HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on September 28, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between 18 and 24 September 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang have receded a bit, after their big jump half a month ago. All latest changes, however, are within sampling errors. CE's net popularity now stands at positive 5 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's general satisfaction rate has increased significantly, and its net popularity surged from negative 12 to positive 11 percentage points, the first positive figure since September 2009. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, the dissatisfaction rates of all items have significantly decreased. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 44 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 25 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 8 percentage points, developing democracy at positive 1 percentage point and improving people's livelihood at negative 21 percentage points. The government obviously has to do more to improve people's livelihood. Because the frequency of survey for different sets of questions is different, some changes may have lagged behind others. Because the surge in CE's popularity was first registered in our survey conducted after the Manila hostage incident, the popularity boost of the SAR Government registered in this survey should also be directly related to the incident. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 66.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2010.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-24/9/2010	1,010	66.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-21/7/10	2-6/8/10	17-20/8/10	31/8/10-3/9/10	18-24/9/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,007	1,005	1,006	1,010	1,010	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	65.8%	64.4%	65.2%	66.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	50.3	50.6	51.3	58.5^[9]	57.9+/-1.2	-0.6
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	35%	30%^[9]	35%^[9]	47%^[9]	44+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	50%	51%	49%	37%^[9]	39+/-3%	+2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	30%	--	27%	--	37+/-3%	+10%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	41%	--	39%	--	26+/-3%	-13%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,000)	--	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=994)	--	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=1,006)	+0.3^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 57.9 marks, and 44% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 37% were satisfied, whereas 26% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 3.1, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	14-17/9/2009	14-17/12/2009	23-25/3/2010	18-22/6/2010	18-24/9/2010	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base	1,004	1,000	1,012	1,009	1,010
Overall response rate	65.4%	70.5%	69.3%	66.7%	66.2%
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	50%^[12]	60%^[12]	50%^[12]	49%	57+/-3%	+8%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	20%^[12]	14%^[12]	22%^[12]	28%^[12]	13+/-2%	-15%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=952)	3.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=954)	3.3+/-0.1^[12] (Base=954)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=930)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=957)	+0.3^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	43%	45%	42%	38%^[12]	49+/-3%	+11%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	29%	28%	34%^[12]	41%^[12]	24+/-3%	-17%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=981)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=970)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base=987)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=971)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=992)	+0.3^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	37%	37%	35%	40%^[12]	37+/-3%	-3%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	28%	33%^[12]	34%	37%	29+/-3%	-8%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=992)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=990)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=1,000)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=996)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=995)	--
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	28%	32%^[12]	29%	32%	34+/-3%	+2%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	41%	42%	43%	45%	33+/-3%	-12%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=959)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=957)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=963)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=951)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=979)	+0.2^[12]
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate[11]	28%	24%^[12]	23%	26%	23+/-3%	-3%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	40%^[12]	47%^[12]	49%	53%^[12]	44+/-3%	-9%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=990)	2.6+/-0.1^[12] (Base=986)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,004)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=992)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=996)	+0.1

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 57%. The government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 49%. Finally, a respective of 37%, 34% and 23% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.5, 3.2, 3.0, 2.9 and 2.7 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 18 to 22, 2010 while this survey was conducted from September 18 to 24, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/9/10	HKSAR governmnet consults public about the application of hosting Asian Games and Asian Para Games 2023.
20/9/10	Many newspapers report the follow-up of the Manila hostage incident.
4/9/10	Travel Industry Council study new measure to regulate tour guides and travel agencies.
30/8/10	Provisional Minimum Wage Commission suggests the minimum wage to be set around $28-30 per hour.
29/8/10	People marched in silence to mourn the eight Hong Kong people who were killed in the Manila hostage incident.
23/8/10	One Hong Kong travel tour was hostaged in Manila, ended up with eight tourists dead and seven injured.
20/8/10	Hong Kong government consults public about the three proposals of West Kowloon Cultural District.
13/8/10	HKSAR Government launches new steps to cool property market.
19/7/10	Hong Kong and mainland china sign a new renminbi settlement agreement.
15/7/10	Government announces to increase public housing rent.
13/7/10	The Chief Executive claims to put emphasis on improving citizens' livelihood in his policy.
1/7/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the July 1 demonstration and also the public criticism to the Democratic party.
25/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Legislative Council election proposal.
24/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Chief Executive selection proposal.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang have receded a bit, after their big jump half a month ago. All latest changes, however, are within sampling errors. CE's net popularity now stands at positive 5 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's general satisfaction rate has increased significantly, and its net popularity surged from negative 12 to positive 11 percentage points, the first positive figure since September 2009. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, the dissatisfaction rates of all items have significantly decreased. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 44 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 25 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 8 percentage points, developing democracy at positive 1 percentage point and improving people's livelihood at negative 21 percentage points. The government obviously has to do more to improve people's livelihood. Because the frequency of survey for different sets of questions is different, some changes may have lagged behind others. Because the surge in CE's popularity was first registered in our survey conducted after the Manila hostage incident, the popularity boost of the SAR Government registered in this survey should also be directly related to the incident. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Releases (Tentative)

September 30, 2010 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Taiwan and Tibet issues, ratings of Cross-Strait political figures
October 5, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legislative Councillors, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison