HKU POP SITE releases the latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on December 28, 2010

| A Special Note | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

A Special Note

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2010, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site". This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

HKUPOP interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong people between 13 and 16 December, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR government has receded to the 45% level, after its big jump three months ago. People's distrust in the Beijing Central government has increased significantly by 10 percentage points to above 30%. Both changes together means that people's net trust in the HKSAR and Central governments have both dropped 15 percentage points, down to positive 22 and 5 percentage points. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 28 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, positive figures in the future of Hong Kong and China have dropped significantly, with net confidence standing at positive 32 and 62 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in "one country, two systems" has not changed much, with net confidence standing at positive 29 percentage points. Recent events that might have affected the ups and downs of these figures include Hong Kong's bid for the Asian Games, the incidents of Leung Chin-man, Liu Xiaobo, Zhao Lianhai, and the demonstration of violence in recent elections in Taiwan. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 67.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
13-16/12/2010	1,013	67.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	28-30/12/09	1-3/3/10	9-13/6/10	7-11/9/10	13-16/12/10	Latest Change
Sample base	1,028	1,005	1,004	1,011	1,013	--
Overall response rate	66.5%	64.2%	68.2%	65.3%	67.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[8]	48%	46%	41%^[9]	53%^[9]	44+/-3%	-9%^[9]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[8]	20%^[9]	26%^[9]	31%^[9]	16%^[9]	22+/-3%	+6%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	3.3+/-0.1^[9] (Base=1,016)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=995)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=989)	3.4+/-0.1^[9] (Base=994)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=996)	-0.2^[9]
Trust in Beijing Government^[8]	49%	48%	42%^[9]	42%	37+/-3%	-5%^[9]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[8]	21%	29%^[9]	32%	22%^[9]	32+/-3%	+10%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=993)	3.2+/-0.1^[9] (Base=975)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=975)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=965)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=974)	-0.2^[9]
Trust in Taiwan Government^[8]	14%^[9]	16%	18%	13%^[9]	14+/-2%	+1%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[8]	41%	49%^[9]	43%^[9]	35%^[9]	42+/-3%	+7%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.5+/-0.1^[9] (Base=806)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=838)	2.6+/-0.1^[9] (Base=813)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=763)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=831)	-0.1
Confidence in HK's future	68%	68%	60%^[9]	69%^[9]	62+/-3%	-7%^[9]
No-confidence in HK's future	26%	27%	35%^[9]	23%^[9]	30+/-3%	+7%^[9]
Confidence in China's future	86%	86%	83%^[9]	81%	77+/-3%	-4%^[9]
No-confidence in China's future	9%	10%	13%^[9]	13%	15+/-2%	+2%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	66%	64%	57%^[9]	62%^[9]	61+/-3%	-1%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	28%	31%	39%^[9]	29%^[9]	32+/-3%	+3%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 44% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 37% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 14% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these indicators are 3.2, 3.0 and 2.5 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 62% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 77% had confidence in China's future, while 61% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 7 to 11, 2010 while this survey was conducted from December 13 to 16, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
10/12/10	An empty chair represents Liu Xiaobo to be honoured by the Nobel Peace Prize.
8/12/10	LegCo releases report on the post-retirement employment of former top housing official Leung Chin-man.
27/11/10	The municipal elections is held in Taiwan.
26/11/10	Lien Sheng-wen was shot in the head during a campaign rally for the Taiwan municipal elections.
19/11/10	HK government announces new measures to curb short-term property speculation.
13/11/10	Hu Jintao and Donald Tsang meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Leaders Meeting in Yokohama.
12/11/10	Asian Games opened in Guangzhou.
10/11/10	Minimum wage payment set at $28 per hour.
23/10/10	Some Hong Kong youngsters expressed their concern towards the soaring prices in property market.
15/10/10	The government will establish new regulation to prevent developers from inflating the floor area of flats.
13/10/10	Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen delivered 2010 annual Policy Address.
8/1010	Beijing human rights activist Liu Xiaobo wins Nobel Peace Prize.
6/10/10	Government launches second stage public consultation on healthcare reform.
22/9/10	Sino-Japanese relations is deteriorated due to the territorial dispute over Diaoyu Islands.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR government has receded to the 45% level, after its big jump three months ago. People's distrust in the Beijing Central government has increased significantly by 10 percentage points to above 30%. Both changes together means that people's net trust in the HKSAR and Central governments have both dropped 15 percentage points, down to positive 22 and 5 percentage points. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 28 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, positive figures in the future of Hong Kong and China have dropped significantly, with net confidence standing at positive 32 and 62 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in 'one country, two systems' has not changed much, with net confidence standing at positive 29 percentage points. Recent events that might have affected the ups and downs of these figures include Hong Kong's bid for the Asian Games, the incidents of Leung Chin-man, Liu Xiaobo, Zhao Lianhai, and the demonstration of violence in recent elections in Taiwan. As for the other reasons, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Releases (Tentative)

December 30, 2010 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: 2010 year-end and 2011 forecast survey
January 4, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government