HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in October, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest surveys show that compared to three months ago, the popularity of most of our "top 10' best known Legislative Councillors has increased, after its plunge near the last turn of the year, roughly back to the level registered before the rows over political reform and the funding of the Express Rail Link. In terms of familiarity, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Chan who occupied the fourth and eighth positions last time have dropped out of the list, replaced by Regina Ip and Tam Yiu-chung. In terms of absolute ratings, compared to three months ago, those with significant increases over the last two surveys include Audrey Eu, Wong Yuk-man, Andrew Cheng, Leung Kwok-hung, Alan Leong, Jasper Tsang and Albert Ho, whose ratings increased by 6.3, 5.8, 5.4, 5.4, 3.1, 2.2 and 1.5 marks respectively. The rating of Emily Lau has dropped, but only within errors. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu replaces Alan Leong to occupy the first place. Regina Ip re-enters the list to rank second. Andrew Cheng jumps three places to take the third place. Alan Leong drops from the top place to rank fourth, Albert Ho drops two places to rank fifth, Jasper Tsang up one place to rank sixth, while Emily Lau drops 3 places to rank eighth. The relative positions of Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung remain unchanged. However, it should also be noted that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 『top 10" list by design. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.2 and +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 60.0% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 65.4% response rate.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/- 1.9 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures.
[4] When quoting the rating figures of this survey, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6]
5-8/10/2010 (First stage naming survey)	1,014	60.0%	+/-3%
14-21/10/2010 (Second stage rating survey)	1,013	65.4%	+/-1.9

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Emily Lau, Audrey Eu and Jasper Tsang were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-October, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	15-19/10/09	18-21/1/10	26-29/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	Latest Change
Sample base	1,002	1,013	1,010	1,010	1,013	--
Overall response rate	69.9%	66.9%	69.5%	64.1%	65.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Audrey Eu	62.4{1}	55.1 {1}[9]	53.9 {2}	55.9{2}[9]	62.2 {1} +/-1.5	+6.3[9]
Regina Ip	61.9{2}	--	55.1 {1}	--	59.9 {2} +/-1.2	--
Andrew Cheng	--	--	--	54.1{6}	59.5 {3} +/-1.3	+5.4[9]
Alan Leong[10]	60.1{3}	53.8 {2}[9]	--	56.2{1}	59.3 {4} +/-1.4	+3.1[9]
Albert Ho	52.8{6}[9]	51.8 {5}	51.2 {5}	55.2{3}[9]	56.7 {5} +/-1.3	+1.5[9]
Jasper Tsang	57.3{5}[9]	50.1 {6}[9]	50.3 {7}	53.1{7}[9]	55.3 {6} +/-1.4	+2.2[9]
Tam Yiu-chung	--	48.7 {7}	48.7 {8}	--	54.4 {7} +/-1.4	--
Emily Lau	51.3{7}[9]	53.7 {3}[9]	50.8 {6}[9]	54.3{5}[9]	53.0 {8} +/-1.5	-1.3
Wong Yuk-man[10]	35.5{8}[9]	35.3 {9}	--	28.0{9}	33.8 {9} +/-1.8	+5.8[9]
Leung Kwok-hung[10]	31.6{10}[9]	32.8 {10}	--	26.5{10}	31.9 {10} +/-1.8	+5.4[9]
Tanya Chan[10]	--	52.6[8]	--	--	57.2[8]+/-1.5	--
Albert Chan[10]	--	38.5 {8}	--	33.6{8}	39.9[8]+/-1.9	+6.4[9]
Lee Cheuk-yan	57.7{4}	52.1 {4}[9]	52.4 {3}	54.7{4}[9]	--	--
Cheung Man-kwong	--	--	53.4[8]	54.9[8]	--	--
Lee Wing-tat	--	--`	51.6 {4}	53.0[8]	--	--
Paul Tse	--	--	47.5 {9}	--	--	--
Lau Wong-fat	--	--	42.1 {10}	--	--	--
Lau Kong-wah	53.2 [8]	43.5[8] [9]	46.0[8] [9]	--	--	--
Kam Nai-wai	32.6{9}	--	--	--	--	--
Ronny Tong	58.8[8]	--	--	--	--	--
James To	55.8[8]	--	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] Councillors who resigned in January, so they were excluded in the April survey.

The latest survey conducted in mid-July showed that Audrey Eu was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 62.2 marks while Regina Ip, Andrew Cheng and Alan Leong ranked the 2nd to 4th with 59.9, 59.5 and 59.3 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 8th ranks went to Albert Ho, Jasper Tsang, Tam Yiu-chung and Emily Lau, who attained 56.7, 55.3, 54.4 and 53.0 marks respectively. Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung ranked the 9th and 10th, attaining 33.8 and 31.9 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 59.5 marks, while that for the top 10 was 52.6 marks. For this latest survey, Tanya Chan and Albert Chan obtained support ratings of 57.2 and 39.9 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-21/1/10	26-29/4/10	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[11]	Overall ranking[12]
Audrey Eu	55.1	53.9	55.9	62.2	4	56.8	1
Albert Ho	51.8	51.2	55.2	56.7	4	53.7	2
Emily Lau	53.7	50.8	54.3	53.0	4	53.0	3
Jasper Tsang	50.1	50.3	53.1	55.3	4	52.2	4
Alan Leong[13]	53.8	-	56.2	59.3	3	56.4	5
Lee Cheuk-yan	52.1	52.4	54.7	--	3	53.1	6
Tam Yiu-chung	48.7	48.7	-	54.4	3	50.6	7
Wong Yuk-man[13]	35.3	-	28.0	33.8	3	32.4	8
Leung Kwok-hung[13]	32.8	-	26.5	31.9	3	30.4	9
Regina Ip	-	55.1	-	59.9	2	57.5	10
Andrew Cheng	-	-	54.1	59.5	2	56.8	11
Albert Chan[13]	38.5	-	33.6	--	2	36.1	12
Lee Wing-tat	-	51.6	-	--	1	51.6	13
Paul Tse	-	47.5	-	--	1	47.5	14
Lau Wong-fat	-	42.1	-	--	1	42.1	15

[11] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
[12] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[13] Councillors who resigned in January.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that four Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 56.8 marks, Albert Ho, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang who ranked the 2nd to 4th and attained 53.7, 53.0 and 52.2 marks correspondingly. Alan Leong, Lee Cheuk-yan, Tam Yiu-chung, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung have been on the list for three times, attaining 56.4, 53.1, 50.6, 32.4 and 30.4 marks on average, and ranked the 5th to 9th. Regina Ip, Andrew Cheng and Albert Chan have been on the list for two times, attaining 57.5, 56.8 and 36.1 on average, and ranked the 10th to 12th. Lee Wing-tat, Paul Tse and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list once and ranked the 13th to 15th, with 51.6, 47.5, and 42.1 marks correspondingly.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from July 12 to 15, 2010 while this survey was conducted from October 14 to 21, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/10/10	The government proposes to tighten privacy laws and to make the unauthorised sale of personal data a criminal offence.
15/10/10	The government will establish new regulation to prevent developers from inflating the floor area of flats.
13/10/10	Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen delivers 2010 annual Policy Address.
8/10/10	Beijing human rights activist Liu Xiaobo wins Nobel Peace Prize.
6/10/10	Government launches second stage public consultation on healthcare reform.
2/10/10	Travel Industry Council implements a new system to manage the discipline of travel agents.
21/9/10	HKSAR government consults public about the application of hosting Asian Games and Asian Para Games 2023.
17/9/10	Protests against Japan are launched in different Chinese cities due to the sovereignty of Diaoyu Islands.
30/8/10	Provisional Minimum Wage Commission suggests the minimum wage to be set around $28-30 per hour.
29/8/10	People marched in silence to mourn the eight Hong Kong people who were killed in the Manila hostage incident.
23/8/10	One Hong Kong travel tour was hostaged in Manila, ended up with eight tourists dead and seven injured.
20/8/10	Hong Kong government consults public about the three proposals of West Kowloon Cultural District.
13/8/10	HKSAR Government launches new steps to cool property market.
27/7/10	The tour guide "Chun" conveyed the incident of scolding mainland tourists in a press conference.
17/7/10	Legislative Council passes minimum wage bill.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity of most of our "top 10' best known Legislative Councillors has increased, after its plunge near the last turn of the year, roughly back to the level registered before the rows over political reform and the funding of the Express Rail Link. In terms of familiarity, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Chan who occupied the fourth and eighth positions last time have dropped out of the list, replaced by Regina Ip and Tam Yiu-chung. In terms of absolute ratings, compared to three months ago, those with significant increases over the last two surveys include Audrey Eu, Wong Yuk-man, Andrew Cheng, Leung Kwok-hung, Alan Leong, Jasper Tsang and Albert Ho, whose ratings increased by 6.3, 5.8, 5.4, 5.4, 3.1, 2.2 and 1.5 marks respectively. The rating of Emily Lau has dropped, but only within errors. In terms of relative rankings, Audrey Eu replaces Alan Leong to occupy the first place. Regina Ip re-enters the list to rank second. Andrew Cheng jumps three places to take the third place. Alan Leong drops from the top place to rank fourth, Albert Ho drops two places to rank fifth, Jasper Tsang up one place to rank sixth, while Emily Lau drops 3 places to rank eighth. The relative positions of Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung remain unchanged. It should be noted that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the "top 10" list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our 『Opinion Daily" feature page."

• November 2, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE, HKSAR Government and Executive Council members