"POP-NOW Public Sentiment Index Survey" released for the second timeBack

Press Release on April 4, 2011

Background

Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In January 2011, POP came into agreement with the"now News Channel" for a project called"Public Sentiment Index". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of public sentiment, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular opinion surveys and other public opinion studies. The survey results will first be released in the"now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption."now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that"now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. This is the second release of the survey series, the last one was released on March 3. Please cite the source of the figures when using them.

Latest Figures

The latest survey findings released by POP through now News Channel today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[1]
21-30/3/2011	1,018	62.8%	+/-3%

[1] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest findings are as follows:

I. Overall ratings of society's conditions and level of anger

Date of survey			25-31/1/11	24-28/2/11	21-30/3/11	Latest change^[5]
Sample base			1,035	1,013	1,018	--
Overall response rate			65.9%	69.4%	62.8%	--
Latest result			Finding and error ^[6]	Finding and error ^[6]	Finding and error^[2]	--
Satisfaction rating of overall society's conditions (0-100)			55.2+/-1.0	52.9^[5]+/-1.2	53.5+/-1.1	+0.6
Will you use the word"angry" to describe your feeling towards current Hong Kong society?		Yes	19+/-2%	26^[5]+/-3%	17+/-2%	-9%^[5]
		No	79+/-3%	72^[5]+/-3%	81+/-2%	+9%^[5]
Rating of"anger" level (0-100)			47.7+/-1.4	50.1^[5]+/-1.7	45.0+/-1.5	-5.1^[5]
Anger tolerance before taking to the street (0-100) ^[4]			--	--	74.8+/-1.4	--
How far is the distance from the critical point of public grievances in the current Hong Kong society?^[3] ^[4]	Far		--	--	21+/-3%	--
	Half-half		--	--	38+/-3%	--
	Close		--	--	40+/-3%	--
	Mean value^[3]		--	--	3.2+/-0.1	--

[2] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[4] The frequency of survey for this series of question are different, comparison should be made within the same period of survey.
[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The survey results in late March showed that overall satisfaction rating of society's current conditions now stands at 53.5 marks. Besides, 17% of the respondents would describe themselves as"angry", while 81% would not. The mean score of"anger" now stands as 45.0 marks. Moreover, the threshold for people taking to the street now stands at 74.8 points of anger. With regards the distance from the critical point of public grievances in the current Hong Kong society, 21% expressed"far away" and 40% believed it is"close", 38% said"half-half". The mean value is 3.2, meaning"half-half".

II. Specific incidents that made people angry

Date of survey				24-28/2/11	21-30/3/11		Latest change
Sample base				1,013	1,018		--
Overall response rate				69.4%	62.8%		--
Latest result				Finding and error ^[6]	Finding and error ^[6]		--
Over the past 3 months, what incidents in Hong Kong society made you feel angry? (ask those who self -reported "angry", open-ended question, multiple answers allowed) ^[8]	The Budget Talk: No specific content	Overall dissatisfaction towards the Budget		15+/-2% (No separate items in the last survey)	5+/-1%	10+/-2%	-5%^[7]
	The Budget Talk: on the revised Budget, including giving $6,000 for each person, tax refund, etc.				5+/-1%
	The Budget Talk: on the original Budget, including giving $6000 to MPF, no tax refund				3+/-1%
	High property price			6+/-1%	4+/-1%		-2%^[7]
	High inflation			7+/-2%	2+/-1%		-5%^[7]
	The policies adopted by the Government			--	2+/-1%		--
	Demonstrations / violent act			--	2+/-1%		--
	Disparity between the rich and the poor			1+/-1%	1+/-1%		--
	The performance of legislative councillors			--	1+/-1%		--
	Work Incentive Transport Subsidy Scheme			2+/-1%	1+/-1%		-1%
	The problems of new immigrants from Mainland China			--	1+/-1%		--
	Others (performance of government officials, activists for democracy being rejected to enter Hong Kong, Manila hostage incident, etc.)			10+/-2%	3+/-1%		-7%^[7]
	Don't know			2+/-1%	1+/-1%		-1%
Will you use the word"angry" to describe your feelings towards the performance of demonstrators in the anti-Budget demostration?			Yes	--	43+/-3%		--
			No	--	54+/-3%		--
Will you use the word"angry" to describe your feelings towards the performance of police in the anti-Budget demostration?			Yes	--	12+/-2%		--
			No	--	85+/-2%		--

[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[8] The question asked those who self-reported"angry" only, but all percentages shown are based on overall sample.

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in the Hong Kong society made the people feel angry? Results show that 10% of the overall samples mentioned"the Budget talk", within that, 5% had no specifics, while 5% were not satisfied with the revised Budget and 3% focused on the original suggestions of the Budget. Other answers include"high property price in Hong Kong" (4%),"high inflation" (2%),"the policies of the Government" (2%),"demonstration/violent acts" (2%), and so on. In addition, in the overall sample, 43% would use"angry" to describe their feeling towards the performance of demonstrators in the anti-Budget demonstration while 54% would not. As for the performance of the police, 12% would use"angry" to describe their feelings and 85% would not.

Indepth analyses

The following table shows the mapping between whether the respondents are angry or not, with their"anger rating" and"the critical point for demonstration":

Date of survey: 21-30/3/11	Feeling"angry" towards current Hong Kong society?			Overall sample
Date of survey: 21-30/3/11	Yes	No	Don't knoow	Overall sample
The rating of"anger level"	68.0+/-2.9 (171)	39.9+/-1.5 (806)	54.5+/-11.4 (13)	45.0+/-1.5 (990)
The"critical point for demonstration"	78.1+/-3.2 (144)	74.2+/-1.5 (699)	64.6+/-22.7 (9)	74.8+/-1.4 (823)

Mapping respondents' individual ratings of"anger level" and their"critical point for demonstration", we can deduce the percentage of likely demonstrators as follows:

Date of survey: 21-30/3/11	At or above critical point	Below critical point	Not sure	Overall sample
Comparing"anger level" and "critical point for demonstration"	11+/-2% (117)	68+/-3% (696)	20+/-3% (206)	100% (1018)

Indepth analyses show that among those respondents who described themselves as"angry", the mean score of"anger rating" is 68.0 marks, or about 10 marks short of the 78.1 for the"critical point for demonstration". Another analysis shows that 11% of the respondents have rated their anger level above their own"critical point for demonstration", meaning that they are ready to protest by means of gatherings, marches, demonstrations and so on at anytime.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on April 4, 2011 in the"now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.

Q: How is the latest level of public grievances in Hong Kong?

A: Our tracking survey shows that grievances among the general public have slightly relieved compared to the days shortly after the Budget was released in late February. People's overall satisfaction of society's current conditions increases from 52.9 to 53.5 marks, 17% feel"angry" about the situation, representing a significant drop of 9 percentage points, and the overall rating of"anger" plummeted 5.1 marks to 45.0 marks. Significant revisions to the Budget is probably the reason behind.

Q: How has the level of"critical point of public grievance" come out in the survey?

A: One purpose of our"Public Sentiment Index" survey is to find out, using objective and scientific, methods, the critical point of public grievances when people would take to the street. One of the survey questions is:"Using a scale of 0 to 100, at what level of "'anger" would you begin to demonstrate on street?" Our latest finding shows that this"critical point for public demonstration" stands at 74.8 marks, which is about 30 marks higher than the current anger rating of 45.0. In other words, there is still a large gap between the"critical point" and people's anger. In-depth analysis show that only 11% of the respondents have rated their"anger level" higher than their own"critical point for demonstration", 68% have not, while 20% cannot be classified.

Q: Are there other methods to measure the"critical point of public grievance"?

A: There is another question in the survey:"How do you perceive is the distance between people's anger and the critical point of public grievance?" The objective of this question is to measure the direct feeling of people themselves on the distance mentioned. Results show that 10% and 12% considered the critical point to be"very far" and"quite far" respectively, 38% said"half-half", while 26% and 14% said"quite close" and"very close". The mean value is 3.2, which is between"half-half" and"quite far". In other words, over 10% of Hong Kong people consider Hong Kong society to be close to the critical point of public grievance, which is quite similar to the percentage of people whose anger ratings exceed their own critical points.