HKU POP SITE releases findings of the latest annual June Fourth surveyBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong today releases for public consumption the "Legislative Council By-election Exit Poll Survey" conducted independently by POP on May 16, 2010. Part of the expenses of the survey was sponsored by Now TV, Cable News and RTHK. All interviewers used a smartphone freely provided by BlackBerry® to collect data, while the interface for data transmission was jointly developed by POP and BlackBerry®. Moreover, POP and all participating media sponsors had signed an "Exit Poll Charter" prior to the survey, details of which are also released today.

HKUPOP interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong people between 18 and 20 May by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the percentages of Hong Kong people sympathetic with the Beijing students, blaming the Central Government and supporting a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth have remained very stable after a significant increase registered last year. The corresponding percentages are 56%, 68% and 61% respectively. Besides, 63% consider China's human right condition has improved since 1989 while almost 50% are optimistic about future development. However, although the positive figures of both items remain to be the obvious majority, they have plummeted dramatically by 15 percentage points when compared with last year's survey. The former has receded to the level registered in 2000 while the latter has reached a record low since 1996. As on the apparent contradiction between economic and democratic development, our survey finds that a significant majority of Hong Kong people consider themselves responsible for promoting both economic and democratic development in China, although more opt for economic development. The difference is 78% versus 75% this year, which is very small. If one had to choose one between the two, the ratio becomes 37% versus 32% in favour of economic development. This difference is the smallest one registered across our 18 anniversary surveys. On the other hand, when asked to balance the priority between economic and democratic development for China, the ratio becomes 36% versus 38% in favour of democratic development, for the first time in 18 years. Summarizing all our latest findings, Hong Kong people's satisfaction of China's human right condition has receded. People wish China to strengthen its democratic development, but where Hong Kong people's responsibility is concerned, the priority still lies in economic development. Finally, our survey finds that the support rating of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China is 47.6 marks, it has remained under 50 marks for 11 consecutive anniversary surveys. Nevertheless, nearly 60% disagree to the dissolution of the Alliance. It seems that Hong Kong people's feeling towards the Alliance is no less complex than that towards June Fourth. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.6. The response rate of the survey is 73%.

Points to note:

[1]The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,015 successful interviews, 1,015 x 72.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.6. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" the findings of the latest annual June Fourth survey. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]
18-20/5/2010	1,015	72.5%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Figures of latest annual June Fourth survey are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-25/5/06	16-25/5/07	28/5-2/6/08	19-22/5/09	18-20/5/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,022	1,008	1,007	1,011	1,015	--
Overall response rate	62.0%	61.1%	67.2%	68.3%	72.5%	--
Finding for each question/Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	--
Proportion of respondents believing:
The Beijing students did the right thing	53%	50%	50%	56%[8]	56+/-3%	--
The Beijing students did the wrong thing	22%	19%[8]	15%[8]	19%[8]	18+/-2%	-1%
The Chinese Government did the right thing	18%[8]	13%	15%	13%	14+/-2%	+1%
The Chinese Government did the wrong thing	63%	63%[8]	58%[8]	69%[8]	68+/-3%	-1%
There should be a reversion of the official stand on the incident	56%	55%[8]	49%[8]	61%[8]	61+/-3%	--
There should not be a reversion of the official stand on the incident	28%[8]	24%	26%	22%[8]	23+/-3%	+1%
China's human right condition has improved since 1989	80%[8]	78%[8]	85%[8]	78%[8]	63+/-3%	-15%[8]
China's human right condition has worsened since 1989	3%	4%[8]	2%[8]	5%[8]	13+/-2%	+8%[8]
China's human right condition would improve after 3 years	69%	67%[8]	77%[8]	63%[8]	48+/-3%	-15%[8]
China's human right condition would worsen after 3 years	3%	3%	2%	4%[8]	10+/-2%	+6%[8]
HK people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China	76%	75%	76%	78%	75+/-3%	-3%
HK people have no responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China	17%	16%	14%	16%	17+/-2%	+1%
HK people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China	83%	82%	81%	81%	78+/-3%	-3%
HK people have no responsibility to instigate economic development in China	11%	12%	11%	14%[8]	17+/-2%	+3%[8]
HK people should put more effort on instigating economic than democratic development in China	45%	44%	42%	39%	37+/-3%	-2%
HK people should put more effort on instigating democratic than economic development in China	27%	26%	23%	29%[8]	32+/-3%	+3%
China should emphasize more on economic development	47%	45%	46%	46%	36+/-3%	-10%[8]
China should emphasize more on democratic development	28%	29%	27%	31%[8]	38+/-3%	+7%[8]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

This year's survey findings revealed that 56% of the respondents believed that the Beijing students did the right thing in 1989, while 18% believed that they did the wrong thing. Meanwhile, with regard to the way the Chinese Government handled the matter at that time, 14% regarded it as correct and 68% regarded it as wrong.

The findings also showed that 61% of the respondents supported a reversion of the official stand on the incident while 23% did not. Regarding the human right condition in China, 63% of the respondents believed that China's human right condition has been improved since 1989, and 48% anticipated that China's human right condition will be improved after 3 years.

Moreover, 75% of the respondents believed that Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China, whereas on the economic aspect, 78% believed that Hong Kong people had such a responsibility. When comparing democratic and economic development, 37% of the respondents believed Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating economic development in China, while 32% of the respondents put more weight on the development of democracy. Furthermore, 36% believed that China should emphasize more on its economic development, while 38% believed that China should emphasize more on the development of democracy. Latest figures regarding the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China ("the Alliance") are as follows:

Date of survey	16-25/5/07	20-22/5/08[10]	28/5-2/6/08	19-22/5/09	18-20/5/10	Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,023	1,007	1,011	1,015	--
Overall response rate	61.1%	67.1%	67.2%	68.3%	72.5%	--
Finding for each question/Sampling error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[9]	--
Popularity rating of the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China ("the Alliance")	46.9	46.4	--	48.0[11]	47.6+/-1.6	-0.4
The Alliance should be disbanded	21%	--	23%	17%[11]	16+/-2%	-1%
The Alliance should not be disbanded	49%	--	46%	60%[11]	58+/-3%	-2%

[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Popularity rating of the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China was recorded during the Rating Survey of the Top 10 Political Groups conducted between 20 and 22 May 2008.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Regarding the Alliance, 16% of the respondents said the Alliance should be disbanded, 58% said no. The latest popularity rating of the Alliance was 47.6 marks.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme observed, "This is the 18th anniversary survey on the June Fourth Incident conducted by POP, marking the 21st anniversary of June Fourth. According to our latest survey, the percentages of Hong Kong people sympathetic with the Beijing students, blaming the Central Government and supporting a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth have remained very stable after a significant increase registered last year. The corresponding percentages are 56%, 68% and 61% respectively. Besides, 63% consider China's human right condition has improved since 1989 while almost 50% are optimistic about future development. However, although the positive figures of both items remain to be the obvious majority, they have plummeted dramatically by 15 percentage points when compared with last year's survey. The former has receded to the level registered in 2000 while the latter has reached a record low since 1996. As on the apparent contradiction between economic and democratic development, our survey finds that a significant majority of Hong Kong people consider themselves responsible for promoting both economic and democratic development in China, although more opt for economic development. The difference is 78% versus 75% this year, which is very small. If one had to choose one between the two, the ratio becomes 37% versus 32% in favour of economic development. This difference is the smallest one registered across our 18 anniversary surveys. On the other hand, when asked to balance the priority between economic and democratic development for China, the ratio becomes 36% versus 38% in favour of democratic development, for the first time in 18 years. Summarizing all our latest findings, Hong Kong people's satisfaction of China's human right condition has receded. People wish China to strengthen its democratic development, but where Hong Kong people's responsibility is concerned, the priority still lies in economic development. Finally, our survey finds that the support rating of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China is 47.6 marks, it has remained under 50 marks for 11 consecutive anniversary surveys. Nevertheless, nearly 60% disagree to the dissolution of the Alliance. It seems that Hong Kong people's feeling towards the Alliance is no less complex than that towards June Fourth."

June Fourth is an important page in the contemporary history of China with a tremendous impact on both the development of Hong Kong and Mainland China. The June Fourth complex which deeply troubled Hong Kong people has dictated the results of many elections, as well as changed the course of Hong Kong's return to the motherland. Therefore, HKUPOP began to study Hong Kong people's opinions of June Fourth and human right conditions in China since 1993. This is the 18th anniversary survey in a row. We explained the development of this polling series in our press releases of May 31, 2007, June 3, 2008 and May 27, 2009. Today, we publish it again, so that readers can grasp such developments more comprehensively.

Starting from May 1993, we began this June Fourth survey. Ever since then, it is repeated once every year. The survey includes one question which we first used in 1992 before June 4, on the rating of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, and the wordings are, "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Alliance?" Other questions include "Do you think the Beijing students did the right thing in the June Fourth Incident?", "Do you think the Chinese Government did the right thing in the June Fourth Incident?", "Do you think the human right condition in China will be better or even worse in three years' time?", "Compared to 1989, do you think China's human right condition has become better or worse?", "Do you think Hong Kong people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China?", "Do you think Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating development in China's economy or democracy?", "Which do you think China needs more economic or democratic development?" and "Do you think the Alliance should be disbanded?"

In 1996, we added a question to survey people's opinion on whether Hong Kong people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China. In 1997, we added another question to see if people would support a reversion of the official stand on the June Fourth Incident.

Regarding sample size, from the beginning to May 1999, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

Our findings of previous surveys in May 1999 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.

• June 8, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity figures of CE and Principal Officials