HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures of the 2010 year-end and 2011 forecast surveyBack

Press Release on December 30, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 17 and 22 December 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our annual survey shows that compared to a year ago, the percentages of those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past, and those who lived a happy life in the year past have remained more or less the same as those figures registered this time last year. However, those who expect Hong Kong's development in general to get better in the year ahead, and those who expect their personal development would become better in the year ahead have plummeted 16 and 9 percentage points. The figures are still positive, meaning that people are still optimistic, but they have become more cautious. If people have to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for fairness, then bribery-free, then prosperity. The last item scores just over 20%, and is at record low since this survey series started in 1993. Likewise, the percentage of those who consider economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year has also dropped 14 percentage points compared to a year ago, down to 27% which is a new low since 1996, probably due to economic recovery. As for people's new year wishes, without explicit prompting, more than 40% made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, while more than one-third made a wish on personal matters, especially for health. This is a good sign of social awareness for the Hong Kong people. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 66.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of the 2010 review and 2011 forecast survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-22/12/2010	1,017	66.4%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Herewith the figures collected at the year-end of 2010 compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	19-24/12/07	16-18/12/08	14-17/12/09	17-22/12/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,019	1,005	1,000	1,017	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	71.7%	70.5%	66.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Satisfied with HK's development for the year past^[8]	64%^[10]	29%^[10]	42%^[10]	44+/-3%	+2%
Dissatisfied with HK's development for the year past^[8]	10%	38%^[10]	24%^[10]	23+/-3%	-1%
Mean value^[8]	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=994)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=956)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=967)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=982)	--
Expected HK's development to be better next year	57%	15%^[10]	62%^[10]	46+/-3%	-16%^[10]
Expected HK's development to be worse next year	12%^[10]	64%^[10]	12%^[10]	20+/-3%	+8%^[10]
Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	36%	67%^[10]	41%^[10]	27+/-3%	-14%^[10]
Perceived housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	--	1%	5%^[10]	19+/-2%	+14%^[10]
Perceived welfare to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	13%^[10]	4%^[10]	6%	14+/-2%	+8%^[10]
Perceived inflation to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	2%	1%	1%	7+/-2%	+6%^[10]
Wished HK becomes a fair society	21%^[10]	20%	21%	27+/-3%	+6%^[10]
Wished HK becomes a corruption-free society^[9]	22%	23%	25%	23+/-3%	-2%
Wished HK becomes a prosperous society	31%^[10]	36%^[10]	28%^[10]	22+/-3%	-6%^[10]
Respondents who were happy for the year past^[8]	57%	52%^[10]	55%	56+/-3%	+1%
Respondents who were unhappy for the year past^[8]	10%	17%^[10]	14%^[10]	13+/-2%	-1%
Mean value^[8]	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=1,009)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=999)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=997)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=1,011)	--
Expected personal development to become better next year	46%	27%^[10]	55%^[10]	46+/-3%	-9%^[10]
Expected personal development to become worse next year	11%^[10]	31%^[10]	10%^[10]	12+/-2%	+2%
New year wishes: Social economy-related	24%	36%^[10]	25%^[10]	19+/-2%	-6%^[10]
New year wishes: Personal health	15%^[10]	13%	16%^[10]	18+/-2%	+2%
New year wishes: Social livelihood-related	8%	7%	13%^[10]	14+/-2%	+1%
New year wishes: Personal career or studies	12%	10%	8%	9+/-2%	+1%
No special wish	11%	10%	11%	12+/-2%	+1%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] The expression "clean society" was used in 2006 and before. In 2007, it was changed to "corruption-free society" to highlight the original meaning of the question.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Looking back at the year past, 44% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development, 23% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 3.2, meaning close to "half-half" in general. Meanwhile, 46% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 20% said it would be worse. Besides, 27% considered "economy" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 19% and 14% respectively thought "housing" and "welfare" was the most pressing problem, while 7% thought "inflation" should be tackled. If one had to choose between a "prosperous", "corruption-free", "fair", "free", and "welfare" society, 27% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a "fair" society, while 23% and 22% opted for a "corruption-free" and "prosperous" society respectively.

Findings also showed that 56% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 13% were not. The mean score is 3.5, meaning close to "half-half" in general. As for the coming year, 46% believed their personal development would become better, 12% thought they would worse off. With respect to people's new year wishes, 19% were social economy-related, 18% were related to personal health, 14% were related to social livelihood and 9% were related to personal career or studies. 12% did not make any wish.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This release is an exception, because the surveys invovled were one year apart, and any of the significant events listed in our "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this release has not highlighted any event from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records listed in our webpage.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our annual survey shows that compared to a year ago, the percentages of those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past, and those who lived a happy life in the year past have remained more or less the same as those figures registered this time last year. However, those who expect Hong Kong's development in general to get better in the year ahead, and those who expect their personal development would become better in the year ahead have plummeted 16 and 9 percentage points. The figures are still positive, meaning that people are still optimistic, but they have become more cautious. If people have to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for fairness, then bribery-free, then prosperity. The last item scores just over 20%, and is at record low since this survey series started in 1993. Likewise, the percentage of those who consider economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year has also dropped 14 percentage points compared to a year ago, down to 27% which is a new low since 1996, probably due to economic recovery. As for people's new year wishes, without explicit prompting, more than 40% made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, while more than one-third made a wish on personal matters, especially for health. This is a good sign of social awareness for the Hong Kong people."

Future Release (Tentative)

January 4, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SAR Government