HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on January 11, 2011

| A Special Note | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |

A Special Note

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on these topics conducted by POP in 2010, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site". This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 17 and 22 December 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that after its big drop three months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has gone up again. Dissatisfaction rate now stands at 41%, with a net popularity of negative 22 percentage points. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with both the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have not changed much, while people's dissatisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. The net popularity of the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison now stand at positive 64 and positive 50 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 66.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all satisfaction and dissatisfaction rates is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF) and the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages ^[6]
17-22/12/2010	1,017	66.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-17/12/09	23-25/3/10	18-22/6/10	18-24/9/10	17-22/12/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,012	1,009	1,010	1,017	--
Overall response rate	70.5%	69.3%	66.7%	66.2%	66.4%	--
Finding /Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error ^[7]	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members^[8]	18%^[9]	18%	19%	21%	19+/-2%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members^[8]	47%^[9]	49%	51%	37%^[9]	41+/-3%	+4%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.5+/-0.1^[9] (Base=945)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=955)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=942)	2.7+/-0.1^[9] (Base=947)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=934)	--
Satisfaction rate of HKPF^[8]	67%^[9]	71%^[9]	69%	74%^[9]	72+/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF^[8]	12%	10%	13%^[9]	6%^[9]	8+/-2%	+2%
Mean value^[8]	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=992)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=990)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=998)	-0.1
Satisfaction rate of PLA^[8]	65%^[9]	56%^[9]	55%	53%	52+/-3%	-1%
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA^[8]	2%	3%	3%	3%	2+/-1%	-1%
Mean value^[8]	4.0+/-0.1 (Base=788)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=737)	4.0+/-0.1 (Base=677)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=726)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=675)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in the second half of December revealed that 19% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 41% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 72% were satisfied while 8% were dissatisfied. Besides, 52% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 2% were dissatisfied. The mean score of the Legco members is 2.7, meaning close to "half-half", while the respective mean scores of the two disciplinary forces are 3.7 and 3.9, meaning close to "satisfied" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 18 to 24, 2010 while this survey was conducted from December 17 to 22, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
13/12/10	HK Government provides monthly HK$600 work incentive travel subsidies to 330,000 low-income workers.
8/12/10	LegCo releases report on the post-retirement employment of former top housing official Leung Chin-man.
10/11/10	Minimum wage payment set at $28 per hour.
18/10/10	The government proposes to tighten privacy laws and to make the unauthorised sale of personal data a criminal offence.
15/10/10	The government will establish new regulation to prevent developers from inflating the floor area of flats.
13/10/10	Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen delivered 2010 annual Policy Address.
11/10/10	No official is filed criminal charge in the investigation report of the hostage case of Hong Kong travel tour in Manila.
2/10/10	Travel Industry Council implements a new system to manage the discipline of travel agents.
20/9/10	Many newspapers report the follow-up of the Manila hostage incident.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that after its big drop three months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has gone up again. Dissatisfaction rate now stands at 41%, with a net popularity of negative 22 percentage points. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is negative 6 percentage points, as published before.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with both the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have not changed much, while people's dissatisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison continues to remain near zero. The net popularity of the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison now stand at positive 64 and positive 50 percentage points respectively. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance."

Future Release (Tentative)

January 18, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and Principal Officials