HKU POP releases the latest ratings of cross-strait political figuresBack

Press Release on March 31, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan in March, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to 6 months ago, there is not much change in the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures. On the awareness level, Xi Jinping who was ranked the 4th last time has now dropped out of the list because of his relatively low recognition rate, while Lu Hsiu-lien has re-entered the list to occupy the 9th place. This makes our top 10 list a 50:50 split again across the two sides of the strait. In terms of support rating, among the 9 best known figures who continue to stay on the list, 3 register significant gains in their ratings while 3 register significant drops, with Li Peng's rating reaching its record low since the survey began in 1997. As for their relative rankings, Wen Jiabao continues to top the list, while Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao continue to rank 2nd and 3rd. All positions have not changed much. Further analysis shows that those of age 50 or above give relatively higher ratings to Wen Jiabao, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao, and lower ratings to Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, probably reflecting the patriotic complex of the older generation. The sampling errors of rating figures registered fall between +/-1.4 and +/-2.3. The response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size the first stage naming survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 65.4%. The sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,024 successful interviews, not 1,024 x 66.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses"computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest survey on popularity of cross-strait political figures. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
1-9/3/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,003	65.4%	+/-3%
14-23/3/2011 (Second stage rating survey)	1,024	66.7%	+/-1.6

[9] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early March. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Wen Jiabao, Ma Ying-jeou, Hu Jintao, Chen Shui-bian and Xi Jinping were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-March, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	24-30/9/2009	9-15/3/2010	18-24/9/2010	14-23/3/2011		Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,004	1,010	543-661		--
Overall response rate	66.2%	66.4%	66.2%	66.7%		--
Latest finding / Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	Recognition rate	--
Wen Jiabao	77.5 {1}^[9]	78.6{1}^[9]	76.9{1}^[9]	72.7+/-1.5{1}	97.6%	-4.2^[9]
Zhu Rongji	75.4{3}	76.0{2}	71.8{2}^[9]	71.6+/-1.7{2}	86.6%	-0.2
Hu Jintao	75.7{2}^[9]	75.9{3}	70.9{3}^[9]	69.2+/-1.4{3}	96.5%	-1.7^[9]
Ma Ying-jeou	62.3{4}^[9]	61.5{4}	58.9{5}^[9]	60.4+/-1.4{4}	87.8%	+1.5^[9]
Jiang Zemin	61.0{5}	60.6{5}	56.0{6}^[9]	58.3+/-1.9{5}	87.4%	+2.3^[9]
Lien Chan	52.9{6}^[9]	51.0{6}^[9]	54.3{7}^[9]	54.4+/-1.8{6}	75.1%	+0.1
Lee Teng-hui	43.4{8} ^[9]	41.6{7}^[9]	35.7{9}^[9]	41.2+/-2.3{7}	79.3%	+5.5^[9]
Li Peng	44.1{7}	41.4{8}^[9]	42.7{8}	39.9+/-2.2{8}	80.7%	-2.8^[9]
Lu Hsiu-lien	35.4{9}^[8]^[9]	34.6{9}^[8]	--	35.9+/-2.1{9}	75.2%	--
Chen Shui-bian	13.8{10}	16.7{10}^[9]	18.2{10}^[9]	17.2+/-1.7{10}	94.1%	-1.0
Xi Jinping	62.7^[8]	65.5^[8]^[9]	61.8{4}^[9]	60.9+/-1.7^[8]	73.6%	-0.9
Li Keqiang	--	52.5^[8]	55.4^[8]^[9]	54.1+/-2.2^[8]	43.2%	-1.3
Huang Huahua	--	--	56.5^[8]	--	--	--
Wu Bangguo	55.3^[8]	--	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. {} Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in mid-March revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Wen Jiabao topped the list, attaining 72.7 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao with respective scores of 71.6 and 69.2 marks. Ma Ying-jeou ranked the 4th, attaining 60.4 marks. Jiang Zemin, Lien Chan and Lee Teng-hui occupied the 5th to 7th ranks with 58.3, 54.4 and 41.2 marks correspondingly. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Li Peng, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 39.9, 35.9 and 17.2 marks. For this latest survey, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang obtained support ratings of 60.9 and 54.1 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 66.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 52.1 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 18 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	24-30/9/2009	9-15/3/2010	18-24/9/2010	14-23/3/2011	No. of times on top 10	Average rating^[10]	Overall ranking^[11]
Wen Jiabao	77.5	78.6	76.9	72.7	4	76.4	1
Zhu Rongji	75.4	76.0	71.8	71.6	4	73.7	2
Hu Jintao	75.7	75.9	70.9	69.2	4	72.9	3
Ma Ying-jeou	62.3	61.5	58.9	60.4	4	60.8	4
Jiang Zemin	61.0	60.6	56.0	58.3	4	59.0	5
Lien Chan	52.9	51.0	54.3	54.4	4	53.2	6
Li Peng	44.1	41.4	42.7	39.9	4	42.0	7
Lee Teng-hui	43.4	41.6	35.7	41.2	4	40.5	8
Chen Shui-bian	13.8	16.7	18.2	17.2	4	16.4	9
Lu Hsiu-lien	35.4	34.6	--	35.9	3	35.3	10
Xi Jinping	--	--	61.8	--	1	61.8	11

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 18 months showed that nine political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Wen Jiabao in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 76.4 marks, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao ranked 2nd to 3rd and attained 73.7 and 72.9 marks correspondingly, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin and Lien Chan who ranked 4th to 6th with respective scores of 60.8, 59.0 and 53.2 marks. Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian ranked 7th to 9th and attained 42.0, 40.5 and 16.4 marks correspondingly. Lu Hsiu-lien has been on the list for three times with 35.3 marks and ranked the 10th. Xi Jinping has been on the list once with 61.8 marks at the 11th place.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of top 10 cross-strait political figures rating by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-23/3/11		18-29 years old	30-49 years old	50 years old or above
Wen Jiabao ^[12]	72.7+/-1.5 (Base=542)	70.0 +/-2.9 (Base=110)	70.8 +/-2.3 (Base=215)	75.8 +/-2.6 (Base=216)
Zhu Rongji ^[12]	71.5+/-1.7 (Base=446)	60.2 +/-3.3 (Base=81)	69.9 +/-2.5 (Base=199)	78.3 +/-2.6 (Base=185)
Hu Jintao^[12]	69.2+/-1.4 (Base=561)	66.5 +/-3.2 (Base=107)	67.2 +/-2.1 (Base=231)	72.5 +/-2.4 (Base=223)
Ma Ying-jeou	60.3 +/-1.4 (Base=500)	61.7+/-2.2 (Base=119)	58.5+/-2.5 (Base=180)	61.1+/-2.4 (Base=202)
Jiang Zemin	58.3+/-1.9 (Base=502)	58.2 +/-3.8 (Base=104)	55.9 +/-3.3 (Base=198)	60.7 +/-2.8 (Base=201)
Lien Chan^[12]	54.4+/-1.8 (Base=445)	54.5 +/-2.8 (Base=85)	51.8 +/-2.9 (Base=184)	57.0 +/-3.1 (Base=176)
Lee Teng-hui^[12]	41.1+/-2.3 (Base=435)	49.0 +/-3.8 (Base=89)	41.3 +/-3.5 (Base=185)	36.4 +/-4.1 (Base=162)
Li Peng^[12]	39.9+/-2.3 (Base=473)	48.9 +/-4.9 (Base=78)	37.6 +/-3.4 (Base=202)	38.7 +/-3.6 (Base=193)
Lu Hsiu-lien^[12]	35.8+/-2.1 (Base=405)	42.2 +/-4.9 (Base=76)	35.4 +/-3.2 (Base=160)	33.4 +/-3.3 (Base=168)
Chen Shui-bian^[12]	17.3+/-1.7 (Base=520)	24.5 +/-3.8 (Base=108)	17.0 +/-2.5 (Base=201)	14.0 +/-2.7 (Base=211)

[12] Differences among sub-groups tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 18 to 24, 2010 while the latest survey was conducted from March 14 to 23, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/3/11	Premier Wen Jiabao advises HK to plan developments and resolve social conflicts.
8/2/11	PRC Government implements different policies to curb inflation.
31/1/11	China sends planes for Hong Kong travelers as protests continued in Egypt.
19/1/11	President Hu Jintao arrives in US for state visit.
26/12/10	Premier Wen Jiabao says the inflation and the issue of rising price of property will be tackled soon.
12/12/10	Chinese Government implements more policies to curb inflation.
10/12/10	An empty chair represents Liu Xiaobo to be honoured by the Nobel Peace Prize.
27/11/10	The municipal elections is held in Taiwan.
13/11/10	Hu Jintao and Donald Tsang meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Leaders Meeting in Yokohama.
16/10/10	The sovereignty dispute over Diaoyu Islands triggered large-scale demonstrations in both China and Japan.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed,"Compared to 6 months ago, there is not much change in the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures. On the awareness level, Xi Jinping who was ranked the 4th last time has now dropped out of the list because of his relatively low recognition rate, while Lu Hsiu-lien has re-entered the list to occupy the 9th place. This makes our top 10 list a 50:50 split again across the two sides of the strait. In terms of support rating, among the 9 best known figures who continue to stay on the list, 3 register significant gains in their ratings while 3 register significant drops, with Li Peng's rating reaching its record low since the survey began in 1997. As for their relative rankings, Wen Jiabao continues to top the list, while Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao continue to rank 2nd and 3rd. All positions have not changed much. Further analysis shows that those of age 50 or above give relatively higher ratings to Wen Jiabao, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao, and lower ratings to Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, probably reflecting the patriotic complex of the older generation. It should be noted that our list of 'top 10 cross-strait political figures' only include those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "'Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

April 6, 2011 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSARG