HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

Press Release on February 8, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in January, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest surveys show that compared to three months ago, the popularity of different 'top 10' best known Legislative Councillors has changed in different directions. In terms of familiarity, Andrew Cheng who occupied the third position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by Lee Cheuk-yan. In terms of absolute ratings, only Emily Lau registers a significant increase over two consecutive surveys, by going up 2.5 marks. The ratings of Jasper Tsang, Tam Yiu-chung and Regina Ip have dropped significantly by 2.7, 2.5 and 2.0 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Alan Leong surpasses Audrey Eu to occupy the first place. Regina Ip drops one place to rank third, Albert Ho goes up one place to rank fourth, Lee Cheuk-yan re-enters the list to rank fifth, Emily Lau goes up 2 places to rank sixth, while the relative ranking of all others remaining on the list have changed no more than one place. This shows that recent personnel changes of many political groups have little effect on the ranking of these 'top 10' councillors. Further analysis shows that the 'post 80s' support Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man significantly more than other age groups, while those of age 50 or above support Alan Leong and Audrey Eu significantly less than other age groups. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.5 and +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,042 successful interviews, not 1,042 x 66.1% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 67.1% response rate.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures.
[4] When quoting the rating figures of this survey, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings ^[6]
11-19/1/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,042	66.1%	+/-3%
20-31/1/2011 (Second stage rating survey)	1,017	67.1%	+/-2.2

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Leung Kwok-hung, Wong Yuk-man, Audrey Eu, Lee Cheuk-yan and Regina Ip were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late January, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	18-21/1/10	26-29/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	20-31/1/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,013	1,010	1,010	1,013	1,017	--
Overall response rate	66.9%	69.5%	64.1%	65.4%	67.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Alan Leong	53.8 {2}^[9]	--	56.2{1}	59.3 {4}^[9]	60.8 {1} +/-1.6	+1.5
Audrey Eu	55.1 {1}^[9]	53.9 {2}	55.9{2}^[9]	62.2 {1}^[9]	60.5 {2} +/-1.8	-1.7
Regina Ip	--	55.1 {1}	--	59.9 {2}	57.9 {3} +/-1.5	-2.0^[9]
Albert Ho	51.8 {5}	51.2 {5}	55.2{3}^[9]	56.7 {5}^[9]	56.7 {4} +/-1.5	--
Lee Cheuk-yan	52.1 {4}^[9]	52.4 {3}	54.7{4}^[9]	--	55.7 {5} +/-1.9	+1.0
Emily Lau	53.7 {3}^[9]	50.8 {6}^[9]	54.3{5}^[9]	53.0 {8}	55.5 {6} +/-1.6	+2.5^[9]
Jasper Tsang	50.1 {6}^[9]	50.3 {7}	53.1{7}^[9]	55.3 {6}^[9]	52.6 {7} +/-1.7	-2.7^[9]
Tam Yiu-chung	48.7 {7}	48.7 {8}	--	54.4 {7}	51.9 {8} +/-1.7	-2.5^[9]
Leung Kwok-hung	32.8 {10}	--	26.5{10}	31.9 {10}^[9]	33.8 {9} +/-2.2	+1.9
Wong Yuk-man	35.3 {9}	--	28.0{9}	33.8 {9}^[9]	33.6 {10} +/-2.2	-0.2
Tanya Chan	52.6^[8]	--	--	57.2^[8]	58.3^[8] +/-1.7	+1.1
Albert Chan	38.5 {8}	--	33.6{8}	39.9^[8]^[9]	40.1^[8] +/-2.2	+0.2
Andrew Cheng	--	--	54.1{6}	59.5 {3}^[9]	--	--
Cheung Man-kwong	--	53.4^[8]	54.9^[8]	--	--	--
Lee Wing-tat	--	51.6 {4}	53.0^[8]	--	--	--
Paul Tse	--	47.5 {9}	--	--	--	--
Lau Wong-fat	--	42.1 {10}	--	--	--	--
Lau Kong-wah	43.5^[8]^[9]	46.0^[8]^[9]	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. For the January 2011 survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 506 and 562, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in late January showed that Alan Leong was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 60.8 marks while Audrey Eu ranked the second with 60.5 marks. Regina Ip, Albert Ho, Lee Cheuk-yan and Emily Lau ranked the 3rd to 6th with 57.9, 56.7, 55.7 and 55.5 marks correspondingly. The 7th and 8th ranks went to Jasper Tsang and Tam Yiu-chung, who attained 52.6 and 51.9 marks respectively. Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 9th and 10th, attaining 33.8 and 33.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 58.3 marks, while that for the top 10 was 51.9 marks. For this latest survey, Tanya Chan and Albert Chan obtained support ratings of 58.3 and 40.1 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	26-29/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	20-31/1/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating^[10]	Overall ranking^[11]
Audrey Eu	53.9	55.9	62.2	60.5	4	58.1	1
Albert Ho	51.2	55.2	56.7	56.7	4	54.9	2
Emily Lau	50.8	54.3	53.0	55.5	4	53.4	3
Jasper Tsang	50.3	53.1	55.3	52.6	4	52.8	4
Alan Leong	-	56.2	59.3	60.8	3	58.8	5
Regina Ip	55.1	-	59.9	57.9	3	57.6	6
Lee Cheuk-yan	52.4	54.7	-	55.7	3	54.3	7
Tam Yiu-chung	48.7	-	54.4	51.9	3	51.7	8
Wong Yuk-man	-	28.0	33.8	33.6	3	31.8	9
Leung Kwok-hung	-	26.5	31.9	33.8	3	30.8	10
Andrew Cheng	-	54.1	59.5	-	2	56.8	11
Lee Wing-tat	51.6	-	-	-	1	51.6	12
Paul Tse	47.5	-	-	-	1	47.5	13
Lau Wong-fat	42.1	-	-	-	1	42.1	14
Albert Chan	-	33.6	-	-	1	33.6	15

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that four Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 58.1 marks, Albert Ho, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang who ranked the 2nd to 4th and attained 54.9, 53.4 and 52.8 marks correspondingly. Alan Leong, Regina Ip, Lee Cheuk-yan, Tam Yiu-chung, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung have been on the list for three times, attaining 58.8, 57.6, 54.3, 51.7, 31.8 and 30.8 marks on average, and ranked the 5th to 10th. Andrew Cheng has been on the list for two times, attaining 56.8 on average, and ranked the 11th. Lee Wing-tat, Paul Tse, Lau Wong-fat and Albert Chan have been on the list once and ranked the 12th to 15th, with 51.6, 47.5, 42.1 and 33.6 marks correspondingly.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of top 10 Legco members' rating by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 20-31/1/11		18-29 years old	30-49 years old	50 years old or above
Alan Leong^[12]	60.7 +/-1.6 (Base=456)	62.4 +/-3.3 (Base=85)	63.7 +/-2.2 (Base=183)	57.1 +/-2.8 (Base=187)
Audrey Eu^[12]	60.4 +/-1.8 (Base=500)	60.5 +/-4.1 (Base=82)	63.2 +/-2.3 (Base=224)	57.2 +/-3.3 (Base=194)
Regina Ip	57.8 +/-1.6 (Base=462)	60.6 +/-2.7 (Base=95)	56.6 +/-2.7 (Base=182)	57.5 +/-2.5 (Base=186)
Albert Ho	56.7 +/-1.6 (Base=508)	57.8 +/-2.9 (Base=101)	56.7 +/-2.1 (Base=218)	56.1 +/-3.0 (Base=190)
Lee Cheuk-yan	55.8 +/-1.9 (Base=502)	56.6 +/-3.8 (Base=87)	57.2 +/-2.6 (Base=213)	53.9 +/-3.4 (Base=202)
Emily Lau	55.8 +/-1.7 (Base=484)	58.2 +/-3.1 (Base=76)	56.1 +/-2.1 (Base=199)	54.5 +/-3.1 (Base=208)
Jasper Tsang	52.5 +/-1.8 (Base=494)	53.9 +/-3.4 (Base=98)	50.8 +/-2.8 (Base=202)	53.5 +/-2.9 (Base=194)
Tan Yiu-chung	52.0 +/-1.7 (Base=478)	51.6 +/-4.0 (Base=77)	51.3 +/-2.5 (Base=193)	52.8 +/-2.7 (Base=207)
Leung Kwok-hung^[12]	34.1 +/-2.2 (Base=518)	42.7 +/-4.7 (Base=92)	32.8 +/-3.4 (Base=214)	31.6 +/-3.5 (Base=212)
Wong Yuk-man^[12]	33.5 +/-2.3 (Base=513)	42.2 +/-5.3 (Base=84)	32.7 +/-3.3 (Base=227)	30.8 +/-3.7 (Base=202)

[12] Differences among sub-groups tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 14 to 21, 2010 while this survey was conducted from January 20 to 31, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/1/11	The grown-up mainland children of Hong Kong people are allowed the right of abode in Hong Kong.
4/1/11	Hong Kong Government gives up on landfill expansion and suggests to launch a new series of waste management plan.
2/1/11	Szeto Wah has passes away.
29/12/10	Hong Kong people concerns Zhao Lianhai's case.
14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
13/12/10	HK Government provides monthly HK$600 work incentive travel subsidies to 330,000 low-income workers.
10/12/10	An empty chair represents Liu Xiaobo to be honoured by the Nobel Peace Prize.
8/12/10	LegCo releases report on the post-retirement employment of former top housing official Leung Chin-man.
21/11/10	HK government announces new measures to curb short-term property speculation
10/11/10	Minimum wage payment set at $28 per hour.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity of different 'top 10' best known Legislative Councillors has changed in different directions. In terms of familiarity, Andrew Cheng who occupied the third position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by Lee Cheuk-yan. In terms of absolute ratings, only Emily Lau registers a significant increase over two consecutive surveys, by going up 2.5 marks. The ratings of Jasper Tsang, Tam Yiu-chung and Regina Ip have dropped significantly by 2.7, 2.5 and 2.0 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Alan Leong surpasses Audrey Eu to occupy the first place. Regina Ip drops one place to rank third, Albert Ho goes up one place to rank fourth, Lee Cheuk-yan re-enters the list to rank fifth, Emily Lau goes up 2 places to rank sixth, while the relative ranking of all others remaining on the list have changed no more than one place. This shows that recent personnel changes of many political groups have little effect on the ranking of these 'top 10' councillors. Further analysis shows that the 'post 80s' support Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man significantly more than other age groups, while those of age 50 or above support Alan Leong and Audrey Eu significantly less than other age groups. It should be noted however that our list of 'top 10' only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

Future Release (Tentative)

February 15, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials