HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on July 8, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of Members of the Fourth HKSAR Legislative Council) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong people between 18 and 22 June by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in the second quarter of 2010, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members continues to increase. Dissatisfaction rate has reached 51% which is record high since the handover. Legco members' net popularity now stands at negative 32 percentage points, probably due to discussions over political reform. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have not changed much, but their dissatisfaction of the former has significantly increased. The latest net popularity of the two forces are positive 56 and positive 52 percentage points respectively. The dissatisfaction rate of the latter continues to remain near zero. It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. Exactly how public opinion will develop after the political reform proposal is passed remains to be seen. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 66.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all satisfaction and dissatisfaction rates is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages ^[6]
18-22/6/2010	1,009	66.7%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-21/6/09	14-17/9/09	14-17/12/09	23-25/3/2010	18-22/6/2010	Latest change
Sample base	1,012	1,004	1,000	1,012	1,009	--
Overall response rate	69.0%	65.4%	70.5%	69.3%	66.7%	--
Finding /Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and Error ^[7]	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members ^[8]	21%	21%	18%^[9]	18%	19+/-2%	+1%
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members ^[8]	35%^[9]	34%	47%^[9]	49%	51+/-3%	+2%
Satisfaction rate of HKPF ^[8]	71%^[9]	63%^[9]	67%^[9]	71%^[9]	69+/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF ^[8]	7% ^[9]	13%^[9]	12%	10%	13+/-2%	+3%^[9]
Satisfaction rate of PLA ^[8]	58%	59%	65%^[9]	56%^[9]	55+/-3%	-1%
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA ^[8]	2%	2%	2%	3%	3+/-1%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in the second half of June revealed that 19% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 51% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 69% were satisfied while 13% were dissatisfied. Besides, 55% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 3% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 23 to 25, 2010 while this survey was conducted from June 18 to 22, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/6/10	Democratic Party support political reform package through interanl election.
19/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the political reform proposal suggested by Democratic Party.
17/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the TV debate on political reform.
12/6/10	Police crack down a few illegal soccer gambling syndicates.
2/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day follow and discuss the death case of Chinese tourist.
29/5/10	Government principal officials promote political reform package to the public.
24/5/10	Central government liaison office meet with the Democratic Party to talk about Hong Kong political development.
20/5/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang invites Audrey Eu to a TV debate on political reform.
17/5/10	Many newspapers on the following day follow and discuss the impacts of the Legislative Council by-election on Hong Kong's political development.
16/5/10	The tunrout rate of the Legislative Council by-election is less than 20%.
3/5/10	The Urban Renewal Authority announces 8 new measures on property sales.
1/5/10	Hong Kong and Macau demonstrates on May 1.
21/4/10	The HKSAR Government announces guidelines to regulate property sales arrangement.
14/4/10	The Constitutional Reform Proposal in 2012 is unveiled by HKSAR government.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that in the second quarter of 2010, people's dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Legco members continues to increase. Dissatisfaction rate has reached 51% which is record high since the handover. Legco members' net popularity now stands at negative 32 percentage points, probably due to discussions over political reform. (Note: The net popularity of the SAR Government for the same period is negative 13 percentage points, as published before.) As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have not changed much, but their dissatisfaction of the former has significantly increased. The latest net popularity of the two forces are positive 56 and positive 52 percentage points respectively. The dissatisfaction rate of the latter continues to remain near zero. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. Exactly how public opinion will develop after the political reform proposal is passed remains to be seen."

Future Release (Tentative)

July 13, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and Principal Officials