HKU POP SITE releases people's appraisal of society's conditionsBack

Press Release on December 23, 2010

A Special Note

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2010, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site". This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong people from December 13 to 16, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people's concern over economic issues has rebounded significantly after an 18-month drop, both in terms of absolute ratings and relative percentages. In terms of relative percentages, people are still most concerned with social problems, followed by economic and then political problems. The percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has significantly increased by 5 percentage points, but is still lower than the figure registered a year ago, while that of political problems has dropped by 3 percentage points to a record low since mid 2009. In terms of absolute ratings, the concern rating of social problems is now at record high since our rating survey began in 2005, while that of economic problems rebounded to a new high since the end of 2008. As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction of the current social, economic and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 1, negative 6 and negative 14 percentage points. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 67.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
13-16/12/2010	1,013	67.4%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-29/12/08	23-26/6/09	28-30/12/09	18-22/6/10^[7]	13-16/12/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,022	1,008	1,028	1,009	1,013	--
Overall response rate	72.8%	70.0%	66.5%	66.7%	67.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Most concerned with social problems	31%^[10]	42%^[10]	42%	54%^[10]	52+/-3%	-2%
Most concerned with economic problems	63%^[10]	52%^[10]	44%^[10]	31%^[10]	36+/-3%	+5%^[10]
Most concerned with political problems	5%	4%	12%^[10]	12%	9+/-2%	-3%^[10]
Rating on concern for social problems	7.30^[10]	7.28	7.24	7.38^[10]	7.48+/-0.12	+0.10
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.52^[10]	7.24^[10]	7.19	7.05^[10]	7.25+/-0.12	+0.20^[10]
Rating on concern for political problems	5.73^[10]	5.56^[10]	5.62	5.90^[10]	5.86+/-0.14	-0.04
Current social condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	35%^[10]	33%	37%^[10]	28%^[10]	36+/-3%	+8%^[10]
Current social condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	31%^[10]	33%	33%	49%^[10]	37+/-3%	-12%^[10]
Mean value[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=1,008)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=1,018)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=995)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=996)	+0.2^[10]
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	22%^[10]	22%	35%^[10]	41%^[10]	33+/-3%	-8%^[10]
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	47%^[10]	37%^[10]	36%	35%	39+/-3%	+4%^[10]
Mean value[9]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,010)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,002)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,018)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=994)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	-0.2^[10]
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	29%	22%^[10]	22%	26%^[10]	29+/-3%	+3%
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	36%	38%	48%^[10]	49%	43+/-3%	-6%^[10]
Mean value[9]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=926)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=964)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=950)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=959)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=937)	+0.1

[7] The wordings used for the June 2010 survey were "livelihood problems" and "livelihood condition". We take them to mean the same as "social problems" and "social condition" in the survey context.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The survey conducted in the mid December showed that 52% of the respondents were most concerned with social problems, 36% with economic problems, while 9% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over social, economic and political problems were 7.48, 7.25 and 5.86 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current social, economic and political conditions were 36%, 33% and 29% respectively. The mean score of the social, economic and political conditions are 2.9, 2.8 and 2.7, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 18 to 22, 2010 while this survey was conducted from December 13 to 16, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/12/10	HK Government is going to bid for 2023 Asian Games.
21/11/10	HK government announces new measures to curb short-term property speculation
10/11/10	Minimum wage payment set at $28 per hour.
15/10/10	The government will establish new regulation to prevent developers from inflating the floor area of flats.
13/10/10	Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen delivered 2010 annual Policy Address.
6/10/10	Government launches second stage public consultation on healthcare reform.
2/10/10	Travel Industry Council implements a new system to manage the discipline of travel agents.
21/9/10	HKSAR government consults public about the application of hosting Asian Games and Asian Para Games 2023.
23/8/10	One Hong Kong travel tour was hostaged in Manila, ended up with eight tourists dead and seven injured.
20/8/10	Hong Kong government consults public about the three proposals of West Kowloon Cultural District.
3/8/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the result announcement of the last HKCEE.
26/7/10	Octopus Holdings Limited is suspected to sell users' personal data.
16/7/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss Hong Kong tourism scandal and its problem on regulation.
13/7/10	Chief Executive claims to put emphasis on improving citizens' livelihood in his policy.
6/7/10	Hong Kong government consults public about the supply of columbarium.
1/7/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the July 1 demonstration and also the public criticism to the Democratic party.
25/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Legislative Council election proposal.
24/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Chief Executive selection proposal.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our latest half-yearly survey, people's concern over economic issues has rebounded significantly after an 18-month drop, both in terms of absolute ratings and relative percentages. In terms of relative percentages, people are still most concerned with social problems, followed by economic and then political problems. The percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has significantly increased by 5 percentage points, but is still lower than the figure registered a year ago, while that of political problems has dropped by 3 percentage points to a record low since mid 2009. In terms of absolute ratings, the concern rating of social problems is now at record high since our rating survey began in 2005, while that of economic problems rebounded to a new high since the end of 2008. As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction of the current social, economic and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 1, negative 6 and negative 14 percentage points. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page."

Future Releases (Tentative)

December 28, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Six trust and confidence indicators
December 30, 2010 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: 2010 year-end and 2011 forecast survey