HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of all"top 5" non-official Executive Councillors have gone up significantly. Among them, Leung Chun-ying, Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Kong-wah reach their record highs since April 2009, while Ronald Arculli and Lau Wong-fat reach their new highs since April 2010. In terms of absolute ratings, only two of our"top 5" non-official Executive Councillors get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, all positions in our"top 5 Councillors" have remained unchanged, namely, Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat in descending order. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.5 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 575 successful interviews, not 575 x 66.4% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,042 successful interviews, not 1,042 x 66.1% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2010.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings[6]
5-7/1/2011 （First stage naming survey）	575	66.4%	+/-4%
11-19/1/2011 （Second stage rating survey）	1,042	66.1%	+/-2.5

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our"Top 5 Executive Councillors" is similar to that of our"Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under"Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	4-9/1/10	7-12/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	5-7/1/11	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,011	1,009	1,010	1,013	575	--
Overall response rate	68.0%	65.3%	64.1%	65.4%	66.4%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	--
Leung Chun-ying	21%{1}	18%{1}	24%{1}	24%{1}	16+/-3%{1}	--
Lau Wong-fat	4%{3}	5%{3}	2%{8}	19%{2}	5+/-2%{2}	--
Ronald Arculli	1%{6}	3%{5}	10%{2}	6%{3}	4+/-2%{3}[8]	--
Lau Kong-wah	2%{4}	2%{6}	3%{7}	6%{4}	4+/-2%{4}[8]	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	11%{2}	7%{2}	5%{4}	4%{5}	4+/-2%{5}[8]	--
Laura M Cha	1%{7}	1%{8}	1%{9}	1%{9}	2+/-1%{6}	+3
Anthony Cheung	2%{5}	4%{4}	5%{3}	2%{6}	1+/-1%{7}[9]	-1
Leong Che-hung	1%{10}	<1%{10}	3%{6}	2%{7}	1+/-1%{8}[9]	-1
Charles Lee	<1%{11}	1%{7}	<1%{11}	<1%{13}	<1+/-1%{9}[10]	+4
Lawrence Lau	1%{8}	1%{9}	1%{10}	1%{10}	<1+/-1%{10}[10]	--
Marjorie Yang	0%{12}	0%{14}	<1%{12}	<1%{14}	<1+/-1%{11}[10]	+3
Anna Wu	1%{9}	<1%{12}	4%{5}	2%{8}	<1+/-1%{12] [10]	-4
Marvin Cheung	0%{12}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	-2
V Nee YEH	0%{12}	<1%{13}	0%{13}	<1%{12}	0%{13}	-1
Wrong answer	19%	16%	25%	21%	19+/-3%	--
Don't know/hard to say	61%	66%	53%	55%	65+/-4%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Ronald Arculli, Lau Kong-wah and Cheng Yiu-tong were 4.0%, 3.7% and 3.6%. Hence Arculli ranked the 3rd, Lau ranked the 4th, while Cheng was place at the 5th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Anthony Cheung and Leong Che-hung were 1.5% and 1.1% respectively. Hence Cheung ranked the 7th, while Leong was placed at the 8th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Charles Lee, Lawrence Lau, Marjorie Yang and Anna Wu were 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1%. Hence Lee ranked the 9th, Lau ranked the 10th, Yang ranked the 11th, while Wu was placed at the 12th rank.

The naming survey conducted in early January showed that Leung Chun-ying was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 16%, followed by Lau Wong-fat, Ronald Arculli, Lau Kong-wah and Cheng Yiu-tong with recognition rate of 5%, 4%, 4% and 4%, and ranked the 2nd to 5th..However, 19% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 65% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in the mid January, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	11-13/1/10	15-25/4/10	19-21/7/10	26-30/10/10	11-19/1/11		Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,020	1,007	1,009	520-549		--
Overall response rate	70.3%	69.8%	66.2%	63.3%	66.1%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [11]	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	56.5 {1}[13]	55.1 {1}[13]	48.8 {1}[13]	49.5 {1}	53.6 {1} +/-1.8	78%	+4.1[13]
Leung Chun-ying	49.2 {2}[13]	48.2 {2}	45.6 {3}[13]	47.5 {2}[13]	51.2 {2} +/-1.9	86%	+3.7[13]
Cheng Yiu-tong	44.9 {4}[13]	45.2 {3}	41.8 {5}[13]	43.9 {3}[13]	49.6 {3} +/-1.8	78%	+5.7[13]
Lau Kong-wah	46.1 {3}[13]	44.8 {4}	--	43.5 {4}	48.6 {4} +/-2.0	78%	+5.1[13]
Lau Wong-fat	43.7 {5}[13]	42.4 {5}	--	33.1 {5}	37.6 {5} +/-1.9	86%	+4.5[13]
Laura M Cha	--	--	--	--	48.6[12]+/-2.5	40%	--
Anthony Cheung	54.1[12][13]	50.6[12][13]	46.7[12][13]	48.4[12][13]	--	--	--
Leong Che-hung	---	--	47.2 {2}	--	--	--	--
Anna Wu	-	--	42.1 {4}	--	--	--	--

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest rating survey conducted in mid January showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 53.6 marks. The 2nd rank went to Leung Chun-ying with 51.2 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat with 49.6, 48.6 and 37.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 48.1 marks. For this latest survey, Laura M Cha obtained a support rating of 48.6 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	15-25/4/10	19-21/7/10	26-30/10/10	11-19/1/11	No.of times on top 5	Average rating[14]	Overall ranking[15]
Ronald Arculli	55.1	48.8	49.5	53.6	4	51.8	1
Leung Chun-ying	48.2	45.6	47.5	51.2	4	48.1	2
Cheng Yiu-tong	45.2	41.8	43.9	49.6	4	45.1	3
Lau Kong-wah	44.8	-	43.5	48.6	3	45.6	4
Lau Wong-fat	42.4	-	33.1	37.6	3	37.7	5
Leong Che-hung	-	47.2	-	-	1	47.2	6
Anna Wu	-	42.1	-	-	1	42.1	7

[14] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[15] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying and Cheng Yiu-tong ranked 1st to 3rd place respectively and achieved an average rating of 51.8, 48.1 and 45.1 marks. Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list for three times with corresponding ratings of 45.6 and 37.7 marks and ranked 4th and 5th place. Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu have been on the list once with corresponding ratings of 47.2 and 42.1 marks and ranked 6th and 7th place.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 26 to 30, 2010 while this survey was conducted from January 11 to 19, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/1/11	Henry Tang persuades Hong Kong youngsters to be more tolerant of different views in the society.
14/1/11	The grown-up mainland children of Hong Kong people are allowed the right of abode in Hong Kong.
7/1/11	Graham Sheffield resigns from WKCDA.
4/1/11	Hong Kong Government gives up on landfill expansion and suggests to launch a new series of waste management plan.
22/12/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang paid a duty visit to Beijing.
14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
13/12/10	HK Government provides monthly HK$600 work incentive travel subsidies to 330,000 low-income workers.
8/12/10	LegCo releases report on the post-retirement employment of former top housing official Leung Chin-man.
21/11/10	HK government announces new measures to curb short-term property speculation
10/11/10	Minimum wage payment set at $28 per hour.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed,"Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of all "'top 5" non-official Executive Councillors have gone up significantly. Among them, Leung Chun-ying, Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Kong-wah reach their record highs since April 2009, while Ronald Arculli and Lau Wong-fat reach their new highs since April 2010. In terms of absolute ratings, only two of our "'top 5" non-official Executive Councillors get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, all positions in our "'top 5 Councillors" have remained unchanged, namely, Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat in descending order. It should be noted, however, that our list of "'top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the "'Opinion Daily" of our POP Site."

• February 1, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SAR Government