HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, HKSAR Government and Executive CouncilorsBack

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that the popularity figures of both CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government have dropped, after many rounds of Policy Address discussions, close to the level registered before the Manila hostage incident two months ago. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points, while the SARG's net satisfaction rate stands at negative 4 percentage points. As for the popularity of Executive Councillors, compared to three months ago, our list of "top five non-official Executive Councillors" has changed a lot. In terms of familiarity, Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu who were both new to the list and occupied the second and fourth positions last time have dropped out of the list, replaced by Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat. In terms of absolute ratings, those of the three councillors who remain on the list have all gone up. Among them, those of Cheng Yiu-tong and Leung Chun-ying have changed beyond sampling errors, up by 2.1 and 1.9 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli remains on the top, Leung Chun-ying goes up one position to become second, Cheng Yiu-tong goes up two positions to become the third. Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat re-enter the list to occupy the fourth and fifth positions respectively, but Lau Wong-fat's rating is his historical low in this series, no doubt due to the controversy over his declaration of interests. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-1.6 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 63%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 65.4% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey and of the survey on popularity of CE Donald Tsang and HKSAR government is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 63.3% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2010.

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey of popularity of CE and SAR Government:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]
26-30/10/2010	1,009	63.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	31/8-3/9/10	18-24/9/10	5-8/10/10	13/10/10[9]	26-30/10/10	Latest Change
Sample base	1,010	1,010	1,014	1,020	1,009	--
Overall response rate	65.2%	66.2%	60.0%	66.9%	63.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	58.5[10]	57.9	55.4[10]	56.2	53.9+/-1.2	-2.3[10]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	47%[10]	44%	42%	41%	39+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	37%[10]	39%	43%[10]	41%	45+/-3%	+4%[10]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]	--	37%[10]	--	--	30+/-3%	-7%[10]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]	--	26%[10]	--	--	34+/-3%	+8%[10]
Mean value[8]	--	3.1[10]+/-0.1 (Base=1,006)	--	--	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	-0.2[10]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 581 and 563 respectively.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 53.9 marks, and 39% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 30% were satisfied, whereas 34% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.9, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey of top 5 Executive Councillors:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings[11]
14-21/10/2010 （First stage naming survey）	1,013	65.4%	+/-3%
26-30/10/2010 （Second stage rating survey）	1,009	63.3%	+/-1.6

[11] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councillors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	15-19/10/09	4-9/1/10	7-12/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,002	1,011	1,009	1,010	1,013	--
Overall response rate	69.9%	68.0%	65.3%	64.1%	65.4%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[12]	--
Leung Chun-ying	25% {1}	21% {1}	18% {1}	24% {1}	24+/-3% {1}	--
Lau Wong-fat	5% {2}	4% {3}	5% {3}	2% {8}	19+/-2% {2}	+6
Ronald Arculli	3% {5}	1% {6}	3% {5}	10% {2}	6+/-1% {3}[13]	-1
Lau Kong-wah	3% {4}	2% {4}	2% {6}	3% {7}	6+/-1% {4}[13]	+3
Cheng Yiu-tong	5% {3}	11% {2}	7% {2}	5% {4}	4+/-1% {5}	-1
Anthony Cheung	2% {6}	2% {5}	4% {4}	5% {3}	2+/-1% {6}[14]	-3
Leong Che-hung	<1% {11}	1% {10}	<1% {10}	3% {6}	2+/-1% {7}[14]	-1
Anna Wu	<1% {10}	1% {9}	<1% {12}	4% {5}	2+/-1% {8}[14]	-3
Laura M Cha	1% {7}	1% {7}	1% {8}	1% {9}	1+/-1% {9}[15]	--
Lawrence Lau	1% {8}	1% {8}	1% {9}	1% {10}	1+/-1% {10}[15]	--
Marvin Cheung	<1% {13}	0% {12}	<1% {11}	0% {13}	<1+/-1% {11}[16]	+2
V Nee YEH	<1% {9}	0% {12}	<1% {13}	0% {13}	<1+/-1% {12}[16]	+1
Charles Lee	0% {14}	<1% {11}	1% {7}	<1% {11}	<1+/-1% {13}[16]	-2
Marjorie Yang	<1% {12}	0% {12}	0% {14}	<1% {12}	<1+/-1% {14}[16]	-2
Wrong answer	23%	19%	16%	25%	21+/-3%	--
Don't know/hard to say	55%	61%	66%	53%	55+/-3%	--

[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site.
[13] The percentages of respondents who could name Ronald Arculli and Lau Kong-wah were 6.4% and 6.2%. Hence Arculli ranked the 3rd while Lau was placed at 4th rank.
[14] The percentages of respondents who could name Anthony Cheung, Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu were 2.3%, 2.1% and 1.5% respectively. Hence Cheung ranked the 6th, while Leong and Wu were placed at 7th and 8th rank respectively.
[15] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura M Cha and Lawrence Lau were 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. Hence Cha ranked the 9th while Lau was placed at 10th rank.
[16] The percentages of respondents who could name Marvin Cheung, V Nee Yeh, Charles Lee and Marjorie Yang were 0.42%, 0.38%, 0.36% and 0.08% respectively. Hence Cheung ranked the 11th while Yeh, Lee and Yang were placed at 12th and 13th and 14th rank respectively.

The naming survey conducted in mid-October showed that Leung Chun-ying was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 24%, followed by Lau Wong-fat with a recognition rate of 19%. Ronald Arculli, Lau Kong-wah and Cheng Yiu-tong ranked the 3rd to 5th and the corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 6%, 6% and 4%. However, 21% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 55% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in the second half of October, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	20-30/10/09	11-13/1/10	15-25/4/10	19-21/7/10	26-30/10/10		Latest change
Sample base	1,005	1,008	1,020	1,007	1,009		--
Overall response rate	73.1%	70.3%	69.8%	66.2%	63.3%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [17]	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	50.9 {1}	56.5 {1}[19]	55.1 {1}[19]	48.8 {1}[19]	49.5 {1} +/-1.3	80%	+0.7
Leung Chun-ying	44.7 {2}[19]	49.2 {2}[19]	48.2 {2}	45.6 {3}[19]	47.5 {2} +/-1.4	83%	+1.9[19]
Cheng Yiu-tong	41.9 {3}	44.9 {4}[19]	45.2 {3}	41.8 {5}[19]	43.9 {3} +/-1.5	78%	+2.1[19]
Lau Kong-wah	41.5 {4}	46.1 {3}[19]	44.8 {4}	-	43.5 {4} +/-1.6	73%	--
Lau Wong-fat	37.8 {5}	43.7 {5}[19]	42.4 {5}	-	33.1 {5} +/-1.5	86%	--
Anthony Cheung	49.6[18][19]	54.1[18][19]	50.6[18][19]	46.7[18][19]	48.4[18]+/-1.5	61%	+1.7[19]
Leong Che-hung	-	-	-	47.2 {2}	--	--	--
Anna Wu	-	-	-	42.1 {4}	--	--	--

[17] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[18] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[19] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest rating survey conducted in the second half of October showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 49.5 marks. The 2nd rank went to Leung Chun-ying with 47.5 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat with 43.9, 43.5 and 33.1 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 43.5 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 48.4 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	11-13/1/10	15-25/4/10	19-21/7/10	26-30/10/10	No.of times on top 5	Average rating[20]	Overall ranking[21]
Ronald Arculli	56.5	55.1	48.8	49.5	4	52.5	1
Leung Chun-ying	49.2	48.2	45.6	47.5	4	47.6	2
Cheung Yiu-tong	44.9	45.2	41.8	43.9	4	44.0	3
Lau Kong-wah	46.1	44.8	-	43.5	3	44.8	4
Lau Wong-fat	43.7	42.4	-	33.1	3	39.7	5
Leong Che-hung	-	-	47.2	-	1	47.2	6
Anna Wu	-	-	42.1	-	1	42.1	7

[20] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys. [21] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying and Cheung Yiu-tong ranked 1st to 3rd place respectively and achieved an average rating of 52.5, 47.6 and 44.0 marks. Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list for three times with corresponding ratings of 44.8 and 39.7 marks and ranked 4th and 5th place. Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu have been on the list once with corresponding ratings of 47.2 and 42.1 marks and ranked 6th and 7th place.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of both CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government have dropped, after many rounds of Policy Address discussions, close to the level registered before the Manila hostage incident two months ago. CE's net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points, while the SARG's net satisfaction rate stands at negative 4 percentage points. As for the popularity of Executive Councillors, compared to three months ago, our list of "top five non-official Executive Councillors" has changed a lot. In terms of familiarity, Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu who were both new to the list and occupied the second and fourth positions last time have dropped out of the list, replaced by Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat. In terms of absolute ratings, those of the three councillors who remain on the list have all gone up. Among them, those of Cheng Yiu-tong and Leung Chun-ying have changed beyond sampling errors, up by 2.1 and 1.9 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli remains on the top, Leung Chun-ying goes up one position to become second, Cheng Yiu-tong goes up two positions to become the third. Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat re-enter the list to occupy the fourth and fifth positions respectively, but Lau Wong-fat's rating is his historical low in this series, no doubt due to the controversy over his declaration of interests. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design."

• November 9, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials