HKU POP SITE releases POP-NOW survey on political reform for the eighth timeBack

Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In November 2009, POP came into agreement with the "now News Channel" for a project called "Joint Public Opinion Research Project on Political Reform". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of political reform, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular and ad-hoc opinion surveys and other public opinion studies after the launching of public consultation by the government. The survey results will first be released in the "now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption. "now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that "now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. There has been a total of seven releases of survey findings from December 2009 to March 2010. Today we release the results of our latest survey. Please cite the source of the figures when using them

With respect to the Government's proposal of Chief Executive election in 2012, results showed that 44% of the respondents supported and 29% opposed this proposal. As for the Government's proposal on the Legislative Council election in 2012, it attained a support rate of 39%, versus 35% opposition. The mean quantified scores for both questions are 3.1 and 2.9 respectively, which means "half-half". Regarding the passing or veto of the Government's proposal, 48% of the respondents think that the Legco should pass the proposal while 33% think the Legco should veto it. Latest findings of other survey questions are as follows:

Results showed that 26% supported the de-facto referendum in five districts, 53% opposed it. As for the Legislative Council by-election to be held on May 16, 44% of all registered voters said that they would vote that day, 45% said they would not. The following are the in-depth analyses of these two questions：

Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on May 3, 2010 in the "now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Political Reform" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.

Q: Results show that those who want Legco to pass the political reform proposal has increased by 2 percentage points while those who say "don't know" has dropped. Does it mean people's stand on the political reform proposals is getting clear?

A: We add this question after the government issues the political reform proposal. Our question has incorporated the main points raised by different people, including non-progress if the proposal is vetoed, but delayed universal suffrage if the proposal is passed. Our survey shows that the figures have not changed much over a week or so. More people want Legco to pass the proposal, but the figure is still less than half. There is still no majority view.

Q: Do we need 50% to establish the majority view?

A: Opinion polling is a statistical science. There is not much difference between 49% and 51% statistically, but their symbolic meanings are very different. If a support rate goes up to 2/3 or 65%, we can no longer say that opinion is split.

Q: Does this result imply that there is no real choice for the people?

A: Our repeated surveys show that those in support of the government's CE election proposal never exceeds 45%, while those in support of its Legco election proposal never exceeds 40%, which is significantly lower, probably due to controversies over the future of functional constituencies. Since it is still not clear whether the two proposals would be handled separately or en bloc, with support rates falling short of 50% and the by-elections fast approaching, there are still undercurrents in public opinion development.

Q: In the past few weeks, many people have voiced their opinion on political reform and the by-election, but there seems little change in people's view on the referendum movement. How do we interpret their views on the referendum movement and the by-election?

A: Our repeated surveys have consistently showed that about 50% to 60% of the people oppose the referendum movement. No doubt the advocates would like to see the by-election as a referendum. However, our survey shows that people who oppose the referendum movement might also vote. After all, there could be a variety of reasons for people to cast their ballots, including the execution of one's civil responsibility, to support or oppose certain candidates, to vote for a referendum motion, and so on. The referendum advocates have not yet clearly defined what constitutes a successful referendum movement, how to carry the motion, and how it would bind councilors during the Legco vote. The government, on the other hand, has also dampened people's propensity to vote by taking a cold stand. It has not encouraged voters to exercise their civil responsibility, including the use of blank votes. There are two more weeks before the election, the positions taken by the government and the referendum advocates on the above issues would affect public opinion in the run up to the election.

Q: Would people's propensity to vote still change?

A: Based on our previous election surveys of the same time frame, the final turnout rate may well be less than 30%. If referendum advocates really see this by-election as an issue voting, they must clearly spell out the motion of the referendum, its adoption benchmarks, and the binding effect of election results, including their interpretation of blank votes. Only by so doing can they encourage democratic participation by allowing people who support or oppose the government proposals to exercise their civil responsibility, within the democratic framework but beyond opinion polling.