HKU POP SITE releases the latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on September 21, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between 7 and 11 September, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR government has surged 12 percentage points from a low point registered three months ago back to over 50%. People's trust in the Beijing Central government remains stable, but distrust has significantly retreated, while people's trust in the Taiwan government remains low. People's net trust in the HKSAR and Central governments now stand at positive 37 and 20 percentage points, while their net trust in the Taiwan government now stands at negative 22 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, positive confidence in the future of Hong Kong and "one country, two systems" have recovered significantly, with net confidence standing at positive 46 and 33 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in China's future has not changed much, with net confidence standing at positive 68 percentage points. All positive figures of people's confidence remain high. Recent events that might have affected the ups and downs of theses figures include the signing of ECFA in between Mainland China and Taiwan, the killing of Hong Kong hostages in Manila and the handling of territorial dispute over Diaoyu Islands by Mainland and Taiwan authorities. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 65.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2010. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
7-11/9/2010	1,011	65.3%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	20-30/10/09	28-30/12/09	1-3/3/10	9-13/6/10	7-11/9/10	Latest Change
Sample base	1,005	1,028	1,005	1,004	1,011	--
Overall response rate	73.1%	66.5%	64.2%	68.2%	65.3%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[8]	45%	48%	46%	41%^[9]	53+/-3%	+12%^[9]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[8]	28%^[9]	20%^[9]	26%^[9]	31%^[9]	16+/-2%	-15%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	3.1+/-0.1 (base = 983)	3.3+/-0.1^[9] (base = 1,016)	3.2+/-0.1 (base = 995)	3.1+/-0.1 (base = 989)	3.4+/-0.1 (base=994)	+0.3^[9]
Trust in Beijing Government^[8]	52%^[9]	49%	48%	42%^[9]	42+/-3%	--
Distrust in Beijing Government^[8]	19%^[9]	21%	29%^[9]	32%	22+/-3%	-10%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	3.4+/-0.1 (base = 964)	3.4+/-0.1 (base = 993)	3.2+/-0.1^[9] (base = 975)	3.1+/-0.1 (base = 975)	3.2+/-0.1 (base=965)	+0.1
Trust in Taiwan Government^[8]	22%^[9]	14%^[9]	16%	18%	13+/-2%	-5%^[9]
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[8]	38%	41%	49%^[9]	43%^[9]	35+/-3%	-8%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	2.7+/-0.1 (base = 849)	2.5+/-0.1^[9] (base = 806)	2.4+/-0.1 (base = 838)	2.6+/-0.1^[9] (base = 813)	2.6+/-0.1 (base=763)	--
Confidence in HK's future	67%^[9]	68%	68%	60%^[9]	69+/-3%	+9%^[9]
No-confidence in HK's future	26%	26%	27%	35%^[9]	23+/-3%	-12%^[9]
Confidence in China's future	87%	86%	86%	83%^[9]	81+/-2%	-2%
No-confidence in China's future	8%	9%	10%	13%^[9]	13+/-2%	--
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	67%^[9]	66%	64%	57%^[9]	62+/-3%	+5%^[9]
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	26%	28%	31%	39%^[9]	29+/-3%	-10%^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 53% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 42% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 13% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these indicators are 3.4, 3.2 and 2.6 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 69% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 81% had confidence in China's future, while 62% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 9 to 13, 2010 while this survey was conducted from September 7 to 11, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/9/10	Shenzhen Special Economic Zone organizes its 30th Anniversary Ceremony.
29/8/10	People marched in silence to mourn the eight Hong Kong people who were killed in the Manila hostage incident.
23/8/10	One Hong Kong travel tour was hostaged in Manila, ended up with eight tourists dead and seven injured.
15/8/10	August 15 was set the National Mourning Day for mudflow in Zhouqu.
13/8/10	HKSAR Government launches new steps to cool property market.
6/8/10	Bokhary's assault sentence goes to Court of Appeal.
19/7/10	Hong Kong and mainland china sign a new Renminbi settlement agreement.
17/7/10	Legislative Council passes minimum wage bill.
1/7/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the July 1 demonstration and also the public criticism to the Democratic party.
29/6/10	Mainland China and Taiwan sign ECFA.
25/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Legislative Council election proposal.
24/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Chief Executive selection proposal.
17/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the TV debate on political reform.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR government has surged 12 percentage points from a low point registered three months ago back to over 50%. People's trust in the Beijing Central government remains stable, but distrust has significantly retreated, while people's trust in the Taiwan government remains low. People's net trust in the HKSAR and Central governments now stand at positive 37 and 20 percentage points, while their net trust in the Taiwan government now stands at negative 22 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, positive confidence in the future of Hong Kong and "one country, two systems" have recovered significantly, with net confidence standing at positive 46 and 33 percentage points respectively. People's confidence in China's future has not changed much, with net confidence standing at positive 68 percentage points. All positive figures of people's confidence remain high. Recent events that might have affected the ups and downs of theses figures include the signing of ECFA in between Mainland China and Taiwan, the killing of Hong Kong hostages in Manila and the handling of territorial dispute over Diaoyu Islands by Mainland and Taiwan authorities. As for the other reasons, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

September 28, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SAR Government