"POP-NOW Public Sentiment Index Survey" released for the first timeBack
| Press Release on March 3, 2011 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Background | Latest Figures | Indepth analyses | Commentary | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Background
Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In January 2011, POP came into agreement with the"now News Channel" for a project called"Public Sentiment Index". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of public sentiment, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular opinion surveys and other public opinion studies. The survey results will first be released in the"now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption."now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that"now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. This is the first release of the survey series. Please cite the source of the figures when using them.
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Latest Figures
The latest survey findings released by POP through now News Channel today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Latest findings are as follows: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I. Overall ratings and satisfaction levels of society's conditions
[2] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [4] The frequency of survey for this series of question are different, comparison should be made within the same period of survey. [5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The survey results in late January show that the overall satisfaction rating of social current conditions was 55.2 marks. Among the three different areas, 27% expressed satisfaction with the economic condition while 43% were dissatisfied. For the livelihood condition, 20% were satisfied while 49% were dissatisfied. In addition, 19% were satisfied with the political condition and 44% were dissatisfied. The mean values of economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.8, 2.6 and 2.6 marks respectively. In late February, the overall satisfaction rating of social current conditions stands at 52.9 marks. And the importance ratings of three conditions are 6.9 marks (economic), 6.8 marks (livelihood) and 6.0 marks (political) respectively. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
II. Level of"anger" and"joy"
[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[7] The term"excitement" was used in the question of the survey in June 2010. Since January 2011, this term has been replaced by the term"joy". [8] The frequency of survey for this series of question are different and therefore comparison should be made within the same period of survey. [9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The survey results in late January show that, 19% of the respondents would describe themselves as"angry", while 79% would not. In late February, 26% said they were angry while 72% said they were not. The mean scores of"anger" in both surveys are 47.7 and 50.1 marks respectively. The survey in late January also found that, 12% would describe themselves as"joyful", while 85% would not. The mean score of"joy" was 46.4 marks. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
III. Specific incidents that made people angry
[10] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[11] Asking those respondents who claimed themselves"angry", the sub-sample is 267. [12] Asking all respondents, the sample is 1,013. Over the past 3 months, what incidents in the Hong Kong society made people angry? Results show that 55% of those who were angry mentioned"the Budget Talk", 27% chose"high inflation" and 23%"high property price in Hong Kong". Other answers included"the performance of the Government and officials" (7%),"Work Incentive Transport Subsidy Scheme" (7%) and"activists for democracy being rejected to enter Hong Kong" (4%), etc. Finally, the mean score of"anger" towards the Budget Talk is 58.2 marks. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indepth analyses
In the survey, we also asked respondents to classify themselves which one of the five social strata they belonged to. The options were: upper, upper-middle, middle-middle, lower-middle and lower stratum or grassroots. According to the choice of respondents, we grouped them into relatively upper, relatively middle and relatively lower strata, or in short form upper, middle and lower strata. Each stratum contains about one-third of the sample. The following table shows the mapping between respondents' choice and their final grouping:
Herewith further analysis of the level of"anger" by respondents' social strata in February survey:
In addition, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the rating of"anger" by respondents' age in February survey:
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on March 3, 2011 in the"now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.
Q: What are the reasons for conducting the"now Public Sentiment Index survey"? A: The main objective of"Public Sentiment Index Survey" is to develop an index which can indicate the public sentiment of Hong Kong, but regularly mapping society's degree of harmony and its distance from social eruption. We consider"anger and grievance" to be much more than mere"dissatisfaction". Therefore,"grievance" is a much stronger indicator of public sentiment than"dissatisfaction". Similarly, when people become strongly satisfied with society, they will become"joyful". Therefore,"joy" is a much stronger indicator than"satisfaction". When most people are"angry" or"joyful", collective behaviour may happen at time. When most people are in between"angry" and"joyful", meaning that their appraisal of the current condition is between"moderately dissatisfied" and"moderately satisfied", they tend not to participate in collective activities easily. In other words, if nobody is"angry", no matter they are"moderately dissatisfied" or"moderately satisfied", or even"joyful", the whole society should be in the status of"harmony and joy". Q: How is the"public sentiment index" formulated? A: The pilot survey of public sentiment index was conducted in June 2010. Starting from January 2011, this survey is conducted once a month, successfully interviewing at least 1,000 respondents each time with about 10 questions. The survey would last for one year in the first instance. By asking people regularly their level of satisfaction towards the current situation and the importance of its different aspects (including political, economic and livelihood conditions), their feelings of anger and joy, their reactions towards specific incidents, and so on, we hope to formulate a"public sentiment index" gradually. Q: What are the latest findings? A: Our latest survey conducted in late February 2011 shows that people's"angry level" has increased significantly after the Budget speech, while the percentage of those describing themselves as"angry" and the overall rating of"anger" level have both increased significantly. The"anger" rating of"post-80s" is the highest among all sub-groups, with 54.4 marks, while that of grassroots is the highest among all social strata, at 52.1 marks. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Background | Latest Figures | Indepth analyses | Commentary | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
