HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups and rankings of political figuresBack

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that the ratings of all "Top 10 Political Groups" have dropped significantly. Many of them are either at new or record low. The row over political reform and full-fledged by-election has apparently taken its toll on all political parties. In terms of relative rankings, compared to three months ago, except the swap in positions of HKASPDMC and ADPL, now occupying the 3rd and 4th places, all other positions have remained unchanged. HKCTU continues to top the list, with FTU trailing behind. As for the ranking of political figures, according to our latest survey, Donald Tsang continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, support rates aside. Compared to 6 months ago, 8 people continue to remain on the 'top 10' list, with Regina Ip and Jasper Tsang having dropped out of the list and replaced by Szeto Wah and Alan Leong. Over the past 5 years, Donald Tsang, Martin Lee, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung and Audrey Eu are Hong Kong people's most familiar political figures. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.2 and +/-1.9 while the maximum sampling error of percentages of people's most familiar political figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the surveys are between 70% and 73%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 70.2% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,015 successful interviews, not 1,015 x 72.5% response rate. As for the survey on people's most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,015 successful cases, not 1,015 x 72.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups and the rankings of political figures. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year end.

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings[5]
7-12/5/10 (First stage naming survey)	1,018	70.2%	+/-3%
18-20/5/10 (Second stage rating survey)	1,015	72.5%	+/-1.9

[5] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from May 7 to 12. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), League of Social Democrats (LSD) and Civic Party (CP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from May 18 to 20, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. In the survey series of August and November 2009, our research team eliminated Frontier from the list. However, since there were news of Frontier reported in newspaper in January 1 rally this year, we have decided to put it back to the list since last time. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	18-25/8/09	19-23/11/09	4-9/2/10	18-20/5/10		Latest change
Sample base	1,004	1,001	1,060	1,015		--
Overall response rate	64.6%	76.7%	67.3%	72.5%		--
Finding /Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[6]	Recognition rate
HKCTU	51.1 {2}	51.3 {3}	52.8{1}[8]	49.9+/-1.3{1}	85%	-2.9[8]
FTU	52.2 {1}	51.7 {2}	51.3 {2}[9]	47.7+/-1.4{2}	88%	-3.6[8]
HKASPDMC	47.0 {7}	46.6 {8}	50.0 {4}[8]	47.6+/-1.6{3}	85%	-2.4[8]
ADPL	49.9 {3}	50.1 {5}	51.3 {3}[9]	47.4+/-1.2{4}	76%	-3.9[8]
DP	49.7 {4}	48.4 {7}[8]	49.9 {5}[8]	46.6+/-1.3{5}	93%	-3.3[8]
Frontier	--	--	49.4{6}	45.0+/-1.5{6}	74%	-4.4[8]
CP	49.5 {5}	50.2 {4}	48.9{7}	44.5+/-1.6{7}	88%	-4.4[8]
DAB	49.0 {6}	48.9{6}	48.1{8}	43.0+/-1.7{8}	92%	-5.1[8]
LP	44.6 {8}	44.9 {9}	45.6{9}	40.8+/-1.3{9}	88%	-4.8[8]
LSD	40.3 {9}	40.6 {10}	39.1{10}	36.6+/-1.7{10}	89%	-2.5[8]
NWS	49.8[7]	51.8 {1}[8]	53.4[7][8]	49.8+/-1.4[7]	71%	-3.6[8]
Civil Force	--	--	--	42.6+/-1.9[7]	47%	--
LDF	--	--	42.9[7]	--	--	--
Savantas Policy Institute	--	47.5[7]	--	--	--	--
HKDF	--	46.2[7]	--	--	--	--
AFA	38.2 {10}	--	--	--	--	--
HYK	41.7[7]	--	--	--	--	--

[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[7] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] The ratings of FTU and ADPL are 51.34 and 51.29 respectively in 2 decimal places. Therefore, FTU and ADPL ranked at 2nd and 3rd places respectively.

Findings obtained in mid-May showed that, the best-known political group was the Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) which attained 49.9 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) scored 47.7 and 47.6 marks respectively, ranked 2nd and 3rd. The 4th to 8th places were Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), Democratic Party (DP), Frontier, Civic Party (CP) and Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), attaining 47.4, 46.6, 45.0, 44.5 and 43.0 marks respectively. The 9th and 10th places fell to Liberal Party (LP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD), with a respective score of 40.8 and 36.6. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 47.8 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS) and Civil Force obtained a support rating of 49.8 and 42.6 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-25/8/09	19-23/11/09	4-9/2/10	18-20/5/10	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[10]	Overall ranking[11]
HKCTU	51.1	51.3	52.8	49.9	4	51.3	{1}
FTU	52.2	51.7	51.3	47.7	4	50.7	{2}
ADPL	49.9	50.1	51.3	47.4	4	49.7	{3}
DP	49.7	48.4	49.9	46.6	4	48.6	{4}
CP	49.5	50.2	48.9	44.5	4	48.3	{5}
HKASPDMC	47.0	46.6	50.0	47.6	4	47.8	{6}
DAB	49.0	48.9	48.1	43.0	4	47.2	{7}
LP	44.6	44.9	45.6	40.8	4	44.0	{8}
LSD	40.3	40.6	39.1	36.6	4	39.1	{9}
Frontier	[12]	[12]	49.4	45.0	2	47.2	{10}
NWS	[12]	51.8	[12]	[12]	1	51.8	{11}
AFA	38.2	[12]	[12]	[12]	1	38.2	{12}

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top 9 political groups were all listed for four times. HKCTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 51.3 marks. FTU, ADPL and DP ranked 2nd to 4th, attaining 50.7, 49.7 and 48.6 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 5th to 9th ranks fell to CP, HKASPDMC, DAB, LP and LSD with respective scores of 48.3, 47.8, 47.2, 44.0 and 39.1. Frontier was listed for two times and ranked 10th, attaining 47.2 marks. NWS and AFA were listed for once, with 51.8 and 38.2 marks and ranked 11th and 12th.

Herewith the contact information of survey on people's most familiar political figures:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages[13]
18-20/5/10	1,015	72.5%	+/-3%

[13] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

This survey on people's most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years, with results initially released through our publication POP Express until October 2006 when we began to release them online. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of "top 10 political figures" using our usual "top 10" or "top 5" series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our "top 10 political figures" survey by just recording and analyzing the "naming" results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. As for the rating part, we only conduct supplementary rating surveys to cover those listed in the top 10 political figures but not covered in other rating surveys. Take our latest survey as an example, our supplementary rating survey of Martin Lee, Szeto Wah and Anson Chan will be conducted later this month, and the results will be uploaded onto our POP Site as soon as they are ready. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other "top 10" rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for "people's most familiar political figures", as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on "people's most familiar political figures", other rankings beyond the "Top 10" can be found in the POP Site:

Date of survey	26-30/11/08		19-22/5/09		19-23/11/09		18-20/5/10		Average ranking over the past 10 survey[20]
Sample base	1,002		1,011		1,001		1,015		--
Overall response rate	67.3%		68.3%		76.7%		72.5%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)[14]	+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		--
Latest finding/Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	--
Donald Tsang	40%	1	44%	1	41%	1	46%	1	1.2
Wong Yuk-man	32%	4	29%[16]	3	22%[17]	6	37%	2	31.0
Leung Kwok-hung	33%[15]	2	29%[16]	2	22%[17]	7	34%	3	6.8
Henry Tang	19%	10	26%[16]	6	35%	2	33%	4	5.3
Audrey Eu	26%	5	21%	9	21%	8	30%	5	8.6
Martin Lee	23%	7	19%	10	33%	3	28%[18]	6	4.2
Szeto Wah	--	--	--	--	--	--	28%[18]	7	14.3
Emily Lau	33%[15]	3	27%	4	19%	10	24%	8	9.2
Anson Chan	19%	11	15%	13	20%	9	20%[19]	9	8.9
Alan Leong	--	--	--	--	--	--	20%[19]	10	17.0

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] The percentages of respondents who could name Leung Kwok-hung and Emily Lau were 33.2% and 33.1% respectively. Hence Leung ranked the 2nd while Lau was placed at 3rd rank.
[16] The percentages of respondents who could name Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man were 28.8% and 28.6% respectively. Hence Leung ranked the 2nd while Wong was placed at 3rd rank. The percentages of respondents who could name Regina Ip and Henry Tang were 26.0% and 25.8% respectively. Hence Ip ranked the 5th while Tang was placed at 6th rank.
[17] The percentages of respondents who could name Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung were 22.4% and 21.7% respectively. Hence Wong ranked the 6th while Leung was placed at 7th rank.
[18] The percentages of respondents who could name Martin Lee and Szeto Wah were 27.9% and 27.8% respectively. Hence Lee ranked the 6th while Szeto was placed at 7th rank.
[19] The percentages of respondents who could name Anson Chan and Alan Leong were 20.0% and 19.6% respectively. Hence Chan ranked the 9th while Leong was placed at 10th rank.
[20] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted on October 20-21, 2005. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

In our naming survey conducted in the mid-May, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Donald Tsang, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung were the top three. The corresponding percentages of respondents who could name these figures were 46%, 37% and 34%. Henry Tang and Audrey Eu occupied the 4th and 5th places with corresponding recognition rates of 33% and 30%. The 6th to 10th ranks fell to Martin Lee, Szeto Wah, Emily Lau, Anson Chan and Alan Leong respectively. Their corresponding recognition rates were 28%, 28%, 24%, 20% and 20%. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997.

Herewith some of the results of our "people's most familiar political figures" surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

11-14/4/05──19-23/11/09[21] Overall rank Pol. figures Av. rank for 10 surveys   Overall rank Pol. figures Av. rank for 10 surveys 1 Donald Tsang 1.2   11 Selina Chow 14.1 2 Martin Lee 3.8   12 Lee Cheuk-yan 14.4 3 Henry Tang 5.2   13 Szeto Wah 15.2 4 Leung Kwok-hung 7.4   14 Lee Wing-tat 17.6 5 Anson Chan 9.1   15 Alan Leong 18.2 5 Emily Lau 9.1   16 Regina Ip 18.8 7 Audrey Eu 9.5   17 Tung Chee-hwa 20.4 8 James Tien 10.1   18 Tam Yiu-chung 21.3 9 Rita Fan 10.4   19 Ronny Tong 24.6 10 Jasper Tsang 11.1   20 Albert Ho 24.9

20-21/10/05──18-20/5/10[21] Overall rank Pol. figures Av. rank for 10 surveys   Overall rank Pol. figures Av. rank for 10 surveys 1 Donald Tsang 1.2   11 Lee Cheuk-yan 13.0 2 Martin Lee 4.2   12 Szeto Wah 14.3 3 Henry Tang 5.3   13 Selina Chow 16.3 4 Leung Kwok-hung 6.8   14 Alan Leong 17.0 5 Audrey Eu 8.6   14 Regina Ip 17.0 6 Anson Chan 8.9   16 Lee Wing-tat 20.3 7 Emily Lau 9.2   17 Tam Yiu-chung 20.8 8 Jasper Tsang 11.0   18 Wong Yan-lung 22.0 9 Rita Fan 11.1   19 Tung Chee-hwa 22.3 10 James Tien 11.7   20 Albert Ho 22.4

[21] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Donald Tsang has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 1.2. Martin Lee has the 2nd highest overall rank with an average ranking of 4.2. The overall ranks of Henry Tang and Leung Kwok-hung come 3rd and 4th respectively, with average rankings of 5.3 and 6.8. The overall ranks of Audrey Eu and Anson Chan come 5th and 6th with an average ranking of 8.6 and 8.9 respectively. The 7th to 10th overall ranks go to Emily Lau, Jasper Tsang, Rita Fan and James Tien, with corresponding average rankings of 9.2, 11.0, 11.1 and 11.7.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "In our latest survey of "Top 10 Political Groups", the ratings of all groups have dropped significantly. Many of them are either at new or record low. The row over political reform and full-fledged by-election has apparently taken its toll on all political parties. In terms of relative rankings, compared to three months ago, except the swap in positions of HKASPDMC and ADPL, now occupying the 3rd and 4th places, all other positions have remained unchanged. HKCTU continues to top the list, with FTU trailing behind. As for the ranking of political figures, according to our latest survey, Donald Tsang continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong, support rates aside. Compared to 6 months ago, 8 people continue to remain on the 'top 10' list, with Regina Ip and Jasper Tsang having dropped out of the list and replaced by Szeto Wah and Alan Leong. Over the past 5 years, Donald Tsang, Martin Lee, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung and Audrey Eu are Hong Kong people's most familiar political figures. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily" in our POP Site."

• June 1, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Annual June Fourth Survey