HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in February by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted after the death of Szeto Wah but before the Budget Speech shows that, compared to three months ago, the ratings of HKASPDMC, HKCTU, DP and CP have all gone up significantly to new highs in recent years. HKASPDMC even moves to the top position for the first time since this series of survey began in 1992, no doubt due to people's commemoration of Szeto Wah. In terms of relative rankings, HKASPDMC now occupies the top position, followed by HKCTU. DP and CP swap positions to rank the 3rd and 4th. NWS re-enters the list the first time since November 2009, after passing the recognition benchmark to occupy the 5th place. FTU which ranked first last time drops five places to become 6th, ADPL and DAB drop one and two positions respectively to become 7th and 9th. LP advances one position to rank 8th, while LSD continues to take the 10th position. With the establishment of new political groups like Neo-Democrats, New People's Party, People Power and the like, people's knowledge and feelings towards local political groups may well change. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.9 and +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,027 successful interviews, not 1,027 x 67.1% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,066 successful interviews, not 1,066 x 65.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings[5]
7-11/2/11 (First stage naming survey)	1,027	67.1%	+/-4%
15-19/2/11 (Second stage rating survey)	1,066	65.9%	+/-2.5

[5] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from February 7 to 11. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), League of Social Democrats (LSD) and Civic Party (CP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from February 15 to 19, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	18-20/5/10	17-20/8/10	17-27/11/10	15-19/2/2011		Latest change
Sample base	1,015	1,006	1,001	501-586		--
Overall response rate	72.5%	64.4%	69.7%	65.9%		--
Finding /Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[6]	Recognition rate	--
HKASPDMC	47.6{3}[8]	49.2{4}[8]	49.6 {5}	57.5+/-2.2 {1}	82%	+7.9[8]
HKCTU	49.9{1}[8]	51.1{1}	52.1 {2}	56.2+/-2.0 {2}	81%	+4.1[8]
DP	46.6{5}[8]	49.7{3}[8]	49.9 {4}	53.3+/-1.9 {3}[9]	88%	+3.4[8]
CP	44.5{7}[8]	48.9{5}[8]	50.0 {3}	53.3+/-2.0 {4}[9]	82%	+3.3[8]
NWS	49.8[7][8]	50.5[7]	52.0[7] [8]	52.8+/-2.3 {5}	67%[11]	+0.8
FTU	47.7{2}[8]	50.5{2}[8]	52.8 {1}[8]	52.5+/-2.1 {6}	85%	-0.3
ADPL	47.4{4}[8]	48.3{6}	49.1 {6}	48.5+/-1.9 {7}	73%	-0.6
LP	40.8{9}[8]	43.7{9}[8]	43.9 {9}	44.6+/-1.9 {8}	85%	+0.7
DAB	43.0{8}[8]	47.8{7}[8]	48.3 {7}	44.2+/-2.2 {9}	87%	-4.1[8]
LSD	36.6{10}[8]	33.6{10}[8]	36.2 {10}[8]	37.3+/-2.4 {10}	83%	+1.1
Frontier	45.0{6}[8]	44.7{8}	47.5 {8}[8]	46.9[7]+/-2.2	67%[11]	-0.6
New People's Party[10]	--	--	--	45.8[7]+/-2.5	55%	--
Civil Force	42.6[7][8]	42.7[7]	--	--	--	--

[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[7] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] In February 2011, the ratings of DP and CP are 53.27 and 53.25 respectively in 2 decimal places. Therefore, DP and CP ranked at 3rd and 4th places respectively.
[10] New People's Party established in January 2011.
[11] In one decimal place, the recognition rate of NWS is 67.0%, while that of Frontier is 66.7%. So NWS entered the top 10 list, while Frontier was dropped

Findings obtained in second half of February showed that, the best-known political group was the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) which attained 57.5 marks. Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) scored 56.2 marks and ranked 2nd. The 3rd to 8th places were Democratic Party (DP), Civic Party (CP), Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS), Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) and Liberal Party (LP), attaining 53.3, 53.3, 52.8, 52.5, 48.5 and 44.6 marks respectively. The 9th and 10th places fell to Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) and League of Social Democrats (LSD), with a respective score of 44.2 and 37.3. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 54.6 marks. For this latest survey, Frontier and New People's Party obtained a support rating of 46.9 and 45.8 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-20/5/10	17-20/8/10	17-27/11/10	15-19/2/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[12]	Overall ranking[13]
HKCTU	49.9	51.1	52.1	56.2	4	52.3	{1}
HKASPDMC	47.6	49.2	49.6	57.5	4	51.0	{2}
FTU	47.7	50.5	52.8	52.5	4	50.9	{3}
DP	46.6	49.7	49.9	53.3	4	49.9	{4}
CP	44.5	48.9	50.0	53.3	4	49.2	{5}
ADPL	47.4	48.3	49.1	48.5	4	48.4	{6}
DAB	43.0	47.8	48.3	44.2	4	45.8	{7}
LP	40.8	43.7	43.9	44.6	4	43.3	{8}
LSD	36.6	33.6	36.2	37.3	4	35.9	{9}
Frontier	45.0	44.7	47.5	-	3	45.7	{10}
NWS	-	-	-	52.8	1	52.8	{11}

[12] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[13] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top nine political groups were listed for four times. HKCTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 52.3 marks. HKASPDMC, FTU, DP and CP ranked 2nd to 5th, attaining 51.0, 50.9, 49.9 and 49.2 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 6th to 9th ranks fell to ADPL, DAB, LP and LSD, with respective average ratings of 48.4, 45.8, 43.3 and 35.9 marks. Frontier was listed for three times, ranked the 10th, with an average rating of 45.7. NWS was listed once, now ranked the 11th with 52.8 marks.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 17 to 27 while this survey was conducted from February 15 to 19. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

11/2/11	Government adjusts Work Incentive Transport Subsidy Scheme.
29/1/11	Hundreds of friends of Szeto Wah pay respects at mourning sessions at the church.
14/1/11	The grown-up mainland children of Hong Kong people are allowed the right of abode in Hong Kong.
4/1/11	Hong Kong Government gives up on landfill expansion and suggests to launch a new series of waste management plan.
2/1/11	Szeto Wah passes away.
29/12/10	Hong Kong people concerns Zhao Lianhai's case.
14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
13/12/10	HK Government provides monthly HK$600 work incentive travel subsidies to 330,000 low-income workers.
8/12/10	LegCo releases report on the post-retirement employment of former top housing official Leung Chin-man.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey of 'Top 10 Political Groups' conducted after the death of Szeto Wah but before the Budget Speech shows that, compared to three months ago, the ratings of HKASPDMC, HKCTU, DP and CP have all gone up significantly to new highs in recent years. HKASPDMC even moves to the top position for the first time since this series of survey began in 1992, no doubt due to people's commemoration of Szeto Wah. In terms of relative rankings, HKASPDMC now occupies the top position, followed by HKCTU. DP and CP swap positions to rank the 3rd and 4th. NWS re-enters the list the first time since November 2009, after passing the recognition benchmark to occupy the 5th place. FTU which ranked first last time drops five places to become 6th, ADPL and DAB drop one and two positions respectively to become 7th and 9th. LP advances one position to rank 8th, while LSD continues to take the 10th position. It should be noted, however, that our 'Top 10 Political Groups' only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. With the establishment of new political groups like Neo-Democrats, New People's Party, People Power and the like, people's knowledge and feelings towards local political groups may well change. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• March 15, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials