HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on January 18, 2011

Abstract

Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,025 Hong Kong people between January 5 and 12 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. This survey conducted before the Legislative Council Finance Committee vetoed the government's bid for the Asian Games shows that after its drop two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has gone back to its level registered one month ago. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have remained stable, while the approval rate of FS John Tsang has significantly dropped by 6 percentage points. The net approval rates of the three Secretaries of Departments are Henry Tang positive 25, John Tsang positive 21 and Wong Yan-lung positive 53 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among 12 Directors have gone down, 4 have gone up. Among them, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 7, 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 12, negative 11 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. Affected by the Leung Chin-man Incident, Denise Yue has dropped to the bottom of the list, with a record low approval rate since she was appointed Secretary for the Civil Service. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of"ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of"successful". Carrie Lam, York Chow, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Stephen Lam, Michael Suen and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as"mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Rita Lau and Denise Yue can be labeled as"inconspicuous". No official falls under the category of"depressing" or"disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,025 successful interviews, not 1,025 x 64.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
5-12/1/2011	1,025	64.9%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-6/11/10	17-27/11/10	6-10/12/10	17-22/12/10	5-12/1/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,001	1,011	1,017	1,025	--
Overall response rate	64.1%	69.7%	65.0%	66.4%	64.9%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	52.7	55.3^[9]	54.4	53.3	54.6+/-1.2	+1.3^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	41%	40%	37%	39%	39+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	47%	42%^[9]	47%^[9]	44%	45+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	-6%	-2%	-10%	-5%	-6%	-1%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	31/8-3/9/10	5-8/10/10	2-6/11/10	6-10/12/10	5-12/1/11	Latest change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	1,010	1,014	1,008	1,011	536-549	--
Overall response rate	65.2%	60.0%	64.1%	65.0%	64.9%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Henry Tang	58.5^[12]	56.2^[12]	54.5^[12]	55.4	55.2+/-1.6	-0.2
Vote of confidence in CS Henry Tang	54%^[12]	49%^[12]	45%^[12]	46%	43+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CS Henry Tang	11%^[12]	17%^[12]	19%	18%	18+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	43%	32%	26%	28%	25%	-3%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	57.6^[12]	56.3^[12]	55.2	55.5	55.2+/-1.7	-0.3
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	52%	50%	51%	49%	43+/-4%	-6%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	16%	17%	19%	16%^[12]	22+/-3%	+6%^[12]
Net approval rate	36%	33%	32%	33%	21%	-12%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	60.7^[12]	60.0	60.0	60.9	60.9+/-1.6	--
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	63%^[12]	61%	61%	62%	59+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	7%	9%	8%	8%	6+/-2%	-2%
Net approval rate	56%	52%	53%	54%	53%	-1%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	2-6/11/10		6-10/12/10		5-12/1/11		Latest change
Total sample size^[13]	1,008		1,011		1,025		--
Overall response rate	64.1%		65.0%		64.9%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	%& error^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	524	71%	563	64%^[15]	543	66+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	524	6%	563	11%^[15]	543	8+/-2%	-3%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	65%	--	53%	--	58%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	528	49%	526	56%^[15]	528	49+/-4%	-7%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	528	18%	526	12%^[15]	528	16+/-3%	+4%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	31%	--	44%	--	33%	-11%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	532	52%^[15]	520	52%	565	48+/-4%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	532	26%^[15]	520	23%	565	24+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	26%	--	29%	--	24%	-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	544	51%	531	49%	565	47+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	544	18%^[15]	531	14%^[15]	565	14+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	33%	--	35%	--	33%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan^[16]	537	32%	577	33%	572	36+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	537	14%^[15]	577	12%	572	12+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	18%	--	21%	--	24%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng^[16]	527	42%	550	41%	540	36+/-4%	-5%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	527	24%	550	22%	540	25+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	--	18%	--	19%	--	11%	-8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	523	34%	510	38%	549	35+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	523	30%^[15]	510	21%^[15]	549	25+/-4%	+4%
Net approval rate	--	4%	--	17%	--	10%	-7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	536	33%	514	29%	578	32+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	536	35%	514	34%	578	30+/-4%	-4%
Net approval rate	--	-2%	--	-5%	--	2%	+7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	543	34%	578	26%^[15]	568	30+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	543	37%	578	43%^[15]	568	42+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	-3%	--	-17%	--	-12%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing^[17]	527	29%	565	28%	554	26+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	527	33%	565	37%	554	37+/-4%	--
Net approval rate	--	-4%	--	-9%	--	-11%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau^[17]	529	29%	525	29%	575	26+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau	529	13%	525	11%	575	14+/-3%	+3%
Net approval rate	--	16%	--	18%	--	12%	-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	544	36%	522	30%^[15]	555	24+/-4%	-6%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	544	10%^[15]	522	23%^[15]	555	25+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	26%	--	7%	--	-1%	-8%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In two decimal places, the approval rate of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan is 36.28%, while that of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng is 36.26%.
[17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing is 26.0%, while that of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau is 25.8%.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.6 marks, and 39% supported him as the Chief Executive, thus his net approval rate is negative 6%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.2, 55.2 and 60.9 marks, and 43%, 43% and 59% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 25%, 21% and 53% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 66%. His net approval rate is positive 58%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, with approval rate 49%, 48% and 47% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 33%, 24% and 33% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue ranked 5th to 12th, as they gained 36%, 36%, 35%, 32%, 30%, 26%, 26% and 24% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 24%, 11%, 10%, 2%, negative 12%, negative 11%, positive 12% and negative 1%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 6 to 10, 2010 while this survey was conducted from January 5 to 12, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/1/11	Graham Sheffield resigns from WKCDA.
4/1/11	Hong Kong Government gives up on landfill expansion and suggests to launch a new series of waste management plan.
2/1/11	Szeto Wah passes away.
29/12/10	Hong Kong people concerns Zhao Lianhai's case.
23/12/10	Bokhary jails for six weeks
22/12/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang paid a duty visit to Beijing.
20/12/10	As snow affects the air traffic in Europe, over a thousand Hong Kong citizens are stranded in UK.
14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
13/12/10	HK Government provides monthly HK$600 work incentive travel subsidies to 330,000 low-income workers.
8/12/10	LegCo releases report on the post-retirement employment of former top housing official Leung Chin-man.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our survey conducted before the Legislative Council Finance Committee vetoed the government's bid for the Asian Games shows that after its drop two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has gone back to its level registered one month ago. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points.

For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have remained stable, while the approval rate of FS John Tsang has significantly dropped by 6 percentage points. The net approval rates of the three Secretaries of Departments are Henry Tang positive 25, John Tsang positive 21 and Wong Yan-lung positive 53 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among 12 Directors have gone down, 4 have gone up. Among them, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 7, 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 12, negative 11 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. Affected by the Leung Chin-man Incident, Denise Yue has dropped to the bottom of the list, with a record low approval rate since she was appointed Secretary for the Civil Service.

According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of"ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of"successful". Carrie Lam, York Chow, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Stephen Lam, Michael Suen and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as"mediocre". Ceajer Chan, Rita Lau and Denise Yue can be labeled as"inconspicuous". No official falls under the category of"depressing" or"disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page.

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (66%^[18]); SJ Wong Yan-lung (59%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (49%); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (48%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (47%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (43%^[19]); CS Henry Tang Ying-yen (43%^[19]); CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (39%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (36%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (35%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung (32%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (30%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (26%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (36%, 48%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan (26%, 40%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (24%, 48%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates

None

[18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee is 65.5%.
[19] In two decimal places, the respective approval rate of FS John Tsang and CS Henry Tang are 43.30% and 43.28%.

Future Release (Tentative)

January 25, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Top 5 Executive Councillors