HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political groupsBack

Press Release on August 31, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of the top 10 political groups in August by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that after Legco passed the 2012 political reform package, the ratings of all groups other than Frontier and LSD have recovered, but only HKCTU and FTU have more than 50 marks, while that of LSD has dropped to its all time record low. In terms of relative rankings, compared to three months ago, HKCTU and FTU continue to stay at the 1st and 2nd places. DP advances two positions to become the 3rd. HKASPDMC and ADPL which were 3rd and 4th last time drop one and two places respectively to take the 4th and 6th places, while CP and DAB advance two and one positions respectively to take the 5th and 7th places. Frontier which was 6th last time drops two positions to take the 8th place. LP and LSD continue to take the 9th and 10th positions. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.2 and +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 61.3% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 64.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year end.

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings^[5]
10-13/8/10 (First stage naming survey)	1,007	61.3%	+/-3%
17-20/8/10 (Second stage rating survey)	1,006	64.4%	+/-2.0

[5] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from August 10 to 13. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), League of Social Democrats (LSD) and Civic Party (CP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from August 17 to 20, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. In the survey series of August and November 2009, our research team eliminated Frontier from the list. However, since there were news of Frontier reported in newspaper in January 1 rally this year, we have decided to put it back to the list since last time. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	19-23/11/09	4-9/2/10	18-20/5/10	17-20/8/2010		Latest change
Sample base	1,001	1,060	1,015	1,006		--
Overall response rate	76.7%	67.3%	72.5%	64.4%		--
Finding /Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[6]	Recognition rate	--
HKCTU	51.3 {3}	52.8{1}^[8]	49.9{1}^[8]	51.1+/-1.3{1}	83%	+1.2
FTU	51.7 {2}	51.3{2}^[9]	47.7{2}^[8]	50.5+/-1.3{2}	85%	+2.8^[8]
DP	48.4 {7}^[8]	49.9{5}^[8]	46.6{5}^[8]	49.7+/-1.2{3}	92%	+3.1^[8]
HKASPDMC	46.6 {8}	50.0{4}^[8]	47.6{3}^[8]	49.2+/-1.4{4}	83%	+1.6^[8]
CP	50.2 {4}	48.9{7}	44.5{7}^[8]	48.9+/-1.4{5}	85%	+4.4^[8]
ADPL	50.1 {5}	51.3{3}^[9]	47.4{4}^[8]	48.3+/-1.2{6}	75%	+0.9
DAB	48.9{6}	48.1{8}	43.0{8}^[8]	47.8+/-1.5{7}	90%	+4.8^[8]
Frontier	--	49.4{6}	45.0{6}^[8]	44.7+/-1.5{8}	68%	-0.3
LP	44.9 {9}	45.6{9}	40.8{9}^[8]	43.7+/-1.3{9}	86%	+2.9^[8]
LSD	40.6 {10}	39.1{10}	36.6{10}^[8]	33.6+/-1.6{10}	87%	-3.0^[8]
NWS	51.8 {1}^[8]	53.4 ^[7] ^[8]	49.8^[7] ^[8]	50.5^[7]+/-1.4	66%	+0.7
Civil Force	--	--	42.6^[7] ^[8]	42.7^[7]+/-2.0	39%	+0.1
LDF	--	42.9 ^[7]	--	--	--	--
Savantas Policy Institute	47.5 ^[7]			--	--	--
HKDF	46.2 ^[7]			--	--	--

[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[7] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] The ratings of FTU and ADPL are 51.34 and 51.29 respectively in 2 decimal places. Therefore, FTU and ADPL ranked at 2nd and 3rd places respectively.

Findings obtained in second half of August showed that, the best-known political group was the Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) which attained 51.1 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and Democratic Party scored 50.5 and 49.7 marks respectively, ranked 2nd and 3rd. The 4th to 8th places were Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC), Civic Party (CP), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) and Frontier, attaining 49.2, 48.9, 48.3, 47.8 and 44.7 marks respectively. The 9th and 10th places fell to Liberal Party (LP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD), with a respective score of 43.7 and 33.6. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 49.9 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS) and Civil Force obtained a support rating of 50.5 and 42.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	19-23/11/09	4-9/2/10	18-20/5/10	17-20/8/10	No. of times on top 10	Average rating^[10]	Overall ranking^[11]
HKCTU	51.3	52.8	49.9	51.1	4	51.3	{1}
FTU	51.7	51.3	47.7	50.5	4	50.3	{2}
ADPL	50.1	51.3	47.4	48.3	4	49.3	{3}
DP	48.4	49.9	46.6	49.7	4	48.7	{4}
HKASPDMC	46.6	50.0	47.6	49.2	4	48.4	{5}
CP	50.2	48.9	44.5	48.9	4	48.1	{6}
DAB	48.9	48.1	43.0	47.8	4	46.9	{7}
LP	44.9	45.6	40.8	43.7	4	43.8	{8}
LSD	40.6	39.1	36.6	33.6	4	37.5	{9}
Frontier	^[12]	49.4	45.0	44.7	3	46.4	{10}
NWS	51.8	^[12]	^[12]	^[12]	1	51.8	{11}

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 9 political groups were all listed for four times. HKCTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 51.3 marks. FTU, ADPL and DP ranked 2nd to 4th, attaining 50.3, 49.3 and 48.7 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 5th to 9th ranks fell to HKASPDMC, CP, DAB, LP and LSD with respective scores of 48.4, 48.1, 46.9, 43.8 and 37.5. Frontier was listed for three times and ranked 10th, attaining 46.4 marks. NWS was listed for once, with 51.8 marks and ranked 11th.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 18 to 20, 2010 while this survey was conducted from August 17 to 20. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/8/10	Hong Kong government consults public about the three proposals of West Kowloon Cultural District.
13/8/10	HKSAR Government launches new steps to cool property market.
6/8/10	Bokhary's assault senetence goes to Court of Appeal.
17/7/10	Legislative Council passes minimum wage bill.
25/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Legislative Council election proposal.
24/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Chief Executive selection proposal.
21/6/10	Democratic Party supports political reform package through interanl election.
19/6/10	Many newspapers report and discuss the political reform proposal suggested by Democratic Party.
17/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the TV debate on political reform.
24/5/10	Central government liaison office meets with the Democratic Party to talk about Hong Kong political development.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey of "Top 10 Political Groups" shows that after Legco passed the 2012 political reform package, the ratings of all groups other than Frontier and LSD have recovered, but only HKCTU and FTU have more than 50 marks, while that of LSD has dropped to its all time record low. In terms of relative rankings, compared to three months ago, HKCTU and FTU continue to stay at the 1st and 2nd places. DP advances two positions to become the 3rd. HKASPDMC and ADPL which were 3rd and 4th last time drop one and two places respectively to take the 4th and 6th places, while CP and DAB advance two and one positions respectively to take the 5th and 7th places. Frontier which was 6th last time drops two positions to take the 8th place. LP and LSD continue to take the 9th and 10th positions. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

September 7, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials