HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on March 15, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between March 1 and 9 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has recovered significantly compared to two weeks ago, almost going back to the level registered before the Budget Speech. This shows that the Financial Secretary's significant revision to his budget proposals has stopped the bleeding. However, the disapproval rate of CE Donald Tsang still remains high at 54%, with a net popularity of negative 23 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating is still 5.8 marks lower than that registered on the Budget Day, down to 46.6 marks, which is record low since he became FS, while his disapproval rate surges 15 percentage points to reach record high. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at negative 6 percentage points. Compared to the positive 34 percentage points registered before the Budget, it has deep dived 40 percentage points. Further analysis shows that Donald Tsang and John Tsang continue to receive poorest evaluation from the post-80 youngsters. As for the other Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating of CS Henry Tang increased significantly by 2.5 marks to 51.2, while the popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. The net approval rates of the two Secretaries stand at positive 16 and positive 58 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 6 among 12 Directors have gone down, 4 have gone up and 2 remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 9, 6, 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 25 and negative 3 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that the disapproval rate of Michael Suen has not only reached record high since he became Secretary for Education, but is also very close to the 50% benchmark of"depressing performance", which may affect education policies. According to POP's standard, Ambrose Lee falls under the category of"ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung and York Chow now fall under the category of"successful". Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Henry Tang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen can be labeled as"mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as"inconspicuous". Donald Tsang can be labeled as"depressing" while no official falls under the category of"disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 65.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
1-9/3/2011	1,003	65.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	5-12/1/11	18-26/1/11	7-11/2/11	21-25/2/11	1-9/3/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,025	1,018	1,027	1,020	1,003	--
Overall response rate	64.9%	65.8%	67.1%	71.4%	65.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	54.6^[9]	53.5	51.9^[9]	48.7^[9]	51.2+/-1.4	+2.5^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	38%	34%^[9]	31%	31+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	45%	46%	50%^[9]	55%^[9]	54+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	-6%	-8%	-16%	-23%	-23%	--

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	6-10/12/10	5-12/1/11	7-11/2/11	23/2/11	1-9/3/11	Latest change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	1,011	536-549	566-574	1,031	539-567	--
Overall response rate	65.0%	64.9%	67.1%	72.8%	65.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Henry Tang	54.5^[12]	55.4	48.7^[12]	--	51.2+/-1.8	+2.5^[12]
Vote of confidence in CS Henry Tang	45%^[12]	46%	34%^[12]	--	39+/-4%	+5%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in CS Henry Tang	18%	18%	27%^[12]	--	23+/-4%	-4%
Net approval rate	28%	25%	7%	--	16%	+9%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	55.5	55.2	55.4	52.4	46.6+/-2.1	-5.8^[12]
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	49%	43%^[12]	51%^[12]	36%	31+/-4%	-5%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	16%^[12]	22%^[12]	17%^[12]	22%	37+/-4%	+15^[12]
Net approval rate	33%	21%	34%	14%	-6%	-20%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	60.9	60.9	59.6	--	61.1+/-1.6	+1.5
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	62%	59%	60%	--	61+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	8%	6%	7%	--	3+/-2%	-4%^[12]
Net approval rate	54%	53%	53%	--	58%	+5%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	5-12/1/11		7-11/2/11		1-9/3/11		Latest change
Total sample size^[13]	1,025		1,027		1,003		--
Overall response rate	64.9%		67.1%		65.4%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	%& error^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	543	66%	599	63%	548	67+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	543	8%^[15]	599	9%	548	9+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	--	58%	--	54%	--	58%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	565	48%	553	47%	568	51+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	565	24%	553	22%	568	23+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	24%	--	25%	--	28%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	528	49%^[15]	529	51%	553	45+/-4%	-6%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	528	16%^[15]	529	15%	553	15+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	33%	--	36%	--	30%	-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	565	47%	563	51%	537	42+/-4%	-9%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	565	14%	563	15%	537	16+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	33%	--	36%	--	26%	-10%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng^[16]	540	36%^[15]	559	39%	528	36+/-4%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	540	25%	559	22%	528	23+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	11%	--	17%	--	13%	-4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau^[16]	549	35%	548	36%	552	36+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	549	25%	548	23%	552	21+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	10%	--	13%	--	15%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	572	36%	564	36%	558	35+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	572	12%	564	12%	558	11+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	24%	--	24%	--	24%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	578	32%	544	27%^[15]	561	31+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	578	30%	544	34%	561	26+/-4%	-8%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	2%	--	-7%	--	5%	+12%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	554	26%	619	28%	567	29+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	554	37%	619	39%	567	32+/-4%	-7%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	-11%	--	-11%	--	-3%	+8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	555	24%^[15]	600	28%	568	28+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	555	25%	600	16%^[15]	568	14+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	-1%	--	12%	--	14%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	575	26%	576	30%	558	25+/-4%	-5%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	575	14%	576	13%	558	14+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	12%	--	17%	--	11%	-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	568	30%	620	30%	548	24+/-4%	-6%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	568	42%	620	38%	548	49+/-4%	+11%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	-12%	--	-8%	--	-25%	-17%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng is 36.5%, while that of Secretary for Environment Edward Yau is 35.6%.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.2 marks, and 31% supported him as the Chief Executive, thus his net approval rate is negative 23%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 51.2, 46.6 and 61.1 marks, and 39%, 31% and 61% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 16%, negative 6% and positive 58% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 67%. His net approval rate is positive 58%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, with approval rate 51%, 45% and 42% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 28%, 30% and 26% respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 5th to 12th, as they gained 36%, 36%, 35%, 31%, 29%, 28%, 25% and 24% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 13%, positive 15%, positive 24%, positive 5%, negative 3%, positive 14%, positive 11% and negative 25%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee and York Chow scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the ratings of CE Donald Tsang and FS John Tsang by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 1-9/3/11		18-29 years old	30-49 years old	50 years old or above
Rating of CE Donald Tsang^[17]	51.3+/-1.4 (Base=979)	48.1+/-2.7 (Base=190)	51.0+/-2.1 (Base=390)	53.2+/-2.3 (Base=398)
Rating of FS John Tsang	46.6+/-2.1 (Base=542)	44.3+/-4.6 (Base=105)	45.2+/-3.2 (Base=215)	49.1+/-3.3 (Base=222)

[17] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from February 7 to 11, 2011 while this survey was conducted from March 1 to 9, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/3/11	The Legislative Council rejects a HK$60.2 billion bill for initial expenditure for the new fiscal year.
6/3/11	Police clash with protestors in Anti-Budget demonstration.
3/3/11	Many newspapers comment on the budget's amendments.
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
1/3/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen injured by a protestor.
28/2/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will amend the annual budget.
27/2/11	HK people are dissatisfied with the annual budget.
24/2/11	The annual budget receives more reproof than praise.
23/2/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang unveils the annual budget of 2011-2012.
11/2/11	Government adjusts Work Incentive Transport Subsidy Scheme.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has recovered significantly compared to two weeks ago, almost going back to the level registered before the Budget Speech. This shows that the Financial Secretary's significant revision to his budget proposals has stopped the bleeding. However, the disapproval rate of CE Donald Tsang still remains high at 54%, with a net popularity of negative 23 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating is still 5.8 marks lower than that registered on the Budget Day, down to 46.6 marks, which is record low since he became FS, while his disapproval rate surges 15 percentage points to reach record high. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at negative 6 percentage points. Compared to the positive 34 percentage points registered before the Budget, it has deep dived 40 percentage points. Further analysis shows that Donald Tsang and John Tsang continue to receive poorest evaluation from the post-80 youngsters.

As for the other Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating of CS Henry Tang increased significantly by 2.5 marks to 51.2, while the popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. The net approval rates of the two Secretaries stand at positive 16 and positive 58 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 6 among 12 Directors have gone down, 4 have gone up and 2 remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 9, 6, 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 25 and negative 3 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that the disapproval rate of Michael Suen has not only reached record high since he became Secretary for Education, but is also very close to the 50% benchmark of"depressing performance", which may affect education policies.

According to POP's standard, Ambrose Lee falls under the category of"ideal" performance. Wong Yan-lung and York Chow now fall under the category of"successful". Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Henry Tang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen can be labeled as"mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as"inconspicuous". Donald Tsang can be labeled as"depressing" while no official falls under the category of"disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (67%)

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

SJ Wong Yan-lung (61%); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (51%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (45%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (42%); CS Henry Tang Ying-yen (39%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (36%[18]); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (36%[18]); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (31%[18]); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung (31%[18]); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (29%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (24%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (35%, 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (28%, 42%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan (25%, 39%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (54%)

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates

None

[18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng is 36.5%, while that of Secretary for Environment Edward Yau is 35.6%; the approval rate of FS Financial Secretary John Tsang is 31.4%, while that of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam is 30.7%.

Future Release (Tentative)

March 22, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators, Taiwan issues