HKU POP SITE releases survey on Taiwan and Tibet issues, and the popularity of cross-strait political figuresBack

Press Release on September 30, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| 1. Taiwan and Tibet Issues | 2. Latest ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |
| Detailed Findings (Rating of the Top Ten Political Figures in Mainland China and Taiwan) |

Abstract

The latest surveys conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong show that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's views on the independence of Taiwan and Tibet have not changed much, oppositions remain high at about 70%. However, people's support of Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, and their confidence in reunification across the strait have gone down somewhat, while those who consider "one country, two systems" applicable to Taiwan have not changed much. Regarding cross-strait political figures, compared to six months ago, among the 10 figures best known to the Hong Kong public, 7 register significant drops in their ratings while 2 register significant gains. As for their relative rankings, Wen Jiabao continues to top the list, while Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao continue to rank 2nd and 3rd. Xi Jinping enters top 10 for the first time and occupies the 4th place, while Lee Teng-hui drops two positions to rank 9th. Other positions have not changed much. The sampling errors of rating figures registered fall between +/-1.0 and +/-1.6 while the maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points. The response rate of the surveys is between 65% and 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of Taiwan and Tibet issues and that of the first stage naming survey on top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are both 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 65.3%. The sample size of the second stage rating survey on top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 66.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level」.
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest survey on Taiwan and Tibet issues, and popularity of cross-strait political figures. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010.

1. Taiwan and Tibet Issues

Herewith the contact information for the survey on Taiwan and Tibet issues:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
7-11/9/2010	1,011	65.3%	+/3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	7-13/9/09	8-11/12/09	9-15/3/10	9-13/6/10	7-11/9/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,002	1,007	1,004	1,004	1,011	--
Overall response rate	69.7%	69.2%	66.4%	68.2%	65.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	78%	75%	71%^[8]	73%	71+/-3%	-2%
Taiwan independence: Support rate	12%^[8]	14%	14%	17%^[8]	15+/-2%	-2%
Tibet independence: Opposition rate	76%	74%	72%	71%	69+/-3%	-2%
Tibet independence: Support rate	9%^[8]	13%^[8]	11%	14%^[8]	12+/-2%	-2%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	57%	62%^[8]	49%^[8]	53%^[8]	49+/-3%	-4%^[8]
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	32%	27%^[8]	40%^[8]	37%	38+/-3%	+1%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	42%^[8]	40%	42%	41%	37+/-3%	-4%^[8]
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	40%^[8]	44%^[8]	41%	43%	43+/-3%	--
Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan	53%^[8]	55%	53%	46%^[8]	47+/-3%	+1%
Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan	34%	32%	35%	41%^[8]	38+/-3%	-3%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 71% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 15% showed support. Meanwhile, 69% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 12% held a positive view. Besides, 49% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 38% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 37% supported Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 43% opposed it. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 47% gave a positive view while 38% gave a negative answer.

2. Latest ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey on top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[9]
7-11/9/2010 (First stage naming survey)	1,011	65.3%	+/-3%
18-24/9/2010 (Second stage rating survey)	1,010	66.2%	+/-1.6

[9] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-jeou, Wen Jiabao, Chen Shui-bian and Jiang Zemin were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid September, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	17-18/3/2009	24-30/9/2009	9-15/3/2010	18-24/9/2010		Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,000	1,004	1,010		--
Overall response rate	63.3%	66.2%	66.4%	66.2%		--
Latest finding / Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[10]	Recognition rate	--
Wen Jiabao	79.6{1}	77.5{1}^[12]	78.6{1}^[12]	76.9{1} +/-1.0	98.4%	-1.7^[12]
Zhu Rongji	74.3{3}	75.4{3}	76.0{2}	71.8{2} +/-1.2	88.7%	-4.2^[12]
Hu Jintao	76.8{2}^[12]	75.7{2}^[12]	75.9{3}	70.9{3} +/-1.1	98.1%	-5.0^[12]
Xi Jinping	63.1^[11]^[12]	62.7^[11]	65.5^[11]^[12]	61.8{4} +/-1.2	73.6%	-3.7^[12]
Ma Ying-jeou	64.7{4}	62.3{4}^[12]	61.5{4}	58.9{5} +/-1.0	89.7%	-2.6^[12]
Jiang Zemin	62.4{5}^[12]	61.0{5}	60.6{5}	56.0{6} +/-1.5	91.7%	-4.6^[12]
Lien Chan	54.9{6}^[12]	52.9{6}^[12]	51.0{6}^[12]	54.3{7} +/-1.3	77.4%	+3.3^[12]
Li Peng	45.3{7}	44.1{7}	41.4{8}^[12]	42.7{8} +/-1.6	83.1%	+1.3
Lee Teng-hui	39.0{8}	43.4{8}^[12]	41.6{7}^[12]	35.7{9} +/-1.6	82.5%	-5.9^[12]
Chen Shui-bian	15.0{10}	13.8{10}	16.7{10}^[12]	18.2{10} +/-1.3	95.8%	+1.5^[12]
Huang Huahua	--	--	--	56.5^[11] +/-1.3	61.9%	--
Li Keqiang	--	--	52.5^[11]	55.4^[11]+/-1.6	44.5%	+2.9^[12]
Lu Hsiu-lien	32.6{9}^[11]	35.4{9}^[11]^[12]	34.6{9}^[11]	--	--	--
Wu Bangguo	--	55.3^[11]	--	--	--	--
Wu Yi	68.6^[11]	--	--	--	--	--

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. {} Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[11] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in mid September revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Wen Jiabao topped the list, attaining 76.9 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao with respective scores of 71.8 and 70.9 marks. Xi Jinping ranked the 4th, attaining 61.8 marks. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin and Lien Chan occupied the 5th to 7th ranks with 58.9, 56.0 and 54.3 marks correspondingly. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 42.7, 35.7 and 18.2 marks. For this latest survey, Huang Huahua and Li Keqiang obtained support ratings of 56.5 and 55.4 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 68.1 marks, while that for the top 10 was 54.7 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 18 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-18/3/2009	24-30/9/2009	9-15/3/2010	18-24/9/2010	No. of times on top 10	Average rating^[13]	Overall ranking^[14]
Wen Jiabao	79.6	77.5	78.6	76.9	4	78.2	1
Hu Jintao	76.8	75.7	75.9	70.9	4	74.8	2
Zhu Rongji	74.3	75.4	76.0	71.8	4	74.4	3
Ma Ying-Jeou	64.7	62.3	61.5	58.9	4	61.9	4
Jiang Zemin	62.4	61.0	60.6	56.0	4	60.0	5
Lien Chan	54.9	52.9	51.0	54.3	4	53.3	6
Li Peng	45.3	44.1	41.4	42.7	4	43.4	7
Lee Teng-hui	39.0	43.4	41.6	35.7	4	39.9	8
Chen Shui-bian	15.0	13.8	16.7	18.2	4	15.9	9
Lu Hsiu-lien	32.6	35.4	34.6	--	3	34.2	10
Xi Jinping	--	--	--	61.8	1	61.8	11

[13] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
[14] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 18 months showed that nine political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Wen Jiabao in the top rank achieving an average rating of 78.2 marks, Hu Jintao and Zhu Rongji ranked 2nd to 3rd and attained 74.8 and 74.4 marks correspondingly, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin and Lien Chan who ranked 4th to 6th with respective scores of 61.9, 60.0 and 53.3 marks. Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian ranked 7th to 9th and attained 43.4, 39.9 and 15.9 marks correspondingly. Lu Hsiu-lien has been on the list for three times with 34.2 marks and ranked the 10th. Xi Jinping has been on the list once with 61.8 marks at the 11th place.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 9 to 15, 2010 while the latest survey was conducted from September 18 to 24, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/9/10	Captain Zhan is finally released after a 17-days detention by Japan.
17/9/10	Protests against Japan are launched in different Chinese cities due to the sovereignty of Diaoyu Islands.
6/9/10	Shenzhen Special Economic Zone organizes its 30th Anniversary Ceremony.
15/8/10	August 15 was set the National Mourning Day for mudflow in Zhouqu.
19/7/10	Hong Kong and mainland china sign a new Renminbi settlement agreement.
29/6/10	Mainland China and Taiwan sign ECFA.
7/6/10	Chinese Central government responds to the definition of universal suffrage and the request of political reform.
24/5/10	Central government liaison office meets with the Democratic Party to talk about Hong Kong political development.
30/4/10	The Shanghai World Expo 2010 opens.
15/4/10	The rescue of Qinhai earthquake continues.
7/4/10	China/Guangdong and Hong Kong signed the Framework Agreement.
6/4/10	Sheunghai Mayor Han Zheng visit Taiwan to sign the memoranda of a new mode of exchange and cooperation between Sheunghai and Taiwan.
5/4/10	The miners are rescured after being trapped in the mine in Shanxi for 8 days.
31/3/10	The Hong Kong-Taiwan Economic and Cultural Co-operation and Promotion Council is established.
23/3/10	Search engine Google departs from Mainland China in area of searching service.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's views on the independence of Taiwan and Tibet have not changed much, oppositions remain high at about 70%. However, people's support of Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, and their confidence in reunification across the strait have gone down somewhat, while those who consider "one country, two systems" applicable to Taiwan have not changed much. Regarding cross-strait political figures, compared to six months ago, among the 10 figures best known to the Hong Kong public, 7 register significant drops in their ratings while 2 register significant gains. As for their relative rankings, Wen Jiabao continues to top the list, while Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao continue to rank 2nd and 3rd. Xi Jinping enters top 10 for the first time and occupies the 4th place, while Lee Teng-hui drops two positions to rank 9th. Other positions have not changed much. It should be noted that our list of 'top 10 cross-strait political figures' only include those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

October 5, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legco members, the Police and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison