HKU POP SITE releases rankings of political figuresBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between November 8 and 12 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that Donald Tsang continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, while Henry Tang and Wong Yuk-man move up 2 and down 1 positions respectively to rank 2nd and 3rd, support rates aside. Compared to 6 months ago, 8 people continue to remain on the 'top 10' list. Anson Chan and Alan Leong who ranked 9th and 10th last time have fallen out of the list after dropping 3 and 5 places respectively to take the 12th and 15th places. They are replaced by Lee Cheuk-yan and Jasper Tsang who have risen 6 and 2 places respectively from the 14th and 11th places to become the 8th and the 9th. Among the 8 political figures who remain on the 'top 10' list, two have their relative rankings changed beyond plus or minus 2 positions. They are Emily Lau and Audrey Eu, the former jumps 3 places to occupy the 5th place while the latter drops 5 places to take the 10th place. Such ups and downs are good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to study long term development, then using overall rankings accumulated over five years would be more appropriate. Figures show that Donald Tsang, Martin Lee, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung and Audrey Eu are people's most familiar political figures in the long run. The maximum sampling errors of the maximum sampling error of percentages of people's most familiar political figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey on people's most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,003 successful cases, not 1,003 x 67.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the survey results of people's most familiar political figures. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2010.

Herewith the contact information of survey on people's most familiar political figures:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages[5]
8-12/11/10	1,003	67.1%	+/-3%

[5] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

This survey on people's most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years, with results initially released through our publication POP Express until October 2006 when we began to release them online. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of "top 10 political figures" using our usual "top 10" or "top 5" series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our "top 10 political figures" survey by just recording and analyzing the "naming" results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. As for the rating part, we only conduct supplementary rating surveys to cover those listed in the top 10 political figures but not covered in other rating surveys. Take our latest survey as an example, our supplementary rating survey of Martin Lee and Szeto Wah will be conducted later this month, and the results will be uploaded onto our POP Site as soon as they are ready. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other "top 10" rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for "people's most familiar political figures", as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on "people's most familiar political figures", other rankings beyond the "Top 10" can be found in the POP Site:

Date of survey	19-22/5/09		19-23/11/09		18-20/5/10		8-12/11/2010		Average ranking over the past 10 surveys[11]
Sample base	1,011		1,001		1,015		1,003		--
Overall response rate	68.3%		76.7%		72.5%		67.1%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)[6]	+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		--
Latest finding/Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	--
Donald Tsang	44%	1	41%	1	46%	1	56%	1	1.2
Henry Tang	26%	6	35%	2	33%	4	34%	2	5.2
Wong Yuk-man	29%[7]	3	22%[8]	6	37%	2	25%	3	26.3
Leung Kwok-hung	29%[7]	2	22%[8]	7	34%	3	24%	4	6.6
Emily Lau	27%	4	19%	10	24%	8	23%	5	9.2
Martin Lee	19%	10	33%	3	28%[9]	6	22%	6	4.6
Szeto Wah	--	--	--	--	28%[9]	7	21%	7	13.4
Lee Cheuk-yan	--	--	--	--	--	--	18%	8	12.5
Jasper Tsang	--	--	--	--	--	--	17%[10]	9	10.6
Audrey Eu	21%	9	21%	8	30%	5	17%[10]	10	7.8

[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[7] The percentages of respondents who could name Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man were 28.8% and 28.6% respectively. Hence Leung ranked the 2nd while Wong was placed at 3rd rank.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung were 22.4% and 21.7% respectively. Hence Wong ranked the 6th while Leung was placed at 7th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Martin Lee and Szeto Wah were 27.9% and 27.8% respectively. Hence Lee ranked the 6th while Szeto was placed at 7th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Jasper Tsang and Audrey Eu were 17.3% and 17.1% respectively. Hence Tsang ranked the 9th while Eu was placed at 10th rank.
[11] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted on April 18-21, 2006. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

In our naming survey conducted in the first half of November, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Wong Yuk-man were the top three. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 56%, 34% and 25%. Leung Kwok-hung and Emily Lau occupied the 4th and 5th places with corresponding recognition rates of 24% and 23%. The 6th to 10th ranks fell to Martin Lee, Szeto Wah, Lee Cheuk-yan, Jasper Tsang and Audrey Eu respectively. Their corresponding recognition rates were 22%, 21%, 18%, 17% and 17%. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997.

Herewith some of the results of our "people's most familiar political figures" surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

20-21/10/05──18-20/5/10[12]							18-21/4/06──8-12/11/10[12]
Overall rank	Pol. figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys		Overall rank	Pol. figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys	Overall rank	Pol. figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys		Overall rank	Pol. figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys
1	Donald Tsang	1.2		11	Lee Cheuk-yan	13.0	1	Donald Tsang	1.2		11	James Tien	12.8
2	Martin Lee	4.2		12	Szeto Wah	14.3	2	Martin Lee	4.6		12	Szeto Wah	13.4
3	Henry Tang	5.3		13	Selina Chow	16.3	3	Henry Tang	5.2		13	Regina Ip	14.7
4	Leung Kwok-hung	6.8		14	Alan Leong	17.0	4	Leung Kwok-hung	6.6		14	Alan Leong	15.4
5	Audrey Eu	8.6		15	Regina Ip	17.0	5	Audrey Eu	7.8		14	Selina Chow	19.0
5	Anson Chan	8.9		16	Lee Wing-tat	20.3	6	Anson Chan	8.4		16	Albert Ho	19.2
7	Emily Lau	9.2		17	Tam Yiu-chung	20.8	7	Emily Lau	9.2		17	Tam Yiu-chung	20.1
8	Jasper Tsang	11.0		18	Wong Yan-lung	22.0	8	Jasper Tsang	10.6		18	Wong Yan-lung	21.1
9	Rita Fan	11.1		19	Tung Chee-hwa	22.3	9	Rita Fan	11.7		19	Lee Wing-tat	21.8
10	James Tien	11.7		20	Albert Ho	22.4	10	Lee Cheuk-yan	12.5		20	Tung Chee-hwa	23.2

[12] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Donald Tsang has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 1.2. Martin Lee has the 2nd highest overall rank with an average ranking of 4.6. The overall ranks of Henry Tang and Leung Kwok-hung come 3rd and 4th respectively, with average rankings of 5.2 and 6.6. The overall ranks of Audrey Eu and Anson Chan come 5th and 6th with an average ranking of 7.8 and 8.4 respectively. The 7th to 10th overall ranks go to Emily Lau, Jasper Tsang, Rita Fan and Lee Cheuk-yan, with corresponding average rankings of 9.2, 10.6, 11.7 and 12.5.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 18 to 20, 2010 while this survey was conducted from November 8 to 12, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

12/11/10	Asian Games opened in Guangzhou.
10/11/10	Minimum wage payment set at $28 per hour.
18/10/10	The government proposes to tighten privacy laws and to make the unauthorised sale of personal data a criminal offence.
15/10/10	The government will establish new regulation to prevent developers from inflating the floor area of flats.
13/10/10	Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen delivered 2010 annual Policy Address.
8/1010	Beijing human rights activist Liu Xiaobo wins Nobel Peace Prize.
6/10/10	Government launches second stage public consultation on healthcare reform.
2/10/10	Travel Industry Council implements a new system to manage the discipline of travel agents.
21/9/10	HKSAR government consults public about the application of hosting Asian Games and Asian Para Games 2023.
29/8/10	People marched in silence to mourn the eight Hong Kong people who were killed in the Manila hostage incident.
20/8/10	Hong Kong government consults public about the three proposals of West Kowloon Cultural District.
17/7/10	Legislative Council passes minimum wage bill.
15/7/10	Government announces to increase public housing rent.
25/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Legislative Council election proposal.
24/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Chief Executive selection proposal.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people's familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Donald Tsang continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, while Henry Tang and Wong Yuk-man move up 2 and down 1 positions respectively to rank 2nd and 3rd, support rates aside. Compared to 6 months ago, 8 people continue to remain on the 'top 10' list. Anson Chan and Alan Leong who ranked 9th and 10th last time have fallen out of the list after dropping 3 and 5 places respectively to take the 12th and 15th places. They are replaced by Lee Cheuk-yan and Jasper Tsang who have risen 6 and 2 places respectively from the 14th and 11th places to become the 8th and the 9th. Among the 8 political figures who remain on the 'top 10' list, two have their relative rankings changed beyond plus or minus 2 positions. They are Emily Lau and Audrey Eu, the former jumps 3 places to occupy the 5th place while the latter drops 5 places to take the 10th place. Such ups and downs are good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to study long term development, then using overall rankings accumulated over five years would be more appropriate. Figures show that Donald Tsang, Martin Lee, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung and Audrey Eu are people's most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of 'people's most familiar political figures' is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower down may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these rankings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• November 30, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SAR Government