HKU POP SITE releases the latest trust and confidence indicators, and people's views on Taiwan and Tibet issuesBack

Press Release on June 15, 2010

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |

Special Announcement

To fulfill its social responsibility, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey during the TV debate between Chief Executive Donald Tsang and Civic Party leader Audrey Eu on June 17 (this Thursday), in order to track people's appraisal of their performance during the debate, and people's support for the policy reform package. During the debate, all media sponsors will continuously receive statistical updates. After the debate and before midnight, all media sponsors will receive many more cross-tabulation in-depth analyses, which will be embargoed for publication until 3am. POP considers this to be the best arrangement to balance the interests of all media sponsors (including electronic, print and online media). All results will be released for public consumption via our "POP site" 48 hours after the debate ends.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong people between 9 and 13 June, 2010 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR and Central governments, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China, "$1" itself and its applicability to Taiwan, have all gone down to new lows in recent years. People's net trust in the HKSAR and Central governments now stand at positive 10 percentage points, while their net trust in the Taiwan government now stands at negative 25 percentage points. People's net confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and "$1" now stand at positive 25, 70 and 18 percentage points respectively. On the other hand, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet continue to remain high at over 70%. While people's support and opposition rates of Taiwan rejoining the United Nations have not changed much, thereby maintaining a split in opinion, their confidence in reunification across the strait has gone up significantly, with a net confidence standing at positive 16 percentage points. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 68.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems", and Taiwan and Tibet issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
9-13/6/2010	1,004	68.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

(1) Trust and confidence indicators

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	25-30/8/09	20-30/10/09	28-30/12/09	1-3/3/10	9-13/6/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,005	1,028	1,005	1,004	--
Overall response rate	64.9%	73.1%	66.5%	64.2%	68.2%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[8]	46%^[9]	45%	48%	46%	41+/-3%	-5%^[9]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[8]	14%	28%^[9]	20%^[9]	26%^[9]	31+/-3%	+5%^[9]
Trust in Beijing Government^[8]	48%	52%^[9]	49%	48%	42+/-3%	-6%^[9]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[8]	16%	19%^[9]	21%	29%^[9]	32+/-3%	+3%
Trust in Taiwan Government^[8]	17%	22%^[9]	14%^[9]	16%	18+/-2%	+2%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[8]	35%^[9]	38%	41%	49%^[9]	43+/-3%	-6%^[9]
Confidence in HK's future	71%	67%^[9]	68%	68%	60+/-3%	-8%[9]
No-confidence in HK's future	24%	26%	26%	27%	35+/-3%	+8%^[9]
Confidence in China's future	88%	87%	86%	86%	83+/-2%	-3%^[9]
No-confidence in China's future	8%	8%	9%	10%	13+/-2%	+3%^[9]
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	71%	67%^[9]	66%	64%	57+/-3%	-7%^[9]
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	25%^[9]	26%	28%	31%	39+/-3%	+8%^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 41% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 42% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 60% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 83% had confidence in China's future, while 57% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

(2) Taiwan and Tibet Issues

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan and Tibet issues are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	8-13/6/09	7-13/9/09	8-11/12/09	9-15/3/10	9-13/6/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,002	1,002	1,007	1,004	1,004	--
Overall response rate	67.7%	69.7%	69.2%	66.4%	68.2%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[10]	--
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	75%^[11]	78%	75%	71%^[11]	73+/-3%	+2%
Taiwan independence: Support rate	16%^[11]	12%^[11]	14%	14%	17+/-2%	+3%^[11]
Tibet independence: Opposition rate	75%	76%	74%	72%	71+/-3%	-1%
Tibet independence: Support rate	12%	9%^[11]	13%^[11]	11%	14+/-2%	+3%^[11]
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	57%	57%	62%^[11]	49%^[11]	53+/-3%	+4%^[11]
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	34%	32%	27%^[11]	40%^[11]	37+/-3%	-3%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	51%^[11]	42%^[11]	40%	42%	41+/-3%	-1%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	32%^[11]	40%^[11]	44%^[11]	41%	43+/-3%	+2%
Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan	59%	53%^[11]	55%	53%	46+/-3%	-7%^[11]
Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan	31%	34%	32%	35%	41+/-3%	+6%^[11]

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 73% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 17% showed support. Meanwhile, 71% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 14% held a positive view. Besides, 53% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 37% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 41% supported Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 43% opposed it. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 46% gave a positive view while 41% gave a negative answer.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 1 to 3, 2010 while this survey was conducted from June 9 to 13, 2010. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/6/10	Chinese Central government responds to the definition of universal suffrage and the request of political reform.
6/6/10	Government principal officials promote political reform package to the public again.
1/6/10	Hong Kong Government consults public on whether to subsidize home ownership.
29/5/10	Government principal officials promote political reform package to the public.
24/5/10	Central government liaison office meet with the Democratic Party to talk about Hong Kong political development.
20/5/10	Chief Executive Donald Tsang invites Audrey Eu to a TV debate on political reform.
16/5/10	The tunrout rate of the Legislative Council by-election is less than 20%.
3/5/10	The Urban Renewal Authority announces 8 new measures on property sales.
30/4/10	The Shanghai World Expo 2010 opens.
19/4/10	Stock markets in China and Hong Kong plummet
14/4/10	The Constitutional Reform Proposal in 2012 is unveiled by HKSAR government.
7/4/10	China/Guangdong and Hong Kong signed the Framework Agreement.
6/4/10	Sheunghai Mayor Han Zheng visit Taiwan to sign the memoranda of a new mode of exchange and cooperation between Sheunghai and Taiwan.
31/3/10	The Hong Kong-Taiwan Economic and Cultural Co-operation and Promotion Council is established.
14/3/10	Premier Wen Jiabao elaborates on 'deep-rooted conflicts' in Hong Kong.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR and Central governments, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China, "one country, two systems' itself and its applicability to Taiwan, have all gone down to new lows in recent years. People's net trust in the HKSAR and Central governments now stand at positive 10 percentage points, while their net trust in the Taiwan government now stands at negative 25 percentage points. People's net confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and "$1" now stand at positive 25, 70 and 18 percentage points respectively. On the other hand, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet continue to remain high at over 70%. While people's support and opposition rates of Taiwan rejoining the United Nations have not changed much, thereby maintaining a split in opinion, their confidence in reunification across the strait has gone up significantly, with a net confidence standing at positive 16 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 『Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

June 22, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's ethnic identity