HKU POP SITE releases people's appraisal of society's conditionsBack

Press Release on July 6, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong people from June 18 to 22, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that as the economy recovers, people's concern over economic issues has continued to drop for 18 months, both in terms of absolute ratings or relative percentages, while their concern over livelihood and political issues have increased significantly over the past 6 months. In terms of relative percentages, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has significantly increased by 12 percentage points to reach a new high since June 2007, while that of economic problems has plummeted by 13 percentage points to a record low since October 1993. In terms of absolute ratings, the concern ratings of livelihood and political problems are both at their record highs since our rating survey began in 2005, while that of economic problem is at its record low since 2005. As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction level of the current economic condition now stands at positive 6 percentage points, that of livelihood condition now stands at negative 21 percentage points, and that of political condition stands at negative 23 percentage points. Exactly how public opinion will develop after the political reform proposal is passed remains to be seen. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 66.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-22/6/2010	1,009	66.7%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	24-26/6/08	23-29/12/08	23-26/6/09	28-30/12/09	18-22/6/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,031	1,022	1,008	1,028	1,009	--
Overall response rate	72.1%	72.8%	70.0%	66.5%	66.7%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[7]	35%	31%^[10]	42%^[10]	42%	54+/-3%	+12%^[10]
Most concerned with economic problems	56%	63%^[10]	52%^[10]	44%^[10]	31+/-3%	-13%^[10]
Most concerned with political problems	4%	5%	4%	12%^[10]	12+/-2%	--
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[7]	6.99	7.30^[10]	7.28	7.24	7.38+/-0.12	+0.14^[10]
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.21	7.52^[10]	7.24^[10]	7.19	7.05+/-0.12	-0.14^[10]
Rating on concern for political problems	5.50	5.73^[10]	5.56^[10]	5.62	5.90+/-0.14	+0.28^[10]
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	31%	22%^[10]	22%	35%^[10]	41+/-3%	+6%^[10]
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	34%	47%^[10]	37%^[10]	36%	35+/-3%	-1%
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[7]^[9]	40%	35%^[10]	33%	37%^[10]	28+/-3%	-9%^[10]
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[7]^[9]	27%	31%^[10]	33%	33%	49+/-3%	+16%^[10]
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	30%	29%	22%^[10]	22%	26+/-3%	+4%^[10]
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	33%	36%	38%	48%^[10]	49+/-3%	+1%

[7] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were "social problems" and "social condition". We take them to mean the same as "livelihood problems" and "livelihood condition" in the survey context.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale..
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The survey conducted in the second half of June showed that 54% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 31% with economic problems, while 12% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.38, 7.05 and 5.90 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions were 41%, 28% and 26% respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 28 to 30, 2009 while this survey was conducted from June 18 to 22, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the progress of the voting of the political reform package.
19/6/10	Many newspapers report and discuss the political reform proposal suggested by Democratic Party.
17/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the TV debate on political reform.
1/6/10	Hong Kong Government consults public on whether to subsidize home ownership.
29/5/10	Government principal officials promote political reform package to the public.
20/5/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang invites Audrey Eu to a TV debate on political reform.
16/5/10	The tunrout rate of the Legislative Council by-election is less than 20%.
6/5/10	Many newspapers report and discuss the housing policy in Hong Kong.
19/4/10	Stock markets in China and Hong Kong plummet
18/3/10	The first minimum wage level will be set in July.
15/3/10	The government launches all remaining flats of Home Ownership Scheme and sandwich-class homes to meet the housing demand.
24/2/10	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers a budget speech.
29/1/10	Three killed, two injured and two missing in the collapse of an old building at 45 Ma Tau Wai Road.
26/1/10	Five pan-democratic Legislative councillors resign.
16/1/10	The Express Rail Link funding is passed.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our latest half-yearly survey, as the economy recovers, people's concern over economic issues has continued to drop for 18 months, both in terms of absolute ratings or relative percentages, while their concern over livelihood and political issues have increased significantly over the past 6 months. In terms of relative percentages, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has significantly increased by 12 percentage points to reach a new high since June 2007, while that of economic problems has plummeted by 13 percentage points to a record low since October 1993. In terms of absolute ratings, the concern ratings of livelihood and political problems are both at their record highs since our rating survey began in 2005, while that of economic problem is at its record low since 2005. As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction level of the current economic condition now stands at positive 6 percentage points, that of livelihood condition now stands at negative 21 percentage points, and that of political condition stands at negative 23 percentage points. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page, and exactly how public opinion will develop after the political reform proposal is passed remains to be seen."

Future Releases (Tentative)

July 8, 2010 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legco members, the Police and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison
July 13, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and Principal Officials