HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on August 24, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 17 and 20 August by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that CE Donald Tsang's support rating continues to rise, back to the level registered in April. Compared to our previous survey, his approval rate has gone up significantly, while his disapproval rate has dropped below 50% for the first time in three months, giving a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has not changed much, and its net popularity now stands at negative 12 percentage points. The killing of Hong Kong hostages in Manila is bound to create a wave of public shock, which would affect people's perception of the CE and the government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 64.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-20/8/2010	1,006	64.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-22/6/2010	5-8/7/2010	19-21/7/2010	2-6/8/2010	17-20/8/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,009	1,022	1,007	1,005	1,006	--
Overall response rate	66.7%	63.6%	66.2%	65.8%	64.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	48.5	49.9	50.3	50.6	51.3+/-1.3	+0.7
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	33%	32%	35%	30%^[9]	35+/-3%	+5%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	51%	52%	50%	51%	49+/-3%	-2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]	31%^[9]	--	30%	--	27+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]	44%	--	41%	--	39+/-3%	-2%
Mean value[8]	2.7 +/-0.1 (Base=996)	--	2.8 +/-0.1 (Base=1,000)	--	2.8 +/-0.1 (Base=994)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.3 marks, and 35% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% were satisfied, whereas 39% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to "half-half" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from July 19 to 21, 2010 while this survey was conducted from August 17 to 20, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/8/10	Hong Kong government consults the public about the three proposals of West Kowloon Cultural District.
13/8/10	HKSAR Government launches new steps to cool property market.
12/8/10	6 banks sell personal data of their clients to other companies.
6/8/10	Bokhary's assault sentence goes to Court of Appeal.
4/8/10	Prudence Chan Pik-wah, CEO of Octopus, quits.
3/8/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the result announcement of the last HKCEE.
29/7/10	Census and Statistics Department announces the population distribution of Hong Kong in the coming 30 years.
28/7/10	The Mt Nicholson Road site at the Peak was sold at HK$10.4 billion.
27/7/10	The tour guide "Chun" conveys the incident of scolding mainland tourists in a press conference.
26/7/10	Octopus Holdings Limited is suspected to sell users' personal data.
19/7/10	Hong Kong and Mainland China sign a new Renminbi settlement agreement.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that CE Donald Tsang's support rating continues to rise, back to the level registered in April. Compared to our previous survey, his approval rate has gone up significantly, while his disapproval rate has dropped below 50% for the first time in three months, giving a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has not changed much, and its net popularity now stands at negative 12 percentage points. The killing of Hong Kong hostages in Manila is bound to create a wave of public shock, which would affect people's perception of the CE and the government."

Future Release (Tentative)

August 31, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Rating of top ten political groups