HKU POP SITE releases the follow-up survey after the TV debate on political reformBack

Press Release on June 21, 2010

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 544 Hong Kong citizens on June 18 to 20, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that when people realize that the central and local governments may accept the "one person two votes" revision suggested by the Democratic Party, opposition sharply declines. Comparing to the result of the instant poll answered by the actual audience, opposition rates have dropped 12 to 13 percentage points. Comparing to the results obtained a week before the debate, they have dropped significantly between 3 to 6 percentage points. It should be stressed, however, that although those in support of the reform package is on the upper hand, there is no simple majority and opinion is still clearly split. As to whether the government should withdraw its proposal first and then consult its opponents, or that it should accept the revisions proposed by the Democratic Party and then proceed to vote as scheduled, our findings show that over half support both suggestions, at around 60% and 55% respectively, and both with around 20% opposition. This shows that people in general support both suggestions. Director of POP Robert Chung stressed that POP does not campaign for any group, or provide escort for any particular reform proposal, but will hold tight to its post as a useful opinion data provider, amidst the ever changing political climate. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 544 successful interviews, not 544 x 67.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Background

For years, HKUPOP has been conducting Policy Address and Budget instant surveys, in order to gauge people's instant reactions. These surveys would be repeated later to measure people's follow-up reactions. POP believes this is a better way to measure public opinion. On June 17, 2010, Chief Executive Donald Tsang and the Leader of Civic Party Audrey Eu debated with each other on political reform. Out of our sense of social responsibility, POP conducted an instant poll during the debate, to measure people's appraisal of the debaters, and changes in their support of the reform proposal. During the survey, all findings were fed instantly to the media sponsors for immediate use. On June 19, 48 hours after the debate, all findings were uploaded onto the HKUPOP Site as usual for public consumption. On June 18, one day after the debate, we began to conduct our post-debate follow-up survey, in order to track people's support for the reform proposal. Incidentally, some media reported that the central and local governments might accept the "one person two votes" proposal suggested by the Democratic Party. POP therefore took this opportunity to add one more question to the survey, in order to test people's reaction, and also to provide timely data for public consumption.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings of people's opinions towards political reform. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-20/6/2010	544	67.9%	+/-4%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest findings are as follows:

Date of survey	8-10/6/2010	17/6/2010	18-20/6/2010	Latest change
Sample base	1,026	509^[8]	544	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	78.5%	67.9%	--
Sampling error of percentages(95% confidence level)^[7]	+/-3%	+/-4%	+/-4%	--
Q1. Regarding the political reform proposal, if you have the right to vote, will you pass or veto the 2012 Chief Executive election of political reform proposal?^[9]
Should pass	49+/-3%	37+/-4%	47+/-4%	+10%^[13]
Should veto	42+/-3%	52+/-4%	39+/-4%	-13%^[13]
Don't know/ Hard to say	9+/-2%	11+/-3%	14+/-3%	+3%
Q2. Then how about the 2012 Legco election of political reform proposal?^[10]
Should pass	49+/-3%	40+/-4%	47+/-4%	+7%^[13]
Should veto	42+/-3%	48+/-4%	36+/-4%	-12%^[13]
Don't know/ Hard to say	10+/-2%	12+/-3%	17+/-3%	+5%^[13]
Q3. It is suggested that the Chief Executive should withdraw the political reform proposal first, and then consult the opposing parties on how to amend them. How much do you agree or disagree with this suggestion?^[11]^[12]
Agree	65+/-3%	--	60+/-4%	-5%^[13]
Half-half	2+/-1%	--	6+/-2%	+4%^[13]
Oppose	25+/-3%	--	22+/-4%	-3%
Don't know/ Hard to say	8+/-2%	--	12+/-3%	+4%^[13]
Mean value	3.7+/-0.1 (Base=941)	--	3.6+/-0.1 (Base=474)	-0.1
Q4. There is another suggestion that is the Chief Executive should accept the revised proposal suggested by the Democratic Party, and to pass the bill at Legco as scheduled. How much do you agree or disagree with this suggestion?^[12]
Agree	--		54+/-4%	--
Half-half	--		9+/-2%	--
Oppose	--		19+/-3%	--
Don't know/ Hard to say	--		17+/-3%	--
Mean value	--		3.5+/-0.1 (Base=447)	--

[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Target respondents of Political Reform Debate Instant survey are those who watched or listened to the debate. Please refer to contact information of related survey at POP Site.
[9] The first stage of the survey was sponsored by now News Channel, the question is "After having balanced all the factors, do you think the Legco should pass or veto the proposal of CE election in 2012" and the result was released on June 14. The second stage survey was the instant survey of political reform TV debate, the question is "If you have the right to vote, will you pass or veto the proposal of CE election 2012" and the result was released on June 19. Both questions are slightly different but the figures are comparable.
[10] The first stage of the survey was sponsored by now News Channel, the question is "After having balanced all the factors, do you think the Legco should pass or veto the proposal of Legco election in 2012?" and the result was released on June 14. The second stage survey was the instant survey of political reform TV debate, the question is "then how about the proposal of Legco election 2012?" and the result was released on June 19. Both questions are slightly different but the figures are comparable.
[11] The first stage of the survey was sponsored by Community Development Initiative, the question is "Do you agree or disagree that the Chief Executive should withdraw the political reform proposal first, and then consult the opposing parties on how to amend them?" and the result was released on June 16. The question asked in the second stage of survey is more or less the same.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest findings show that, 47% of the respondents regarded the Legislative Councillors should pass the 2012 Chief Executive election of political reform proposal while 39% thought they should veto it. Regarding the 2012 Legislative Council election of political reform proposal, 47% of the respondents regarded this should be passed and 36% thought that it should be vetoed. In addition, 60% agreed that the Chief Executive should withdraw the current political reform proposal and then consult the opposing parties on how to amend them, while 22% disagreed. Finally, when asked whether the Chief Executive should accept the revised political reform proposal suggested by the Democratic Party, and the proposal will be passed by the Legco as scheduled. A respective of 54% and 19% of respondents agreed and disagreed.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Amidst the political turbulence swirling in Hong Kong, and stemming from our sense of social responsibility, POP is again providing timely and scientific opinion data for public consumption.

On June 17, 2010, during the debate on political reform between Donald Tsang and Audrey Eu, POP conducted an instant poll to gauge audience' appraisal of the performance of the debaters, and their views on the political reform proposal. One day later, POP began to conduct a follow-up survey, to measure again people's support for the reform package, and how they think the government should react to opposing views.

Our latest survey shows that when people realize that the central and local governments may accept the "one person two votes" revision suggested by the Democratic Party, opposition sharply declines. Comparing to the result of the instant poll answered by the actual audience, opposition rates have dropped 12 to 13 percentage points. Comparing to the results obtained a week before the debate, they have dropped significantly between 3 to 6 percentage points. It should be stressed, however, that although those in support of the reform package is on the upper hand, there is no simple majority and opinion is still clearly split.

As to whether the government should withdraw its proposal first and then consult its opponents, or that it should accept the revisions proposed by the Democratic Party and then proceed to vote as scheduled, our findings show that over half support both suggestions, at around 60% and 55% respectively, and both with around 20% opposition. This shows that people in general support both suggestions.

This said, my comments made 7 days ago still stands. I wrote, "People's views on the political reform package is very much based on general impressions, rather than concrete knowledge… Because general impression is so important, people's general demand on the pace of democracy becomes an important consideration… Although people have accepted the elimination of universal suffrage in 2012, they still want it to happen as early as possible… Hong Kong people are still rather skeptical of the promises made by the Central Government…"

POP does not campaign for any group, or provide escort for any particular reform proposal. I only want to hold tight to my post as a useful opinion data provider, amidst the ever changing political climate.