HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of top 5 Executive CouncillorsBack

Press Release on August 3, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Executive Councillors in July, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey shows that compared to three months ago, our list of "top five non-official Executive Councillors" has changed a lot. In terms of familiarity, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat who occupied the fourth and fifith positions last time have dropped out of the list. They are replaced by Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu who are both new to the list. In terms of absolute ratings, the popularity ratings of the three councillors who remain on the list have all dropped significantly. Among them, Ronald Arculli registers the biggest drop of 6.3 marks to reach his record low since he first appeared on the "top 5" list in May 2006, while Cheng Yiu-tong and Leung Chun-ying have gone down by 3.4 and 2.6 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli remains on the top, Leong Che-hung who is new to the list comes second, Leung Chun-ying drops one position to become third, Anna Wu who is also new to the list occupies the fourth position while Cheng Yiu-tong drops two positions to become fifth. The latest ups and downs of these councillors' popularity are no doubt related to their individual participation in the "Act Now" Campaign. The maximum sampling error of ratings is between +/-1.4 and +/-1.6 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 64.1% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 66.2% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the percentage of all rating figures is below +/-1.6 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 marks and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
12-15/7/2010 （First stage naming survey）	1,010	64.1%	+/-3%
19-21/7/2010 （Second stage rating survey）	1,007	66.2%	+/-1.6

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councillors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	14-18/7/2009	15-19/10/2009	4-9/1/2010	7-12/4/2010	12-15/7/2010	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,010	1,002	1,011	1,009	1,010	--
Overall response rate	67.4%	69.9%	68.0%	65.3%	64.1%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Leung Chun-ying	23%{1}	25%{1}	21%{1}	18%{1}	24+/-3%{1}	--
Ronald Arculli	2%{5}	3%{5}	1%{6}	3%{5}	10+/-2%{2}	+3
Anthony Cheung	2%{6}	2%{6}	2%{5}	4%{4}	5+/-1%{3}^[8]	+1
Cheng Yiu-tong	4%{4}	5%{3}	11%{2}	7%{2}	5+/-1%{4}^[8]	-2
Anna Wu	<1%{9}	<1%{10}	1%{9}	<1%{12}	4+/-1%{5}	+7
Leong Che-hung	<1%{11}	<1%{11}	1%{10}	<1%{10}	3+/-1%{6}^[9]	+4
Lau Kong-wah	5%{2}	3%{4}	2%{4}	2%{6}	3+/-1%{7}^[9]	-1
Lau Wong-fat	4%{3}	5%{2}	4%{3}	5%{3}	2+/-1%{8}	-5
Laura M Cha	1%{7}	1%{7}	1%{7}	1%{8}	1+/-1%{9}^[10]	-1
Lawrence Lau	<1%{8}	1%{8}	1%{8}	1%{9}	1+/-1%{10}^[10]	-1
Charles Lee	<1%{10}	0%{14}	<1%{11}	1%{7}	<1+/-1%{11}^[11]	-4
Marjorie Yang	0%{13}	<1%{12}	0%{12}	0%{14}	<1+/-1%{12}^[11]	+2
Marvin Cheung	0%{13}	<1%{13}	0%{12}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	-2
V Nee YEH	<1%{12}	<1%{9}	0%{12}	<1%{13}	0%{13}	--
Wrong answer	23%	23%	19%	16%	25+/-3%	--
Don't know/hard to say	57%	55%	61%	66%	53+/-3%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Anthony Cheung and Cheng Yiu-tong were 5.3% and 5.1% respectively. Hence Cheung ranked the 3rd while Cheng was placed at 4th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Leong Che-hung and Lau Kong-wah were 3.1% and 2.5% respectively. Hence Leong ranked the 6th while Lau was placed at 7th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura M Cha and Lawrence Lau were 1.4% and 0.7% respectively. Hence Cha ranked the 9th while Lau was placed at 10th rank.
[11] The percentages of respondents who could name Charles Lee and Marjorie Yang were 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Hence Lee ranked the 11th while Yang was placed at 12th rank.

The naming survey conducted in mid-July showed that Leung Chun-ying was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 24%, followed by Ronald Arculli with a recognition rate of 10%. Anthony Cheung, Cheng Yiu-tong and Anna Wu ranked the 3rd to 5th and the corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 5%, 5% and 4%. However, 25% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 53% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in the second half of July, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	20-23/7/2009	20-30/10/2009	11-13/1/2010	15-25/4/2010	19-21/7/2010		Latest change
Sample base	1,003	1,005	1,008	1,020	1,007		--
Overall response rate	68.7%	73.1%	70.3%	69.8%	66.2%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[12]	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	51.1 {1} [14]	50.9 {1}	56.5 {1}^[14]	55.1 {1}^[14]	48.8 {1} +/-1.4	79%	-6.3^[14]
Leong Che-hung	-	-	-	-	47.2 {2} +/-1.5	73%	--
Leung Chun-ying	46.7 {2} ^[14]	44.7 {2} ^[14]	49.2 {2}^[14]	48.2 {2}	45.6 {3} +/-1.5	86%	-2.6^[14]
Anna Wu	-	-	-	-	42.1 {4} +/-1.6	66%	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	42.6 {3} ^[14]	41.9 {3}	44.9 {4}^[14]	45.2 {3}	41.8 {5} +/-1.6	78%	-3.4^[14]
Anthony Cheung	49.0 ^[13] ^[14]	49.6^[13]	54.1^[13] ^[14]	50.6 ^[13]^[14]	46.7 ^[13]+/-1.6	60%	-3.9^[14]
Lau Kong-wah	41.4 {4} ^[14]	41.5{4}	46.1 {3}^[14]	44.8 {4}	-	-	--
Lau Wong-fat	37.6 {5} ^[14]	37.8 {5}	43.7 {5}^[14]	42.4 {5}	-	-	--

[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest rating survey conducted in the second half of July showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 48.8 marks. The 2nd rank went to Leong Che-hung with 47.2 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Leung Chun-ying, Anna Wu and Cheng Yiu-tong, with 45.6, 42.1 and 41.8 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 45.1 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 46.7 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	20-30/10/2009	11-13/1/2010	15-25/4/2010	19-21/7/2010	No.of times on top 5	Average rating ^[15]	Overall ranking ^[16]
Ronald Arculli	50.9	56.5	55.1	48.8	4	52.8	1
Leung Chun-ying	44.7	49.2	48.2	45.6	4	46.9	2
Cheung Yiu-tong	41.9	44.9	45.2	41.8	4	43.5	3
Lau Kong-wah	41.5	46.1	44.8	-	3	44.1	4
Lau Wong-fat	37.8	43.7	42.4	-	3	41.3	5
Leong Che-hung	-	-	-	47.2	1	47.2	6
Anna Wu	-	-	-	42.1	1	42.1	7

[15] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[16] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying and Cheung Yiu-tong ranked 1st to 3rd place respectively and achieved an average rating of 52.8, 46.9 and 43.5 marks. Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat have been on the list for three times with corresponding ratings of 44.1 and 41.3 marks and ranked 4th and 5th place. Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu have been on the list once with corresponding ratings of 47.2 and 42.1 marks and ranked 6th and 7th place.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from April 15 to 25, 2010 while this survey was conducted from July 19 to 21, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/7/10	Legislative Council passes minimum wage bill.
15/7/10	Government announces to increase public housing rent.
13/7/10	Chief Executive claims to put emphasis on improving citizens' livelihood in his policy.
9/7/10	Hong Kong government launches public consultation on free-to-air TV license.
6/7/10	Hong Kong government consults public about the supply of columbarium.
25/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Legislative Council election proposal.
24/6/10	Legislative Council passes the 2012 Chief Executive selection proposal.
19/6/10	Many newspapers report and discuss the political reform proposal suggested by Democratic Party.
17/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the TV debate on political reform.
1/6/10	Hong Kong Government consults public on whether to subsidize home ownership.
29/5/10	Government principal officials promote political reform package to the public.
20/5/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang invites Audrey Eu to a TV debate on political reform.
17/5/10	Many newspapers on the following day follow and discuss the impacts of the Legislative Council by-election on Hong Kong's political development.
16/5/10	The tunrout rate of the Legislative Council by-election is less than 20%.
3/5/10	The Urban Renewal Authority announces 8 new measures on property sales.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, our list of "top five non-official Executive Councillors" has changed a lot. In terms of familiarity, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat who occupied the fourth and fifith positions last time have dropped out of the list. They are replaced by Leong Che-hung and Anna Wu who are both new to the list. In terms of absolute ratings, the popularity ratings of the three councillors who remain on the list have all dropped significantly. Among them, Ronald Arculli registers the biggest drop of 6.3 marks to reach his record low since he first appeared on the "top 5" list in May 2006, while Cheng Yiu-tong and Leung Chun-ying have gone down by 3.4 and 2.6 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli remains on the top, Leong Che-hung who is new to the list comes second, Leung Chun-ying drops one position to become third, Anna Wu who is also new to the list occupies the fourth position while Cheng Yiu-tong drops two positions to become fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The latest ups and downs of these councillors' popularity are no doubt related to their individual participation in the "Act Now" Campaign. As for other possible reasons, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the "Opinion Daily" of our POP Site."

Future Release (Tentative)

August 10, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials