HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of the CE, the Government, and Legislative CouncillorsBack

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that CE Donald Tsang's popularity has rebounded slightly from that of two weeks ago. Tsang's support rating has slightly increased by 1.1 marks, while his approval rate has increased by 3 percentage points. His net popularity now stands at negative 9 percentage points, around that registered a month ago. Similarly, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has not changed much over the last month, its net popularity now stands at negative 10 percentage points. As for our 'top 10 Legislative Councillors' survey, because a number of councillors have dropped out of the survey because of their resignation, four new names appear in our latest survey, including Regina Ip, Lee Wing-tat and Lau Wong-fat who re-enter our "top 10" list, while Paul Tse is a newcomer. In terms of absolute ratings, compared to three months ago, among those remaining on the list, only Emily Lau's rating shows significant change, having dropped 2.9 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip re-enters the list and occupies the first place, Audrey Eu drops one position to become second, Lee Cheuk-yan goes up one place to take the third place, Albert Ho remains on the fifth, Emily Lau drops three places to become the sixth, Jasper Tsang drops one place to become the seventh, Tam Yiu-chung drops one place to become the eighth, while others were not on the list last year. Director of POP Robert Chung explains, the "top 10" survey is targeted at individual Legco members, in parallel to POP's survey on the overall performance of Legco members as a group. However, the list only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Moreover, because it was only on the last day of our survey period that Legco President Jasper Tsang said he is ready to quit his presidential post to vote for the political reform package if needed, the effect of his words is not reflected in this survey. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 10 Legislative Councillors is 1,020 successful interviews, not 1,020 x 69.8% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey and of the survey on popularity of Chief Executive and SAR Government is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 69.5% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, the HKSAR Government and top ten Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2009 year-end.

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey of popularity of CE and SAR Government:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]
26-29/4/10	1,010	69.5%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	22-27/2/10	1-3/3/10	23-25/3/10	7-12/4/10	26-29/4/10	Latest Change
Sample base	1,021	1,005	1,012	1,009	1,010	--
Overall response rate	69.9%	64.2%	69.3%	65.3%	69.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	53.0[9]	53.1	52.5	50.7[9]	51.8 +/-1.3	+1.1
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	36%[9]	42%[9]	38%[9]	34%[9]	37% +/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	43%[9]	42%	46%[9]	49%	46% +/-3%	-3%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]	30%	--	30%	--	28% +/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8]	34%[9]	--	35%	--	38% +/-3%	+3%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.8 marks, and 37% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 28% were satisfied, whereas 38% were dissatisfied.

Herewith the contact information for the latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings[10]
15-25/4/10 (First stage naming survey)	1,020	69.8%	+/-3%
26-29/4/10 (Second stage rating survey)	1,010	69.5%	+/-1.5

[10] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in the mid-April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best, excluding the five councillors who had resigned in late January, namely Tanya Chan, Alan Leong, Leung Kwok-hung, Albert Chan and Wong Yuk-man. As a result, Emily Lau, Audrey Eu, Lau Kong-wah, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in the late April, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	21-23/4/09	14-18/7/09	15-19/10/09	18-21/1/10	26-29/4/10	Latest Change
Sample base	1,014	1,010	1,002	1,013	1,010	--
Overall response rate	68.9%	67.4%	69.9%	66.9%	69.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[11]	--
Regina Ip	56.5 {3}	60.8 {3}[13]	61.9 {2}	--	55.1 {1} +/-1.1	--
Audrey Eu	59.9 {1}	63.0 {1}[13]	62.4 {1}	55.1 {1}[13]	53.9 {2} +/-1.5	-1.2
Lee Cheuk-yan	55.0 {5}[13]	58.9 {4}[13]	57.7 {4}	52.1 {4}[13]	52.4 {3} +/-1.5	+0.3
Lee Wing-tat	--	--	--	--	51.6 {4} +/-1.3	--
Albert Ho	55.9 {4}	57.7 {5}[13]	52.8 {6}[13]	51.8 {5}	51.2 {5} +/-1.3	-0.6
Emily Lau	50.8 {7}	57.0 {6}[13]	51.3 {7}[13]	53.7 {3}[13]	50.8 {6} +/-1.5	-2.9[13]
Jasper Tsang	53.8 {6}[13]	54.9 {7}	57.3 {5}[13]	50.1 {6}[13]	50.3 {7} +/-1.3	+0.2
Tam Yiu-chung	--	--	--	48.7 {7}	48.7 {8} +/-1.3	--
Paul Tse	--	--	--	--	47.5 {9} +/-1.2	--
Lau Wong-fat	--	--	--	--	42.1 {10} +/-1.4	--
Cheung Man-kwong	56.3[12]	--	--	--	53.4[12] +/-1.3	--
Lau Kong-wah	49.4[12][13]	52.8 {8}[13]	53.2[12]	43.5[12][13]	46.0[12] +/-1.4	+2.5[13]
Alan Leong[14]	58.0 {2}	60.9 {2}[13]	60.1 {3}	53.8 {2}[13]	--	--
Albert Chan[14]	41.2 {8}[13]	46.0[12][13]	--	38.5 {8}	--	--
Wong Yuk-man[14]	35.0 {9}[13]	38.9 {9}[13]	35.5 {8}[13]	35.3 {9}	--	--
Leung Kwok-hung[14]	32.2 {10}[13]	34.5 {10}[13]	31.6 {10}[13]	32.8 {10}	--	--
Tanya Chan[14]	--	--	--	52.6[12]	--	--
Kam Nai-wai	--	--	32.6 {9}	--	--	--
Ronny Tong	--	--	58.8[12]	--	--	--
James To	--	--	55.8[12]	--	--	--
Fred Li	--	59.6[12]	--	--	--	--

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.5 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[14] Councillors who resigned in January, so they were excluded in this round of survey.

The latest survey conducted in late April showed that Regina Ip was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 55.1 marks while Audrey Eu and Lee Cheuk-yan ranked the 2nd and 3rd with 53.9 and 52.4 marks correspondingly. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Lee Wing-tat, Albert Ho, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang, who attained 51.6, 51.2, 50.8 and 50.3 marks respectively. The 8th to 10th went to Tam Yiu-chung, Paul Tse and Lau Wong-fat who attained 48.7, 47.5 and 42.1 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 52.8 marks, while that for the top 10 was 50.4 marks. For this latest survey, Cheung Man-kwong and Lau Kong-wah obtained support ratings of 53.4 and 46.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	14-18/7/09	15-19/10/09	18-21/1/10	26-29/4/10	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[15]	Overall ranking[16]
Audrey Eu	63.0	62.4	55.1	53.9	4	58.6	1
Lee Cheuk-yan	58.9	57.7	52.1	52.4	4	55.3	2
Albert Ho	57.7	52.8	51.8	51.2	4	53.4	3
Emily Lau	57.0	51.3	53.7	50.8	4	53.2	4
Jasper Tsang	54.9	57.3	50.1	50.3	4	53.1	5
Regina Ip	60.8	61.9	-	55.1	3	59.3	6
Alan Leong[17]	60.9	60.1	53.8	-	3	58.3	7
Wong Yuk-man[17]	38.9	35.5	35.3	-	3	36.5	8
Leung Kwok-hung[17]	34.5	31.6	32.8	-	3	33.0	9
Tam Yiu-chung	-	-	48.7	48.7	2	48.7	10
Lau Kong-wah	52.8	-	-	-	1	52.8	11
Lee Wing-tat	-	-	-	51.6	1	51.6	12
Paul Tse	-	-	-	47.5	1	47.5	13
Lau Wong-fat	-	-	-	42.1	1	42.1	14
Albert Chan[17]	-	-	38.5	-	1	38.5	15
Kam Nai-wai	-	32.6	-	-	1	32.6	16

[15] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
[16] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[17] Councillors who resigned in January.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that five Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 58.6 marks, Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang who ranked the 2nd to 5th and attained 55.3, 53.4, 53.2 and 53.1 marks correspondingly. Regina Ip, Alan Leong, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung have been on the list for three times, attaining 59.3, 58.3, 36.5 and 33.0 marks on average, and ranked the 6th to 9th. Tam Yiu-chung have been on the list for two times and attaining 48.7 on average, ranked at 10th. Lau Kwong-wah, Lee Wing-tat, Paul Tse, Lau Wong-fat, Albert Chan and Kam Nai-wai have been on the list once and ranked the 11th to 16th, with 52.8, 51.6, 47.5, 42.1, 38.5 and 32.6 marks correspondingly.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that CE Donald Tsang's popularity has rebounded slightly from that of two weeks ago. Tsang's support rating has slightly increased by 1.1 marks, while his approval rate has increased by 3 percentage points. His net popularity now stands at negative 9 percentage points, around that registered a month ago. Similarly, the satisfaction rate of the SAR Government has not changed much over the last month, its net popularity now stands at negative 10 percentage points. As for our "top 10 Legislative Councillors" survey, because a number of councillors have dropped out of the survey because of their resignation, four new names appear in our latest survey, including Regina Ip, Lee Wing-tat and Lau Wong-fat who re-enter our "top 10" list, while Paul Tse is a newcomer. In terms of absolute ratings, compared to three months ago, among those remaining on the list, only Emily Lau's rating shows significant change, having dropped 2.9 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip re-enters the list and occupies the first place, Audrey Eu drops one position to become second, Lee Cheuk-yan goes up one place to take the third place, Albert Ho remains on the fifth, Emily Lau drops three places to become the sixth, Jasper Tsang drops one place to become the seventh, Tam Yiu-chung drops one place to become the eighth, while others were not on the list last year. It should be noted that our "top 10" survey is targeted at individual Legco members, in parallel to our survey on the overall performance of Legco members as a group. However, our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 45 councillors this time may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the "top 10" list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of our survey figures using detailed records shown in the "Opinion Daily" feature page of our POP Site. One thing is certain, because it was only on the last day of our survey period that Legco President Jasper Tsang said he is ready to quit his presidential post to vote for the political reform package if needed, the effect of his words is not reflected in this survey."

• May 6, 2010 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: 2010 Legislative Council By-election Survey Second Summary Report
• May 11, 2010 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials