HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on October 5, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between 18 and 24 September by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to three months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has receded signicantly from its post-handover record high registered last time by 14 percentage points to 37%. Legco members' net popularity now stands at negative 16 percentage points, probably due to Legco's passing of the political reform proposals. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force has increased significantly to a new high since the end of 2007, while their dissatisfaction has dropped significantly. Its net popularity now stands at positive 68 percentage points. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has not changed much, while its dissatisfaction rate continues to remain near zero. Its net popularity now stands at positive 50 percentage points. It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 66.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all satisfaction and dissatisfaction rates is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages ^[6]
18-24/9/2010	1,010	66.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-17/9/09	14-17/12/09	23-25/3/10	18-22/6/10	18-24/9/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,004	1,000	1,012	1,009	1,010	--
Overall response rate	65.4%	70.5%	69.3%	66.7%	66.2%	--
Finding /Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error ^[7]	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members^[8]	21%	18%^[9]	18%	19%	21+/-3%	+2%
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members^[8]	34%	47%^[9]	49%	51%	37+/-3%	-14%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=948)	2.5+/-0.1^[9] (Base=945)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=955)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=942)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=947)	+0.2^[9]
Satisfaction rate of HKPF^[8]	63%^[9]	67%^[9]	71%^[9]	69%	74+/-3%	+5%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF^[8]	13%^[9]	12%	10%	13%^[9]	6+/-1%	-7%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=991)	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=992)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=990)	3.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	+0.1
Satisfaction rate of PLA^[8]	59%	65%^[9]	56%^[9]	55%	53+/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA^[8]	2%	2%	3%	3%	3+/-1%	--
Mean value^[8]	4.0+/-0.1 (Base=752)	4.0+/-0.1 (Base=788)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=737)	4.0+/-0.1 (Base=677)	3.9+/-0.1 (Base=726)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in the second half of September revealed that 21% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 37% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 74% were satisfied while 6% were dissatisfied. Besides, 53% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 3% were dissatisfied. The mean score of the Legco members is 2.7, meaning close to "half-half", while the respective mean scores of the two disciplinary forces are 3.8 and 3.9, meaning close to "satisfactory" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 18 to 22, 2010 while this survey was conducted from September 18 to 24, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/9/10	Captain Zhan is finally released after a 17-days detention by Japan.
20/9/10	Many newspapers report the follow-up of the Manila hostage incident.
19/9/10	The diplomatic relationship between China and Japan gets worse due to the sovereignty of Diaoyu Islands.
30/8/10	Provisional Minimum Wage Commission suggests the minimum wage to be set around $28-30 per hour.
29/8/10	People marched in silence to mourn the eight Hong Kong people who were killed in the Manila hostage incident.
23/8/10	One Hong Kong travel tour was hostaged in Manila, ended up with eight tourists dead and seven injured.
13/8/10	HKSAR Government launches new steps to cool property market.
6/8/10	Bokhary's assault senetence goes to Court of Appeal.
17/7/10	Legislative Council passes minimum wage bill.
14/7/10	Police raid Henderson Land on Conduit Road incident
1/7/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the July 1 demonstration and also the public criticism to the Democratic party.
25/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Legislative Council election proposal.
24/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Chief Executive selection proposal.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that compared to three months ago, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members has receded signicantly from its post-handover record high registered last time by 14 percentage points to 37%. Legco members' net popularity now stands at negative 16 percentage points, probably due to Legco's passing of the political reform proposals. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is positive 11 percentage points, as published before.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force has increased significantly to a new high since the end of 2007, while their dissatisfaction has dropped significantly. Its net popularity now stands at positive 68 percentage points. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has not changed much, while its dissatisfaction rate continues to remain near zero. Its net popularity now stands at positive 50 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance."

Future Releases (Tentative)

October 11, 2010 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Survey on people's expectation for the Policy Address
October 12, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and Principal Officials