+/-0.2 (122)	2.4+/-0.1 (240)	2.6+/-0.1 (233)	2.5+/-0.1 (595)

[15] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 14-23/3/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Percentage of satisfaction in relation with Central Government^[16]	Satisfied	41+/-9% (48)	47+/-6% (112)	50+/-6% (125)	47+/-4% (285)
	Half-half	43+/-9% (50)	31+/-6% (73)	23+/-5% (56)	30+/-4% (180)
	Dissatisfied	15+/-7% (17)	19+/-5% (45)	20+/-5% (49)	18+/-3% (110)
	Don't know/ hard to say	1+/-1% (2)	4+/-3% (9)	7+/-3% (18)	5+/-2% (29)
	Total	100% (117)	100% (239)	100% (248)	100% (604)
	Mean value	3.3+/-0.2 (116)	3.4+/-0.1 (230)	3.3+/-0.1 (230)	3.3+/-0.1 (575)

[16] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 17 to 22, 2010 while this survey was conducted from March 14 to 23, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/3/11	HKSAR government bans a variety of food imports contaminated with radiation from five Japanese prefectures.
17/3/11	Affected by the nuclear crisis in Japan, many HK citizens irrationally buy salt.
14/3/11	Premier Wen Jiabao advises HK to plan developments and resolve social conflicts.
9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
6/3/11	Police clash with protestors in Anti-Budget demonstration.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
1/3/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen injured by a protestor.
27/2/11	HK people are dissatisfied with the annual budget.
23/2/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang unveils the annual budget of 2011-2012.
11/2/11	Government adjusts Work Incentive Transport Subsidy Scheme.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey conducted in middle to late March shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government has fluctuated recently within a narrow range. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 19 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 15 percentage points, more or less like those a month ago. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have decreased. Among them, that of its relation with the Central Government, developing democracy and improving people's livelihood have dropped to record lows since January 2005. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 28 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 11 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 3 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 16 percentage points and improving people's livelihood at negative 35 percentage points coupled with more than 50% dissatisfaction rate. The government obviously should waste no time to step up its work to improve people's livelihood. Indepth analyses show that those of age 50 or above give significantly higher ratings to CE. For those aged 18 to 29, not only are they more critical of the government's performance in improving people's livelihood, they are also least satisfied with the government's relation with the Central Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

April 12, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legislative Councillors, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison

* The figure in our original release was a typographical mistake.
** Due to some operational problems, there was a slight difference in the sample base used in some of our frequency and cross-tabulation analyses, but this has no significant effect.