HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on June 29, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong people between 18 and 22 June, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that CE Donald Tsang's popularity remains low before Legco voted on the political reform, as his support rating remains under 50 marks for four consecutive times and his disapproval rate exceeds 50% for three consecutive times. His net popularity now stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's general satisfaction rate has increased significantly, and its net popularity now stands at negative 13 percentage points. However, compared to 3 months ago, dissatisfaction rate has increased by 9 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, also compared to 3 months ago, other than maintaining economic prosperity, the dissatisfaction rates of all items have increased to new highs over the past 6 to 7 years. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 21 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 3 percentage points, protection of human rights at negative 3 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 13 percentage points and improving people's livelihood at negative 27 percentage points. The government obviously has to do more to improve people's livelihood and developing democracy. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.5 marks. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 66.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-22/6/2010	1,009	66.7%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	26-29/4/2010	30/4-6/5/2010	18-20/5/2010	1-3/6/2010	18-22/6/2010	Latest Change
Sample base	1,010	1,031	1,015	1,010	1,009	--
Overall response rate	69.5%	72.4%	72.5%	67.9%	66.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.8	49.2^[9]	49.0	49.2	48.5+/-1.5	-0.7
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	37%	34%	33%	35%	33+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	46%	48%	51%	51%	51+/-3%	--
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	28%	--	25%	--	31+/-3%	+6%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	38%	--	43%^[9]	--	44+/-3%	+1%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in the second half of June showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.5 marks, and 33% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 51% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 31% were satisfied, whereas 44% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	16-21/6/2009	14-17/9/2009	14-17/12/2009	23-25/3/2010	18-22/6/2010	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base	1,012	1,004	1,000	1,012	1,009	--
Overall response rate	69.0%	65.4%	70.5%	69.3%	66.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	56%	50%^[12]	60%^[12]	50%^[12]	49+/-3%	-1%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	15%	20%^[12]	14%^[12]	22%^[12]	28+/-3%	+6%^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	35%^[12]	37%	37%	35%	40+/-3%	+5%^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	27%^[12]	28%	33%^[12]	34%	37+/-3%	+3%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	40%^[12]	43%	45%	42%	38+/-3%	-4%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	28%^[12]	29%	28%	34%^[12]	41+/-3%	+7%^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	28%^[12]	28%	32%^[12]	29%	32+/-3%	+3%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	38%	41%	42%	43%	45+/-3%	+2%
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	30%^[12]	28%	24%^[12]	23%	26+/-3%	+3%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	35%^[12]	40%^[12]	47%^[12]	49%	53+/-3%	+4%^[12]

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 49%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 40%. Finally, a respective of 38%, 32% and 26% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in protecting human rights, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 23 to 25, 2010 while this survey was conducted from June 18 to 22, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/6/10	Many newspaper on the following day report and discuss the progress of the voting of the political reform package.
21/6/10	Democratic Party support political reform package through internal election.
19/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the political reform proposal suggested by Democratic Party.
17/6/10	Many newspapers on the following day report and discuss the TV debate on political reform.
14/6/10	Collapsed tree in Shatin leaves a person in a critical condition.
7/6/10	Chinese Central government responds to the definition of universal suffrage and the request of political reform.
1/6/10	Hong Kong Government consults public on whether to subsidize home ownership.
29/5/10	Government principal officials promote political reform package to the public.
24/5/10	Central government liaison office meet with the Democratic Party to talk about Hong Kong political development.
20/5/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang invites Audrey Eu to a TV debate on political reform.
16/5/10	The turnout rate of the Legislative Council by-election is less than 20%.
3/5/10	The Urban Renewal Authority announces 8 new measures on property sales.
14/4/10	The Constitutional Reform Proposal in 2012 is unveiled by HKSAR government.
12/4/10	HK Government proposes three rules to tighten control on flat sales.
7/4/10	China/Guangdong and Hong Kong signed the Framework Agreement.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our survey conducted before Legco voted on the political reform proposal shows that CE Donald Tsang's popularity remains low, as his support rating remains under 50 marks for four consecutive times and his disapproval rate exceeds 50% for three consecutive times. His net popularity now stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's general satisfaction rate has increased significantly, and its net popularity now stands at negative 13 percentage points. However, compared to 3 months ago, dissatisfaction rate has increased by 9 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, also compared to 3 months ago, other than maintaining economic prosperity, the dissatisfaction rates of all items have increased to new highs over the past 6 to 7 years. In terms of net satisfaction rate, the net values of the 5 indicators are: relationship with the Central Government at positive 21 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 3 percentage points, protection of human rights at negative 3 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 13 percentage points and improving people's livelihood at negative 27 percentage points. The government obviously has to do more to improve people's livelihood and developing democracy. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

June 30, 2010 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR Anniversary Surveys
July 6, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Appraisal of society's current conditions