HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 4, 2011

A Special Note

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2010, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the"Opinion Daily" at the"POP Site". This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 17 and 22 December 2010 before the Christmas holiday by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government has fluctuated within a narrow range over the past couple of months. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 5 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 6 percentage points, more or less like those two months ago. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have decreased while dissatisfaction rates have all increased. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 33 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 16 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 3 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 10 percentage points and improving people's livelihood at negative 33 percentage points coupled with a record high dissatisfaction rate since July 2003 of almost 55%. The government obviously should waste no time to step up its work to improve people's livelihood. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 66.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2010.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-22/12/2010	1,017	66.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	26-30/10/10	2-6/11/10	17-27/11/10	6-10/12/10	17-22/12/10	Latest Change
Sample base	1,009	1,008	1,001	1,011	1,017	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	65.8%	64.4%	65.2%	66.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	53.9^[9]	52.7	55.3^[9]	54.4	53.3+/-1.3	-1.1
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	41%	40%	37%	39+/-3%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	45%^[9]	47%	42%^[9]	47%^[9]	44+/-3%	-3%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	30%^[9]	--	31%	--	29+/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	34%^[9]	--	30%^[9]	--	35+/-3%	+5%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.9^[9]+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	--	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=989)	--	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,010)	-0.2^[9]

[7]All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9]Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 53.3 marks, and 39% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 29% were satisfied, whereas 35% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to"half-half" in general.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	14-17/12/2009	23-25/3/2010	18-22/6/2010	18-24/9/2010	17-22/12/10	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base	1,000	1,012	1,009	1,010	1,017	--
Overall response rate	70.5%	69.3%	66.7%	66.2%	66.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	60%^[12]	50%^[12]	49%	57%^[12]	52+/-3%	-5%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	14%^[12]	22%^[12]	28%^[12]	13%^[12]	19+/-2%	+6%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=954)	3.3+/-0.1^[12] (Base=954)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=930)	3.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=957)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=935)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	45%	42%	38%^[12]	49%^[12]	43+/-3%	-6%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	28%	34%^[12]	41%^[12]	24%^[12]	27+/-3%	+3%
Mean value^[11]	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=970)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base=987)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=971)	3.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=992)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=982)	-0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	37%	35%	40%^[12]	37%	36+/-3%	-1%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	33%^[12]	34%	37%	29%^[12]	33+/-3%	+4%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=990)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=1,000)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=996)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=995)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	-0.1
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	32%^[12]	29%	32%	34%	30+/-3%	-4%^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	42%	43%	45%	33%^[12]	40+/-3%	+7%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=957)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=963)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=951)	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=979)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=954)	-0.1
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	24%^[12]	23%	26%	23%	21+/-3%	-2%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	47%^[12]	49%	53%^[12]	44%^[12]	54+/-3%	+10% ^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.6+/-0.1^[12] (Base=986)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,004)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=992)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=996)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=1,002)	-0.2^[12]

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 52%. The government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 43%. Finally, a respective of 36%, 30% and 21% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.4, 3.1, 2.9, 2.8 and 2.5 respectively, meaning close to"half-half" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 18 to 24, 2010 while this survey was conducted from December 17 to 22, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/12/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang paid a duty visit to Beijing.
20/12/10	As snow affects the air traffic in Europe, over a thousand Hong Kong citizens are stranded in UK.
14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
13/12/10	HK Government provides monthly HK$600 work incentive travel subsidies to 330,000 low-income workers.
10/12/10	An empty chair represents Liu Xiaobo to be honoured by the Nobel Peace Prize.
8/12/10	LegCo releases report on the post-retirement employment of former top housing official Leung Chin-man.
21/11/10	HK government announces new measures to curb short-term property speculation
10/11/10	Minimum wage payment set at $28 per hour.
13/10/10	Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen delivered 2010 annual Policy Address.
11/10/10	No official is filed criminal charge in the investigation report of the hostage case of Hong Kong travel tour in Manila.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed,"Our latest survey conducted before the Christmas holiday shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government has fluctuated within a narrow range over the past couple of months. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 5 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 6 percentage points, more or less like those two months ago. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have decreased while dissatisfaction rates have all increased. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 33 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 16 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 3 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 10 percentage points and improving people's livelihood at negative 33 percentage points coupled with a record high dissatisfaction rate since July 2003 of almost 55%. The government obviously should waste no time to step up its work to improve people's livelihood. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

January 11, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legislative Councillors, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison