HKU POP SITE releases Hong Kong people's ethnic identity figures Back

Press Release on June 22, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong people between 9 and 13 June, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that Hong Kong people's feeling is strongest as "members of the Chinese race", followed by "Hong Kong citizens", then "Chinese citizens", "Asians", "global citizens", and finally "citizens of PRC". Compared to six months ago, people's feelings as "members of the Chinese race", "Asians" and "global citizens" have become stronger, but all changes are within error margins. People's feelings as "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "citizens of PRC" have all dropped. Among them, the drop in "Hong Kong citizens" is significant, while that of "citizens of PRC" is a big one. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 68.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.26 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings of people's opinions towards ethnic identity. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]	Sampling error of ethnicity indices^[6]
9-13/6/2010	1,004	68.2%	+/-3%	+/-2.5

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent figures on Hong Kong people's sense of ethnic identity are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	9-12/12/08	8-13/6/09	8-11/12/09	9-13/6/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,016	1,002	1,007	1,004	--
Overall response rate	69.3%	67.7%	69.2%	68.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Identified themselves as "Hong Kong citizens"	22%^[9]	25%	38%^[9]	25+/-3%	-13%^[9]
Identified themselves as "Chinese citizens"	34%^[9]	29%^[9]	24% ^[9]	28+/-3%	+4%^[9]
Identified themselves with a mixed identity of "Hong Kong citizens" plus "Chinese citizens"^[8]	43%	45%	37%^[9]	46+/-3%	+9%^[9]
Identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in broad sense	51%^[9]	57%^[9]	61%^[9]	57+/-3%	-4%^[9]
Identified themselves as "Chinese People" in broad sense	47%^[9]	43%^[9]	37%^[9]	43+/-3%	+6%^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] This means the percentage of "Chinese Hong Kong citizens" plus "Hong Kong Chinese citizens".
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

When asked to make a choice among 4 given identities, namely, "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "Hong Kong Chinese citizens", 25% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong citizens", 28% as "Chinese citizens", 31% as "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", while 15% identified themselves as "Hong Kong Chinese citizens". In other words, 57% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Hong Kong citizens" or "Chinese Hong Kong citizens"), whereas 43% identified themselves as "Chinese People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Chinese citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese citizens"), 46% chose a mixed identity of "Hong Kong citizens plus Chinese citizens" (i.e. either as "Chinese Hong Kong citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese citizens").

Because the concepts of "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "Hong Kong Chinese citizens" may overlap with each other, and making a one-in-four choice may not reflect the actual strengths of one's ethnic identities, POP has right from the beginning conducted parallel tests on the strengths of people's separate identities as "Hong Kong citizens" and "Chinese citizens" using a scale of 0-10. In June 2007, POP expanded its study to include four new identities for strength rating, namely, "citizens of PRC", "members of the Chinese race", "Asians" and "global citizens". In December 2008, the study was further expanded by including separate importance ratings for different identities, and the compilation of a separate index for each identity using geometric means. Herewith the latest results:

Date of survey		9-12/12/08		8-13/6/09		8-11/12/09		9-13/6/10		Latest change
Sample base^[11]		547-633		523-565		525-563		531-558		--
Finding		Finding		Finding		Finding		Finding and error^[10]		--
Strength rating of being "Members of the Chinese race"	Identity index of being "Members of the Chinese race" ^[13]	7.84^[12]	75.9	7.73	74.8	7.78	75.2	7.87 +/-0.20	76.1 +/-1.9	+0.09	+0.9
Importance rating of being "Members of the Chinese race" ^[13]		7.50		7.39		7.40		7.49 +/-0.21		+0.09
Strength rating of being "Hong Kong citizens"	Identity index of being "Hong Kong citizens" ^[13]	7.99^[12]	75.3	7.83	74.9	8.14^[12]	76.7	7.90 +/-0.18	74.8 +/-1.8	-0.24^[12]	-1.9^[12]
Importance rating of being "Hong Kong citizens" ^[13]		7.32		7.38		7.44		7.38 +/-0.20		-0.06
Strength rating of being "Chinese citizens"	Identity index of being "Chinese citizens" ^[13]	7.79^[12]	76.1	7.72	75.9	7.79	76.1	7.63 +/-0.20	74.5 +/-2.0	-0.16	-1.6
Importance rating of being "Chinese citizens" ^[13]		7.56		7.57		7.59		7.42 +/-0.21		-0.17
Strength rating of being "Asians"	Identity index of being "Asians" ^[13]	7.68^[12]	72.0	7.79	72.0	7.80	72.9	7.96 +/-0.19	73.4 +/-2.0	+0.16	+0.5
Importance rating of being "Asians" ^[13]		6.98		6.95		7.03		7.07 +/-0.23		+0.04
Strength rating of being "global citizens"	Identity index of being "global citizens" ^[13]	6.75^[12]	64.7	6.74	64.7	6.73	64.5	6.87 +/-0.25	65.6 +/-2.2	+0.14	+1.1
Importance rating of being "global citizens" ^[13]		6.44		6.45		6.39		6.51 +/-0.26		+0.12
Strength rating of being "citizens of PRC"	Identity index of being "citizens of PRC" ^[13]	6.88	67.4	6.99	68.2	6.92	66.9	6.38 +/-0.25	61.6 +/-2.5	-0.54^[12]	-5.3^[12]
Importance rating of being "citizens of PRC" ^[13]		6.78		6.83		6.71		6.20 +/-0.25		-0.51^[12]

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.26 and sampling error of identity indices not more than +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Since December 2008, the sub-sample size of these questions is controlled at slightly over 500 cases.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] New items since December 2008. "Identity index" is calculated for each identity of a respondent by taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings of a certain identity, multiply by 10. If either the strength or importance rating of a respondent is missing, it is substituted by the sample mean of that identity.

Latest findings showed that the identity ratings for "Asians", "Hong Kong citizens", "members of the Chinese race" and "Chinese citizens" were 7.96, 7.90, 7.87 and 7.63 marks respectively. Using the same rating method, the strength of people's identity as "global citizens" and "citizens of PRC" were 6.87 and 6.38 marks respectively. As for the importance ratings, "members of the Chinese race" "Chinese citizens" and "Hong Kong citizens" scored 7.49, 7.42 and 7.38 marks respectively, while those for "Asians", "global citizens" and "citizens of PRC" were 7.07, 6.51 and 6.20 marks respectively.

Taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings of each respondent and then multiply it by 10, we have an "identity index" for the respondent for a certain identity between 0 and 100, with 0 meaning no feeling, 100 meaning extremely strong feeling, and 50 meaning half and half. Using these identity indices, the rank order of Hong Kong people's six identities were "members of the Chinese race", "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens", "Asians", "global citizens" and "citizens of PRC". Their scores were 76.1, 74.8, 74.5, 73.4, 65.6 and 61.6 marks respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 8 to 11, 2009 while this survey was conducted from June 9 to 13, 2010. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

10/6/10	The 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa begins today.
6/6/10	Government principal officials promote political reform package to the public again.
24/5/10	Central government liaison office meet with the Democratic Party to talk about Hong Kong political development.
20/5/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang invites Audrey Eu to a TV debate on political reform.
17/5/10	Many newspapers on the following day follow and discuss the impacts of the Legislative Council by-election on Hong Kong's political development.
5/5/10	The debt crisis in Europe affects the financial stability of the world.
30/4/10	The Shanghai World Expo 2010 opens.
18/4/10	Wong Fuk-wing's body is brought back to Hong Kong from Qinhai.
31/3/10	The Hong Kong-Taiwan Economic and Cultural Co-operation and Promotion Council is established.
14/3/10	Premier Wen Jiabao elaborates on 'deep-rooted conflicts' in Hong Kong.
16/1/10	The Express Rail Link funding is passed.
15/1/10	Beijing Government issues warning on the de facto referendum
25/12/09	Liu Xiaobo is sentenced to 11 years in prison for "incitement to subvert state power".
19/12/09	President Hu Jintao arrives Macau to attend the 10th anniversary ceremony, while some reporters from Hong Kong are banned to enter Macau.
12/12/09	Hong Kong football team wins over Japan in the East Asian Games.

Commentary

Robert Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "For years we have been measuring Hong Kong people's sense of ethnic identity. We use a parallel method of measurement, which comprises a simple dichotomy of "Hong Kong citizens" versus "Chinese citizens", plus parallel ratings of the absolute strength of different identities. In December 2008, we added the dimension of importance to each of these ratings and compiled different "identity indices" ranging between 0 and 100. The higher the index, the stronger would be an identity. Take our latest survey as an example, Hong Kong people's feeling is strongest as "members of the Chinese race", followed by "Hong Kong citizens", then "Chinese citizens", "Asians", "global citizens", and finally "citizens of PRC". Compared to six months ago, people's feelings as "members of the Chinese race", "Asians" and "global citizens" have become stronger, but all changes are within error margins. People's feelings as "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "citizens of PRC" have all dropped. Among them, the drop in "Hong Kong citizens" is significant, while that of "citizens of PRC" is a big one. As for the reasons behind the ups and downs of these figures, we will leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

June 29, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SARG
June 30, 2010 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey