HKU POP releases a Budget instant pollBack
| Press Release on February 24, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted an instant survey last night on the Budget, after Financial Secretary John Tsang gave his Budget Talk earlier in the day. Preliminary results of the survey have already been published by our media sponsors last night, including NOW TV News and Asia TV. We acknowledge their contribution, and are now releasing all the findings to the general public.
Moreover, a"POPCON" electronic platform which integrates social-networking, entertainment, shopping and education (SESE) activities targeted at young people was also launched yesterday, registering over 3,500 hits at the time of this release. POPCON carries a"Budget Forum for Youths" run by POP and the Boys' and Girls' Clubs Association of Hong Kong (BGCA), and the address of POPCON is http://popcon.hkupop.pori.hk. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,031 Hong Kong people last night (23 February) by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. After excluding those respondents who said they had heard nothing of the Budget, this year's instant survey showed that 27% were satisfied with the Budget, 35% were dissatisfied and 34% said"half-half". The average rating registered for the Budget was 51.5 marks, with a recognition rate of 86%. The survey also showed that the latest rating of FS John Tsang after his Budget Talk was 52.4 marks, with approval and disapproval rates of 36% and 22% respectively. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 73%.
Points to note: [1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,031 successful interviews, not 1,031 x 72.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Background
Since 1992, HKUPOP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. From 1998 onwards, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In free and democratic societies, instant surveys are indispensable sources of free information. Combined with appropriate follow-up surveys, and in parallel to expert analyses, they give a multi-dimensional picture of opinion development. They are an important part of a society's interactive development. Starting 2008, we split up previous years' instant survey into two surveys. In our first survey, we measure people's overall appraisal of the Budget, their rating of the Budget, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and FS's popularity. In our second survey, we focus on people's reactions towards different government proposals, their satisfaction with the government's fiscal policies, and other relevant issues. Starting 2011, we revised our design to concentrate on people's appraisal of the Budget and FS's popularity in our instant survey, and move the remaining questions to our follow-up survey. The instant survey released today is our first release under our new operation.
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Latest Figures
The findings of the Budget instant poll released by the POP SITE today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
People's satisfaction figures with this year's Budget are summarized below together with the previous findings:
[8] Sub-samples exclude those respondents who said they had heard nothing of the Budget, while"recognition rates" used to indicate people's knowledge level further exclude those who answered"don't know / hard to say". [9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale, with sub-sample base excluding those who said they had heard nothing of the Budget. Since the base is smaller, the sampling error is bigger. [10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. After excluding those respondents who said they had heard nothing of the Budget, this year's instant survey showed that 27% were satisfied with the Budget, 35% were dissatisfied and 34% said "half-half". The average rating registered for the Budget was 51.5 marks, with a recognition rate of 86%. Figures on various Financial Secretaries' popularity before and after their Budget Speeches since 2001[11] are summarized as follows:
[12] All errors in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected. [13] These questions only use the concerned sub-samples for the tracking surveys between 2006 and 2010. [14] The frequency of FS rating and approval rate was different before November 2005. [15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The survey showed that the latest rating of FS John Tsang after his Budget Talk was 52.4 marks, with approval and disapproval rates of 36% and 22% respectively. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of public's satisfaction rate of the Budget, and John Tsang's rating and approval rates by respondents' age:
Besides, we also asked respondents to classify themselves which one of the five social strata they belonged to. The options were: upper, upper-middle, middle-middle, lower-middle and lower stratum or grassroots. According to the choice of respondents, we grouped them into relatively upper, relatively middle and relatively lower strata, or in short form upper, middle and lower strata. Each stratum contains about one-third of the sample. The following table shows the mapping between respondents' choice and their final grouping:
Herewith further analysis by respondents' social strata:
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
