HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
| Press Release on December 14, 2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between December 6 and 10 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that after its big jump two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has dropped back a bit by 0.9 marks to 54.4, while his disapproval rate goes up significantly by 5 percentage points to reach 47%. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 10 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have remained stable, all changes in their support ratings and approval rates are within sampling errors. The net approval rates of the three Secretaries of Departments are Henry Tang positive 28, John Tsang positive 33 and Wong Yan-lung positive 54 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone down, 3 have gone up and 2 remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, up by 7 and down by 8, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 17, negative 9 and negative 5 percentage points respectively. Affected by the DSS (Direct Subsidy Scheme) Schools Incident, Michael Suen has dropped to the bottom of the list, with a record low approval rate since he was appointed Secretary for Education. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful". Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Donald Tsang, Denise Yue, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre". Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the category of "depressing" or "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note: [1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 65.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
[9] These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 581 and 563 respectively. [10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affair Stephen Lam is 29.1%, while that of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau is 28.8%. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.4 marks, and 37% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.4, 55.5 and 60.9 marks, and 46%, 49% and 62% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 64%. The 2nd to 5th places belonged to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, with approval rate 56%, 52%, 49% and 41% respectively. Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 6th to 12th, as they gained 38%, 33%, 30%, 29%, 29%, 28% and 26% support from the public respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Carrie Lam and York Chow scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from November 2 to 6, 2010 while this survey was conducted from December 6 to 10, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey shows that after its big jump two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has dropped back a bit by 0.9 marks to 54.4, while his disapproval rate goes up significantly by 5 percentage points to reach 47%. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 10 percentage points. For the Secretaries of Departments, compared to one month ago, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have remained stable, all changes in their support ratings and approval rates are within sampling errors. The net approval rates of the three Secretaries of Departments are Henry Tang positive 28, John Tsang positive 33 and Wong Yan-lung positive 54 percentage points respectively. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone down, 3 have gone up and 2 remained unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue have registered change in approval rates beyond sampling error, up by 7 and down by 8, 7 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among the Directors of Bureaux, those with negative popularity include Secretary for Education Michael Suen, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam. Their net popularity figures now stand at negative 17, negative 9 and negative 5 percentage points respectively. Affected by the DSS (Direct Subsidy Scheme) Schools Incident, Michael Suen has dropped to the bottom of the list, with a record low approval rate since he was appointed Secretary for Education. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful". Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Donald Tsang, Denise Yue, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre". Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the category of "depressing" or "disastrous". As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
