HKU POP SITE releases the latest trust and confidence indicators, and survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on March 22, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |

Abstract

The latest surveys conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong show that people's trust in the HKSAR government has again dropped below that of the Beijing Central government. People's net trust in the local government now stands at positive 14 percentage points, while that of the Central government now stands at positive 20 percentage points. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 24 percentage points. Compared with three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has gone down significantly but still remains above 60%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has not changed much, while their confidence in China's future has increased significantly. Their net confidence now stand at positive 31 and positive 73 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in 'one country, two systems' has remained stable, with a net confidence of positive 30 percentage points. However, those who consider 'one country, two systems' applicable to Taiwan has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points, to just 40%. Besides, people's net confidence in reunification across the strait has narrowed down to just 1 percentage point. Further analysis shows that our 'post 80s' distrust both the local and central governments much more than than the 'non post 80s'. Recent events that might have affected the ups and downs of these figures include the incidents of Liu Xiaobo and Zhao Lianhai, the delivery and then revisions of the Budget, as well as the anti-Budget demonstrations. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rates of the surveys are 64% and 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey about confidence towards different governments and about future confidence is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 65.4% response rate. In addition, the sample size of the survey about Taiwan issues is 1,000, not 1,000 x 64.2%. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems", as well as various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
1-9/3/2011 (Survey on trust and confidence indicators)	1,003	65.4%	+/-3%
8-14/3/2011 (Survey on Taiwan issues)	1,000	64.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, people's confidence in the future and the views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey^[7]	3/2010	6/2010	9/2010	12/2010	3/2011	Latest Change
Total sample size^[8]	1,005	1,004	1,011	1,013	1,003/1,000	--
Overall response rate	64.2%	68.2%	65.3%	67.4%	65.4%/64.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[9]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[10]	46%	41%^[11]	53%^[11]	44%^[11]	42+/-4%	-2%
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[10]	26%^[11]	31%^[11]	16%^[11]	22%^[11]	28+/-3%	+6%^[11]
Mean value^[10]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=995)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=989)	3.4+/-0.1^[11] (Base=994)	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base=996)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=553)	-0.1
Trust in Beijing Government^[10]	48%	42%^[11]	42%	37%^[11]	44+/-4%	+7%^[11]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[10]	29%^[11]	32%	22%^[11]	32%^[11]	24+/-4%	-8%^[11]
Mean value^[10]	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base=975)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=975)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=965)	3.0+/-0.1^[11] (Base=974)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=515)	+0.2^[11]
Trust in Taiwan Government^[10]	16%	18%	13%^[11]	14%	19+/-3%	+5%^[11]
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[10]	49%^[11]	43%^[11]	35%^[11]	42%^[11]	43+/-4%	+1%
Mean value^[10]	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=838)	2.6+/-0.1^[11] (Base=813)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=763)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=831)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=434)	+0.1
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	71%^[11]	73%	71%	75%^[11]	63+/-4%	-12%^[11]
Taiwan independence: Support rate	14%	17%^[11]	15%	15%	20+/-3%	+5%^[11]
Confidence in HK's future	68%	60%^[11]	69%^[11]	62%^[11]	63+/-4%	+1%
No-confidence in HK's future	27%	35%^[11]	23%^[11]	30%^[11]	32+/-4%	+2%
Confidence in China's future	86%	83%^[11]	81%	77%^[11]	83+/-3%	+6%^[11]
No-confidence in China's future	10%	13%^[11]	13%	15%	10+/-3%	-5%^[11]
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	64%	57%^[11]	62%^[11]	61%	62+/-4%	+1%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	31%	39%^[11]	29%^[11]	32%	32+/-4%	--
Believed 'one country, two systems' was applicable to Taiwan	53%	46%^[11]	47%	50%	40+/-4%	-10%^[11]
Believed 'one country, two systems' was not applicable to Taiwan	35%	41%^[11]	38%	38%	42+/-4%	+4%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	49%^[11]	53%^[11]	49%^[11]	49%	45+/-4%	-4%
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	40%^[11]	37%	38%	42%^[11]	44+/-4%	+2%

[7] Surveys on trust and distrust of the HKSAR Government, Beijing Government and Taiwan Government and confidence in HK's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" were conducted in 1-3/3/2010, 9-13/6/2010, 7-11/9/2010, 13-16/12/2010 respectively. And, surveys on Taiwan independence, applicability of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan and confidence in cross-strait reunification were conducted in 9-15/3/2010, 9-13/6/2010, 7-11/9/2010, 6-10/12/2010 respectively.
[8] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 518 to 603, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 42% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 44% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 19% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.1, 3.2 and 2.6 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 63% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 83% had confidence in China's future, while 62% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems". In addition, latest survey revealed that 63% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 20% showed support. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 40% gave a positive view while 42% gave a negative answer. 45% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 44% expressed no confidence.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Government by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 1-9/3/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/ distrust in HKSAR Government	Trust	40+/-10% (36)	39+/-6% (90)	46+/-7% (110)	42+/-4% (235)
	Half-half	27+/-9% (24)	31+/-6% (71)	27+/-6% (64)	29+/-4% (159)
	Distrust	34+/-10% (31)	29+/-6% (66)	25+/-6% (59)	28+/-4% (156)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	0+/-0% (1)	2+/-2% (6)	1+/-1% (7)
	Total	100% (91)	100% (227)	100% (238)	100% (557)
	Mean value	3.0+/-0.2 (Base=91)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=227)	3.2+/-0.2 (Base=232)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=550)

Date of survey: 1-9/3/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/ distrust in Beijing Government	Trust	34+/-10% (31)	40+/-7% (82)	51+/-7% (117)	44+/-4% (230)
	Half-half	21+/-9% (19)	35+/-7% (73)	26+/-6% (60)	29+/-4% (152)
	Distrust	42+/-10% (39)	23+/-6% (48)	18+/-5% (42)	24+/-4% (129)
	Don't know/ hard to say	2+/-3% (2)	2+/-2% (5)	4+/-3% (9)	3+/-1% (16)
	Total	100% (92)	100% (208)	100% (228)	100% (528)
	Mean value	2.8+/-0.3 (Base=90)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=203)	3.4+/-0.2 (Base=219)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=511)

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 13 to 16, 2010 while some items within this survey was conducted from March 8 to 14, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
6/3/11	Police clash with protestors in Anti-Budget demonstration.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
1/3/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen injured by a protestor.
23/2/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang unveils the annual budget of 2011-2012.
8/2/11	PRC Government implements different policies to curb inflation.
31/1/11	China sends planes for Hong Kong travelers as protests continued in Egypt.
29/12/10	Hong Kong people concerns Zhao Lianhai's case.
26/12/10	Premier Wen Jiabao says the inflation and the issue of rising price of property will be tackled soon.
10/12/10	An empty chair represents Liu Xiaobo to be honoured by the Nobel Peace Prize.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest surveys show that people's trust in the HKSAR government has again dropped below that of the Beijing Central government. People's net trust in the local government now stands at positive 14 percentage points, while that of the Central government now stands at positive 20 percentage points. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 24 percentage points. Compared with three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has gone down significantly but still remains above 60%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has not changed much, while their confidence in China's future has increased significantly. Their net confidence now stand at positive 31 and positive 73 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in 'one country, two systems' has remained stable, with a net confidence of positive 30 percentage points. However, those who consider 'one country, two systems' applicable to Taiwan has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points, to just 40%. Besides, people's net confidence in reunification across the strait has narrowed down to just 1 percentage point. Further analysis shows that our 'post 80s' distrust both the local and central governments much more than than the 'non post 80s'. Recent events that might have affected the ups and downs of these figures include the incidents of Liu Xiaobo and Zhao Lianhai, the delivery and then revisions of the Budget, as well as the anti-Budget demonstrations. However, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

March 29, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget follow-up survey