HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
Press Release on February 15, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement
As in previous years, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey next Wednesday after the Financial Secretary John Tsang gives his Budget Talk. Results are due to be published the following day. Media which would like to sponsor the survey in order to obtain results that same evening please contact us as early as possible.
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Abstract
POP interviewed 1,027 Hong Kong people between February 7 and 11 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has dropped significantly compared to two weeks ago. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 16 percentage points, which is the poorest since August 2010. Further analysis shows that CE Donald Tsang continues to receive poorest evaluation from the grassroots. However, his popularity drop this time is mainly due to reduced support from the relatively upper stratum. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating of CS Henry Tang dropped significantly by 6.5 marks to 48.7, reaching a record low since he became CS, probably due to his criticism of the post 80s. Meanwhile, the approval rate of FS John Tsang has significantly gone up by 8 percentage points, while the popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. The net approval rates of the three Secretaries of Departments are Henry Tang positive 7, John Tsang positive 34 and Wong Yan-lung positive 53 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down and 2 remained unchanged. Among them, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam has registered change in approval rate beyond sampling error, with a drop of 5-percentage-points, while only Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue has registered a drop in disapproval rate of 9-percentage-points, which is beyond sampling error. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 11, negative 8 and negative 7 percentage points respectively. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of"ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung and John Tsang now fall under the category of"successful". York Chow, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as"mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Rita Lau and Denise Yue can be labeled as"inconspicuous". Donald Tsang can be labeled as"depressing" while no official falls under the category of"disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.
Points to note: [1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,027 successful interviews, not 1,027 x 67.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [16] In two decimal places, the approval rate of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam is 50.93%, while that of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 50.87%. [17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Environment Edward Yau is 36.4%, while that of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan is 35.6%. [18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau is 30.5%, while that of Secretary for Education Michael Suen is 30.0%. [19] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing is 28.0%, while that of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue is 27.7%. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.9 marks, and 34% supported him as the Chief Executive, thus his net approval rate is negative 16%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 48.7, 55.4 and 59.6 marks, and 34%, 51% and 60% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 7%, 34% and 53% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 63%. His net approval rate is positive 54%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rate 51%, 51% and 47% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 36%, 36% and 25% respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam ranked 5th to 12th, as they gained 39%, 36%, 36%, 30%, 30%, 28%, 28% and 27% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 17%, positive 13%, positive 24%, positive 17%, negative 8%, negative 11%, positive 12% and negative 7%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents to classify themselves which one of the five social strata they belonged to. The options were: upper, upper-middle, middle-middle, lower-middle and lower stratum or grassroots. According to the choice of respondents, we grouped them into relatively upper, relatively middle and relatively lower strata, or in short form upper, middle and lower strata. Each stratum contains about one-third of the sample. The following table shows the mapping between respondents' choice and their final grouping:
Herewith further analysis of CE Donald Tsang's popularity by respondents' social strata:
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Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from January 5 to 12, 2011 while this survey was conducted from February 7 to 11, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has dropped significantly compared to two weeks ago. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 16 percentage points, which is the poorest since August 2010. Further analysis shows that CE Donald Tsang continues to receive poorest evaluation from the grassroots. However, his popularity drop this time is mainly due to reduced support from the relatively upper stratum. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the support rating of CS Henry Tang dropped significantly by 6.5 marks to 48.7, reaching a record low since he became CS, probably due to his criticism of the post 80s. Meanwhile, the approval rate of FS John Tsang has significantly gone up by 8 percentage points, while the popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung have not changed much. The net approval rates of the three Secretaries of Departments are Henry Tang positive 7, John Tsang positive 34 and Wong Yan-lung positive 53 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down and 2 remained unchanged. Among them, only Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam has registered change in approval rate beyond sampling error, with a drop of 5-percentage-points, while only Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue has registered a drop in disapproval rate of 9-percentage-points, which is beyond sampling error. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 11, negative 8 and negative 7 percentage points respectively. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of"ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung and John Tsang now fall under the category of"successful". York Chow, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as"mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Rita Lau and Denise Yue can be labeled as"inconspicuous". Donald Tsang can be labeled as"depressing" while no official falls under the category of"disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | |